03/23/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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TOUT REVIEW

• AL Tout Wars Review

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This past weekend, I missed out on one of my favorite weekends when I head to New York for the Tout Wars 15-team mixed auction and the NFBC Main Event. While the NFBC Main Event was postponed, the Tout Wars auction went on but from the confines of our homes. Here are a few observations on a team I may not get to manage this year and how can these industry drafts help the people in their own leagues.

Thanks to Fred Zinkie and Tanner Bell who both jumped on Skype with me to bounce ideas off and at least giving me someone to talk to.

Preparation

Simply, I have a whole book on how I prepped for the auction. I didn’t deviate from it except in the following few ways. Each will be incorporated into future editions of The Process.

First, I split apart the player pool into four groups: Catchers, non-catchers, starters, and closers. The tendencies of the league are set with each group having their own valuations. The big change for me is a separate catcher group. I didn’t go through the whole replacement level valuations that boost up some catchers into the top-20 players and mess with the auction dollar distribution. Instead, I made them their own player pool. After catchers messed up my hitter valuations in LABR, I adjusted and fewer in auction adjustments were needed.
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I wanted to not write too many draft recaps this preseason. I didn’t want draft recaps to simply stand in for analysis. Turns out we might not have baseball until June or July or maybe ever. Draft recaps might be all we have in this pandemic hellscape. (I’m being dramatic, I know. But, also, maybe I’m not!)

I did recap my first-ever Tout Wars draft last year. Honestly, it went poorly. I didn’t click through the link to read what I wrote, but if I try to make it seem like I did well… I promise you, I didn’t. I ended the SiriusXM stream chastising myself for drafting so poorly. It’s true!

I did, however, recover nicely in-season once I finally learned how to use OnRoto and I got a handle on what seemed to me like the optimal roster-building strategy. My year-end roster looked nothing like my drafted roster, and I was able to navigate FAAB effectively enough to wiggle my way into a semi-finals matchup. (I was a benched Kole Calhoun home run away from beating Clay Link and heading to the finals to face Ian Kahn, where he would have annihilated me unceremoniously.)

This year, I’d like to think I fared much better. I actually calculated projecwhatevted points this time! I’m sad we all couldn’t draft in person, but I’m more than happy to draft online at Fantrax in the name of social distancing.

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When we make big mistakes in our fantasy auctions, “wait ’til next year” is a tough pill to swallow. My 2019 Tout Wars mixed auction (15-team OBP league) got off to a bad start from which I did not recover, but last Saturday, I finally got a chance to redeem myself. A year ago, the bidding on Mike Trout went up to $56, and I was prepared to go a dollar higher. Then I froze. In an effort to make up for my reticence, I went on to overbid on several risky players.

In the aftermath of that debacle, I vowed to be more aggressive in my bidding on top players, particularly the safer ones. Not only did I not want to get shut out like I did in last year’s auction, but it seemed like a good strategy since I trust myself to either find good players in the endgame or find suitable replacements in FAAB bidding.
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03/17/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer
• @PitcherList – Nick Pollack

TOUT WARS REVIEW

• Paul, Justin, and Nick review Justin’s NL team and then dive into the H2H mixer that both Paul & Nick were in!

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Every year, a group of some of the finest fantasy baseball analysts get together for a weekend of auctions in New York City. However, due to recent events, the weekend itself was cancelled, but Tout Wars happened in virtual form.  This was my second year in the NL Only league and I was none too thrilled to be doing the draft online.

I love being in Tout Wars, but I am not a fan of doing online auctions. I feel like there are things lost when you are not face-to-face. There is no ability to read the room. I also typically use draft software and paper simultaneously which become harder to do while also managing online draft software. Of course, I made it even more difficult on myself by live streaming all five and a half hours of the auction. That being said, I feel good about the team I drafted.  Read the rest of this entry »

Right around this time each year, I gush about the wonderful weekend devoted to Tout Wars, including our party at Foley’s, mingling with friends and industry folk, and, of course, participating in the AL-Only auction. I then share my team, my strategy going in, and my thought process in purchasing the players ultimately finding their way onto my roster. Unfortunately, COVID-19 has changed everything. Initially, the plan was to keep the weekend events as scheduled. That plan then (rightfully) changed pretty quickly, with all auctions/drafts moving online, and live activities canceled. Then last Thursday, the remainder of Spring Training was canceled and the start of the regular season was to be delayed by at least two weeks. We now had no idea when the season would begin, which makes valuing players even more challenging. Although the season was to be delayed indefinitely, the Tout Wars league auctions/drafts were held.

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As of this writing, we are on pick 430 in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold league. You can follow along with the rationalization of all of me 29 (to date) picks here. Highlights include:

Eaton… yawn.

And

Chooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

There are 14 other owners in the league, all industry giants who know how to run a deep league draft. So let’s shine the spotlight on some of the players going in the late-300s to early-400s. While I can’t prise open their skulls to raid their mind grapes, I can probably puzzle out why certain guys were targeted. Remember, this is an OBP league with no trading or in-season waiver moves and weekly lineups.

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Season Two of Tout Wars: Draft and Hold kicked off earlier this afternoon. It is a 15-team league comprised of various industry bigwigs and heavyweights. This article will present an ongoing narrative of my attempts to improve upon my debut performance of fifth place.

The Draft and Hold format is designed to limit in-season management. We have no trades or waivers. Instead, we select 50 players throughout the course of Spring Training to fill a standard deep roster (2C, 5OF, CI, MI, UTIL). Our only resources are what we pick now. We can make weekly edits to our lineups.

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In Tout Wars this year, have been graced with four suspect closers but they’ve caused me to ponder how to handle the “riches”. The issue is that they are not stable and I’d not be surprised if all four were out of a job next month. I polled my Twitter followers to see which one they had the most faith in.

I have the following four closers in @ToutWars. Who do you think will have the most Saves at your season's end?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) April 24, 2019

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