Archive for Trade Possibilities

The best part of dynasty leagues is that trade behavior can mimic real baseball. When you’re in a deep 20 team format, the league splits into contenders and rebuilders. The prices for win-now talent and top prospects often mirror what we observe in reality. It’s fun.

Over the weekend, a buddy of mine asked me about a trade proposal he received in his dynasty league. He covets Nolan Arenado (who doesn’t), and a rival finally made an offer – Arenado and Dallas Keuchel for Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Sano, Rafael Devers, Josh Bell, and a 2018 draft pick.

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There is no denying that this year’s free agent class is weak, especially compared to recent years that all had multiple big-ticket stars. Yoenis Cespedes moves the needle as do Edwin Encarnacion and closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but that’s about it in the top tier. The weakness of the free agent market offers hope at a robust trade market this winter. The league tilted toward a have/have-nots setup this past year with 11 teams finishing at least 20 games out of first in their division, up from seven each of the last two seasons.

The contenders will be looking to buy from the pretenders while the pretenders will be get a chance to stockpile young talent for their next big run. The turnaround time in baseball has shortened as teams are open trusting young players much more these days. There are many huge names who could feasibly be moved and while most of them won’t be, I think we will see some superstars change teams via trade. I’ve plucked three interesting pitchers and mapped out a trade path for each. I’ll have a trio of hitters soon, too.

Chris Sale

• To StL: Sale

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“The trade deadline is fast approaching.” – Hard to believe that time is here.  This season has flown by, hasn’t it? With just one week before rosters solidify for the final stretch, now is as good a time as ever to ensure new Ottoneu owners are fully prepared for the future, which is now fast becoming the off-season.  Joe recently outlined the mindset that’s needed to approach the trade deadline strategically, depending on your place in the standings, but since it’s also my job to cover Ottoneu on these pages, I’ll take a more mechanical look at what happens at this critical point in the season.

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This is the weird part of the fantasy baseball season. Trade deadlines are rapidly approaching or have recently passed in leagues. Gamers in keeper and dynasty leagues range from pushing their chips in the middle to chase the crown this year to playing for future seasons. As the season winds down, I love looking at recent performance. This is especially true in keeper leagues. Who’s playing well down the stretch? Have these hot performers made tangible and sustainable changes that could improve their stock going into 2017? Is a youngster getting a look and playing well? Let’s pick through the data together. Read the rest of this entry »

It didn’t take long for a team to acquire Oswaldo Arcia after the Twins opted to designate him for assignment. He’ll get a fresh start for the injury-depleted Rays. With the non-waiver trade deadline on August 1st, Joey Gallo could finally get another crack at the majors soon. I’ve also got my eyes on a lefty throwing premium cheddar. James Paxton is lighting up the radar gun and received some love from Paul a few weeks ago. Read the rest of this entry »

Fantasy gamers who drafted Matt Harvey and Sonny Gray haven’t gotten the return on their investment they’ve hoped for. Harvey’s strung together three straight strong starts, but Gray turned in a rough start Wednesday night after a pair of solid starts following his disabled list stint. I loved Harvey coming into the year, but I was down on Gray. For the rest of the year, though, I’m buying into both pitching well. Read the rest of this entry »

This isn’t necessarily a free agent/waiver piece, though, these three players are under owned and available in many leagues. If this trio of players isn’t available in your league, don’t fret. I’ve chosen to highlight them because I believe their rest-of-season value outpaces their current production or how they’re being valued — at least how I perceive them to be valued based on their ownership rates. If they’re owned, consider trading for them. Read the rest of this entry »

Originally, I intended on identifying pitchers who are worth buying based on their SwStr% for this article. And then I got hung up on Kenta Maeda’s work this year and couldn’t pull myself away. Alas, as the title of this article suggests, you won’t be getting a piece about trade/free agent targets based on SwStr%, but you will get a full-blown endorsement of acquiring the services of Maeda. Read the rest of this entry »

I have made a lot of trades in my fantasy baseball “career”.  It’s one of the parts of the game I enjoy most, but I’ve learned over the years that there is a wide range of comfort among owners when it comes to shaking up their rosters via trade.  For some fantasy owners, the process and preparation required to put together a good trade is a burden, and for others the uncertainty of the resulting impact (“will this really help my team?”) and/or the feedback from their league (“did I win or lose this trade?”) is enough to cause anxiety.

Part of the reason I enjoy fantasy trades is because I’ve had the benefit of corporate negotiation training throughout my professional career.  While it’s certainly true that my fantasy baseball experience has had a positive impact on my professional bargaining skills, there is no doubt my vocational training has made me more confident (and successful) in the fantasy “trade room”, too.  Today I’ll share a little of what I’ve learned throughout my own trade history in hopes of offering something you can use as well.

How to Talk Trade

All too often it’s not necessarily what you say but how you say it that makes the difference.  What follows are some alternative ways to phrase common trade responses that might make the difference between closing a deal or stopping one early in it’s tracks.

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Around this time of year when trade season starts open up in earnest, you consistently hear one maxim: buy-low, sell-high. It’s the tried-and-true method of trading and is ideal for what I hope are obvious reasons. However, it’s a lot easier said than done, particularly in the internet age of fantasy baseball. The statistical revolution and internet have colluded to equip all fantasy managers with any amount of data they desire about their players. You will still see lopsided deals, but outside of blatant cases of collusion, a deal that you deem as lopsided is still just a difference in player valuation.

The market inefficiency is in buying-high (I would be much more cautious with the inverse, but there could also be a market to exploit by selling low). Given how often fantasy managers are looking to sell high, there is a larger pool players to choose from and of course there is also more willingness to move them which adds to the likelihood of a deal getting done instead trying to pry someone your leaguemate wasn’t looking to sell in the first place. Buying high is easier, but it can be tricky (You don’t want to get smoked, but we’re talking buying-high, not buying-highest. you should never buy-highest… in any sense of the word). However, some players are seen as sell-high candidates while having a good shot at maintaining a high level of production and their price won’t always be commensurate with said production making them the ideal buy-high candidates.

Here are five such candidates:

John Jaso: The hang up with Jaso is that he only has first base eligibility and the power-hitting focus at the position leaves Jaso coming up short. His career high of 10 HRs came back in 2012. While he does lack the power to carry first base, he is an interesting corner infielder or utility as a high batting average hitter atop a proficient lineup. Plus, let’s not completely sleep on the fact that he has hit three homers, putting him on pace to crush his previous high.

He’s pacing for 14 more while the projections see 6-10 more (6 for ZiPS, 10 for Steamer & Depth Charts). Above all else, he needs to stay healthy, something that has been a career-long challenge as he’s never cleared 110 games played. If the perfect world scenario plays out and he maintains this pace, he’ll be this year’s Logan Forsythe. I’d settle for this year’s Mark Canha.

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