Archive for Streaming Two-Starters

Towards the end of last season, FanGraphs partnered up with SaberSim, a site that provides daily baseball projections by running thousands of simulations of each game every day, utilizing Steamer handedness-split rest-of-season projections as a base. The sim matches up the specific lineup of each team against the pitchers of each opposing team. The simulated games then operate as actual baseball games operate, and each individual plate appearance is simulated until the game is complete, at which point the process is repeated. While the raw projections available on FanGraphs and the SaberSim site itself are helpful in their own right, digging into some of the player and game projections, both for the current day and next, can help illuminate players to target for your season-long and DFS lineups.

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We’re only halfway through the first week results-wise — the structuring of this mandates that we’re always playing a little bit of catch up — but the early returns on Week 1 have been positive. Juan Nicasio got dusted up a bit, but Matt Moore and Nick Tropeano put forth strong efforts, and hopefully that’ll continue.

Here’s a snapshot of our Week 1 efforts to-date. If you’d like to look at the spreadsheet, maybe I’ll post it. And if you don’t care, that’s fine too:

1-1 record
3.00 ERA
9.0 K/9
1.9 K/BB
1.67 WHIP

I don’t know about you all — could write a book with that caveat — but at least fantasy-wise I think of WHIP as a pitcher’s blood pressure. So in this case, this pitcher is like a guy with all the muscles and looks, but a ticker that’s about ready to explode. Clearly I’m not worried after just three starts, but the boys did play with fire a little bit this week. Especially Nicasio but even Tropeano, who had eight baserunners in just five innings. The matchup this weekend against the Twins should be a bit easier.

Here are this week’s recommendations (with team wRC+ in parenthesis):

LHP J.A. Happ – 10.8 percent ESPN – @BOS (124), v. OAK (71)

It was my mistake last week in using team wOBA; I had forgotten we’d switched to the more fair wRC+ at some point in last year’s stream, so I’ll use that moving forward. With Happ my intrigue is double-barrelled; I want to see just what he can do post-Searage, but also I want to hone in on guys with lower ownership than usual. I hemmed and hawed about going with either Phil Hughes or Ervin Santana, but both are owned over 20 percent and Hughes against Bryce Harper may not be an ideal matchup. For what it’s worth, I’m very enthused by his velocity — he’s reached 93-94 on multiple occasions this season — and his command. I just prefer Happ here. It’s the classic give and get with one really tough option and one that should be much easier, but I’ll take my chances with Happ, who was nails down the stretch for the Pirates last year. One thing I’ll be watching is his curve usage; early on, he’s gone back to it after scorning it with the Pirates. Read the rest of this entry »

Intro

Towards the end of last season, FanGraphs partnered up with SaberSim, a site that provides daily baseball (and hockey) projections fueled by a game simulator. While the raw projections available on FanGraphs and the SaberSim site itself are helpful in their own right, digging into some of the player and game projections, both for the current day and next, can help illuminate players to target for your season-long and DFS lineups.

Read the rest of this entry »

Hello again. We’re back for season for of breaking down two-start pitchers for the upcoming week. After two solid years, last year was a bit of a struggle:

35-48
4.66 ERA
7.1 K/9
2.2 BB/9
1.41 WHIP

I’ll completely understand if that’s turned you off from my #analysis, but I’m back again to try win over your hearts. Let’s see what we can do. As usual, I’m back trying to help guide you through the pitfalls of grabbing guys making two starts in the week to come, with the caveat of sub-50 percent ownership in ESPN leagues. If you think those guidelines are too high or low, please, please feel free to chime in on the comments section. The only way this can get better is through help from you, the reader.

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This is the last week of the season for #2xSP, and I just want to express my sincere gratitude to anyone still reading at this point in the season. It’s been a rocky one, but after two really solid seasons I guess it’s OK to go all Ricky Nolasco on the bit and throw up a clunker. Due to some (very) minor health reasons I’m taking a short winter hiatus, but I plan to be back in the saddle for opening day 2016. Be well, friends.

Here are the totals through week 23 (with updates from previous listing):

35-48 record (same)
4.66 ERA (-0.01)
7.1 K/9 (+0.1)
2.2 K/BB (-0.1)
1.41 WHIP (same)

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers usually pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandapPete21 (but not this week) whom you should give a follow:

LHP Daniel Norris – 6.4% ESPN – @TEX (96), @CWS (88)

I, like many others, have always loved Norris as a talent, and he’s been pretty good when he’s been healthy so far with the Tigers. ERA barely tells any of the story, and his 3.90 ERA in Motown is virtually the same as he had with the Jays (3.86), but he’s really cleaned up his rates if we’re going to compare the small-ish samplings (five starts with Toronto, six with Detroit). The strikeout rate is roughly the same and around the the league average, but Norris has walked one-third as many batters (by per nine rates) as he did with the Jays. Three of his six starts with Detroit have resulted in zero or one earned runs, and two of the other three were three runs apiece. The most worrisome thing here is durability, as he’s failed to pitch through the sixth in four of six starts. Mind you, the pickings were pretty slim this week as teams have been shutting players down and dipping deep into their 40-man bags of tricks to get creative this September. Should Norris see the back end of this week — and I expect that he will — you should be thusly rewarded. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, I have had making a two-start evaluator on my to-do list for a while. With the help of Jonah Pemstein, the project is done. A problem is its usefulness with only two weeks left in the season. I am going to roll it out anyway and take comments over the next couple of weeks. It will then be ready for full implementation to start next season.

