#2xSP: 4.11-4.17

Hello again. We’re back for season for of breaking down two-start pitchers for the upcoming week. After two solid years, last year was a bit of a struggle:

35-48
4.66 ERA
7.1 K/9
2.2 BB/9
1.41 WHIP

I’ll completely understand if that’s turned you off from my #analysis, but I’m back again to try win over your hearts. Let’s see what we can do. As usual, I’m back trying to help guide you through the pitfalls of grabbing guys making two starts in the week to come, with the caveat of sub-50 percent ownership in ESPN leagues. If you think those guidelines are too high or low, please, please feel free to chime in on the comments section. The only way this can get better is through help from you, the reader.

Here are this week’s recommendations:

RHP Nicholas Tropeano – 0.2% ESPN – @OAK (.244), @MIN (.269)

For now I’m using collective team wOBA, but clearly that’s not real substantive at this point, and I get that. As the sample size increases it’ll hone in more on something useful, and at some point I’ll debate the merits of dividing it by handedness; for instance, if the A’s hit lefties well but righties poorly or vice versa. That may or may not have merit, and I’d like to hear your opinions on it.

I’ve had my eye on Tropeano for a number of reasons, which is a big reason I have him as my No. 6 starter in Scoresheet — which should pay off in quick fashion, it appears. In my case, he’s a good insurance policy on Matt Shoemaker; for the Halos, I felt like he’s a good policy for a rotation that stands to still get Tyler Skaggs back, but also has myriad physical issues with Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and now Andrew Heaney ailing. Tropeano is replacing the latter, and will get a couple weeks to prove his merit starting next week with a couple offenses that are sputtering out of the gates. In a very small sampling last year (37.2 innings), Tropeano fanned 38 batters, walked just 10 and backed a 3.82 ERA with a 2.60 FIP. His fastball is nothing exceptional, but in small doses the slider and changeup have looked really good. Like, over 20 percent whiff rates good. I don’t get the same warm feeling for him that I did for Garrett Richards before last season, but I still think this is a guy who can dream on in the medium term. I’m a fan.

RHP Juan Nicasio – 26.4% ESPN – @DET (.381), v. MIL (.307)

I’m sure I’ll take some heat for this because Nicasio has been a sexy, trendy pick among Rotographs contributors, but the ownership figures still suss out that he’s criminally underowned. Nicasio came out throwing darts in his season debut — 94.8 mph average heater, spiking at 98.3., and the swing and miss stuff has been there since last year. Every pitch he threw last year had a whiff rate in double digits. I’m extremely enthused about his future simply the further he gets from working in Coors Field, but the Searage factor also looms large. Serious breakout potential here. Detroit will be a real test, but at least he gets Milwaukee at home. The Brewers tend to crush at their home park.

LHP Matt Moore – 24.5% ESPN – v. CLE (.294), v. CWS (.278)

Moore’s season debut wasn’t all bad, as the lefty tangled with the Blue Jays and emerged with a no-decision after the Rays came back to win on the strength of two home runs from Steven Souza. Moore’s biggest sin was allowing a three-run home run to Josh Donaldson, which in my mind is a completely forgivable offense. Ultimately though, he ran up the pitch count a bit too much — 102 pitches in five innings — but emerged with six strikeouts, two walks and just five hits allowed. He’s still on that long and lonesome road back from a severe arm injury, but I can’t fight liking his chances of being a key cog in this Rays rotation that’ll carry them wherever they’re headed in this bonkers AL landscape. In the opener, Moore showed good velocity — 92.9 mph average, down from his heyday but his best since 2012 — and the changeup showed a little bit of what used to make it so great. Bradley Woodrum noted in Fangraphs+ that it was that pitch he’d be watching for in Moore’s return. Let’s see if he can sustain it against two offenses that are off to bad starts.