The setup is pretty simple right now.
•Find the games a pitcher is expected to start this upcoming week.
• Determine the starters projected Steamer stats per start.
• Use my Standing Gain Points formula I calculated to start the season to give each pitcher a weekly value. Then rank them by this value.

This is all the data available for now, but running it for the first time I found a few ways to improve it going forward.
• I ran into a coding error for pitchers who have no more projected starts (end of the list like Hudson or Moore) according to Steamer. I am trying to get the depth charts updated to make sure this doesn’t happen in the future.
• On the same note, the stats for pitchers who are swingman (starter and reliever) may be a bit inflated because of the improved reliever rates.
• Wins are just funky but needed to show the value of the chance to pick up two Wins. Ideas?
• The strength of opponent and park factors are not shown or worked in yet. I am working on this portion now but wanted to make the list available before next week.

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UPDATE: Bolsinger is starting Sunday, so we’re rolling with Martin Perez (@OAK, @HOU) in his place.

We’re coming down the home stretch, and with it we’ve found a little bit more luck with regards to wins and losses. Hopefully that can continue as players are in crunch time with fantasy league playoffs. Onto this week’s recs…

Here are the totals through week 21 (with updates from previous listing):

35-48 record (4-1)
4.67 ERA (-0.07)
7.0 K/9 (same)
2.3 K/BB (same)
1.41 WHIP (same)

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers usually pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandapPete21 (but not this week) whom you should give a follow:

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez – 36.3% ESPN – v. TBR (99), v. BAL (97)

Rodriguez has quietly strung together five really nice starts since the Marlins cleaned his clock five weeks ago (eight earned in five innings). That stretch has brought his season ERA down from 4.83 to 3.94, and looked a little like this: 1.72 ERA, .666 OPS against and 26-7 K/BB ratio in five starts (31.1 innings). He’s strangely been hit harder by lefties (.380 wOBA) than righties (.285) this season, so I do have a little concern about he’ll fare against Chris Davis. But given this week’s paucity of good recs and Rodriguez’ most recent success, I still think he has a good chance to be an asset. Read the rest of this entry »

Of note this week is that five of the six starts are slated to come for pitchers at home, and considering the typical home/road boost — 3.73/4.18 splits for MLB starters this year — that should bode well for these selections as we come down the home stretch.

Here are the totals halfway through week 20 (with updates from previous listing):

31-47 record (1-0)
4.74 ERA (sadly, no change)
7.0 K/9 (same)
2.3 K/BB (same)
1.41 WHIP (-0.01)

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers usually pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandapPete21 (but not this week) whom you should give a follow:

RHP Matt Shoemaker – 23.3% ESPN – v. LAD (107), v. HOU (100)

Shoemaker absolutely has the toughest matchups of the three this week — he’s facing two of baseball’s eight offenses at or above 100 team wRC+ — but he’s also the best bet to put a good foot forward. He hasn’t been able to replicate last year’s insane success, but in two starts after his temporary banishment to the minors, he’s allowed just one earned run (0.63 ERA) with a .371 OPS against and 10-3 K/BB ratio. We’re talking about impossibly small sample sizes here and I get that, but I believe he’s trending in the right direction. Those trends are a bit more evident in the longer term as well; his last 100 innings or so since his ERA peaked at 6.61 have been quite good: 3.59 ERA, .686 OPS against and 84-26 K/BB ratio in 18 appearances (17 starts). If he’s available, I’d take a shot. The Dodgers are still pretty good on the road (101 wRC+) but the Astros are considerably worse (middle of the road at 91). Read the rest of this entry »

Better late than never, right? *checks stats* OK, maybe not. But I think these are three pitchers with pretty good matchups this week that can help you if you’re looking for late two-start help.

Here are the totals halfway through week 19 (with updates from previous listing):

30-47 record (1-1)
4.74 ERA (-0.03)
7.0 K/9 (+0.03)
2.3 K/BB (+0.1)
1.42 WHIP (no change)

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers usually pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandapPete21 (but not this week) whom you should give a follow:

RHP Scott Feldman – 7.9% ESPN – v. SEA (99), v. MIN (91)

Feldman gets a pair of below average offenses this week, and as an added bonus gets them both on the road. The Twins have a 79 wRC+ as a team on the road — an MLB worst — and the Mariners are markedly better but still just a 94. Feldman is also on a pretty nice roll, allowing three or fewer earned runs in his last six starts, resulting in a 1.80 ERA, .588 OPS against and 20-6 K/BB ratio. He won’t do much for you strikeouts-wise, but I like his chances to grab a couple wins.

LHP Brett Anderson – 20.7% ESPN – v. SFG (108), @SDP (89)

MLB’s surprise leader in groundball rate, Anderson has sort of flown under the radar while rejuvenating his career on arguably the NL’s grandest stage. That’s kind of amazing. At 27, Anderson appears headed for possible career highs in innings and starts. He’s got 25 starts and 147.1 innings, both of which could threaten his 2009 marks of 30 and 175.1. Nevertheless, it’s amazing that a guy who hasn’t done it in that long — back when he was 21 — still had it in him to get close to it. The Giants matchup isn’t ideal as they’re one of baseball’s best offenses, but getting them at Chavez Ravine is a nice bonus. The Giants are still one of baseball’s best road offenses, but it’s a bit more muted with a 104 wRC+. It’ll also be interesting to see how much Anderson’s groundball tendencies can neutralize the Giants’ power, as you’d expect it to do just that, but home runs have actually been an issue for the left-hander this season (0.9 HR/9, 15.9% HR/FB).

RHP Joe Ross – 39.4% ESPN- @STL (96), v. ATL (86)

I almost hesitated recommending Ross because my brain is automatically programmed to think the Cardinals have a stellar offense, but in fact their team wRC+ is below average, and it doesn’t hurt opposing pitchers that they have entire outfield of injured players — Randal Grichuk, Matt Holliday and Jon Jay — along with Matt Adams. The Cardinals are a little better at home (101 wRC+), but the matchup to stay for this week is the Braves anyway. Only four Braves with appreciable plate appearances have a wRC+ over 100, and that includes Freddie Freeman who has really struggled since returning from the DL in late July (.205/.293/.356 in 82 PA). Ross struggled last time out when we recommended him in this space, but those were basically his only two rough starts of the season. He’s got a 3.24 ERA, nearly a strikeout per inning and exactly a 50% groundball rate. You won’t be able to stream him for long — if at all. If he’s owned in your league — and there’s a good chance he is — consider one of the guys below.

Also considered: Tyler Duffey, Jake Peavy and Felix Doubront.

Alright, we’ve seen generally positive marks from last week’s bunch so far — 1-1, 2.70 ERA, 7.7 K/9 — so hopefully that can be the semblance of consistency needed to get this thing turned back around. Onto this week’s picks…

Here are the totals halfway through week 18 (with updates from previous listing):

29-46 record (3-2)
4.77 ERA (-0.10)
6.7 K/9 (no change)
2.2 K/BB (no change)
1.42 WHIP (-0.04)

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandapPete21, whom you should give a follow:

RHP Nate Karns – 32.7% ESPN/34% Y! – v. MIN (92), v. KC (100)

I specifically love Karns against the Twins at the Trop, because the Twins an MLB-worst 76 wRC+ on the road. The Royals, on the other hand, are pretty solid at 93 — especially since just four teams have wRC+ figures over 100 on the road. In other words, the Royals rank 10th in that respect. My sense is that Karns is on the fringes of being something special. He’s just under a strikeout per inning and with a tweak here or two could bump his groundball rate above league average as well. For now though, he walks too many batters and has a few too many blowups to be a full-time rosterable guy in shallower leagues. Something worth watching is that he’s a considerably worse at home (4.04 ERA, 4.34 FIP) than he is on the road (2.82, 3.63). I don’t think it means a whole lot yet, but it could be reason enough for you to look elsewhere. I still like him better than most.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi – 44.16% ESPN/38% Y! – v. HOU (100), @ATL (85)

With the juggling of C.C. Sabathia last week in the Yankees rotation, Eovaldi was pushed back and will now make two starts this week rather than last. The same deal applies as last week, and that is that I like his chances to steal a couple cheap wins over the week to come. He’s 13-2, and has been pretty good in the second half (3.66 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 1.29 WHIP).

LHP Danny Duffy – 15.6% ESPN/23% Y! – v. BAL (101), @TBR (97)

Duffy has struggled for much of the season, but he’s at least been decent in seven starts since the All Star break. He’s got a 3.48 ERA and .711 OPS against, but for some reason still just a 20-13 K/BB ratio over those 41.1 innings. It’s always puzzled me that he doesn’t strike out more batters with his excellent stuff, but at this point it’s worth wondering if this is just who he is. He might be a guy who benefits from a move to the bullpen, a la Wade Davis and Luke Hochevar before him. But nevertheless, I still like him a bit more than the guys below this week, since I don’t really envision either of these offenses blowing him up. I could eat my words with Baltimore, because Chris Davis crushes lefties.

Also considered: John Lamb, Matt Cain, Felix Doubront, Robby Ray and Adam Morgan.