Archive for Streaming Two-Starters

We’re trying this Thursday thing one more time, but we did have a bit of a screw up with Archie Bradley starting Sunday rather than the Monday ESPN had suggested. Ultimately it comes down to you, the readers.

If you prefer we go a little earlier with the picks on Thursday with the understanding that probables can change, I don’t really mind writing these earlier, instead of on Fridays. So if you have an opinion, make sure we hear it.

Here are the results so far:

22-21 record
3.90 ERA
8.1 K/9
2.8 K/BB
1.35 WHIP
36 quality starts

We’ve got a trio of lefties this week. Here they are, with this week’s matchups and the opposing teams’ wRC+ in parentheses:

LHP Robbie Ray – 9.4% ESPN – v. PHI (70), v. SFG (104)

It’s a wild week of pick your poison for #2xSP, as each of these lefties have the common thread off facing the co-worst offenses in baseball. Coming into play Thursday, the Braves and Phillies are tied at 70 wRC+, and luckily this week we were able to find a trio of pitchers where each faces that offense once. And yet, they each have an above-average matchup on the other side. Truth be told, I was recommending these three most likely even without the ultra-strong matchups — others considered were Dan Straily, Daniel Mengden and John Gant, for what it’s worth — but I think each was solidified by a super strong matchup over the course of the week.

I was moderately big on Ray coming into this season. In the second half last year, he really started to mix grounders and strikeouts — walks crept up too, I suppose — and that’s a skill set that’ll play up anywhere. But I liked Ray as a lefty with that skillset in a place where lefties absolutely launch the ball. It hasn’t been a perfect season for Ray, but he’s at 10.4 K/9 and 44.5% as far as groundball rate. I can work with that. I’m less enthused about his results this month — a 4.45 ERA for his third month in a row with a 4.00-something ERA — but he’s got 36 grounders and 33 strikeouts in 28.1 innings in June. I like it. Read the rest of this entry »

Due to the request of a Twitter follower, we’ve fast-tracked 2xSP to Thursdays for the time being. We’ll see how it goes; adding a day into the mix can make things a bit more iffy when trying to accurately predict and project which guys actually make those first starts on Mondays and Tuesdays, but we aim to please, and thus here we are.

After going 3-for-3 in quality starts to get last week underway, the overall numbers have started to look pretty good. The strikeouts from the week before — thank you Matt Shoemaker and Danny Duffy — were also a nice boost.

Overall stats halfway through week 10:

22-17 record
3.76 ERA
8.3 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.31 WHIP
35 quality starts

And now, onto this week’s recs with team wRC+ in parentheses:

RHP Archie Bradley – 12.5% ESPN – @PHI (72), @COL (96)

I don’t honestly love any of these picks this week, but when you get into this pattern of three per week, you kinda gotta stick to it. Bradley’s been giving up home runs left and right (five in his last two starts spanning 11.1 innings), but I’m hoping he can be the predator rather than the prey in this two matchups. He’s rolled up the strikeouts so far which is encouraging (39 in 35 innings), but I’ll admit that I’m a bit terrified of how he’ll pitch in Coors Field, as the Rockies have an .892 OPS at home (but just a 104 wRC+). Hopefully his 1.8 HR/9 is just a blip on the radar screen — the 21.2% HR/FB rate seems to suggest so — and the can rely on his groundball and strikeout tendencies to grab a couple nice starts here. At the very least, I’m hopeful of a quality start against the Phillies. Read the rest of this entry »

After a rough week eight, we’re off to a pretty solid start with week nine — 3.92 ERA, 23-1 K/BB ratio, 10 K/9 and 0.92 WHIP with two quality starts in three opportunities — and hopefully we can parlay that into something solid here in week 10.

Here are the season results so far:

19-15
3.96 ERA
8.2 K/9
3.0 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
30 quality starts

Here are this week’s recommendations, with opposing team’s wRC+ in parentheses:

RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 12.8% ESPN – @TOR (95), v. ARI (98)

I really hate recommending pitchers going up against one another on Monday or Tuesday, and that’s exactly what’s happening here. Still, it is a very sparse week to choose from, and I like how Eickhoff has pitched for the most part recently. Especially last time out, as he held the Cubs to just one earned run in seven innings with eight strikeouts and just four baserunners total (two hits, two walks). That’s a hell of an offense to shut down. Four of Eickhoff’s last five starts have been quality starts, and for the most part he’s been pretty sturdy all season long (4.15 ERA in April, 3.99 in May). I’m a sucker for guys who can get grounders and strikeouts, especially if they don’t walk anyone (1.8 BB/9). Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a little late this week but here we are. It’s been a little bit of a rough go of late, but I think we can get back on track with this upcoming slate. Here’s what we’ve done so far.

19-12 record
3.72 ERA
1.33 WHIP
8.0 K/9
2.9 BB/9
27 quality starts

Here’s who we’re looking at this week (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Matt Shoemaker – 19.9% ESPN – @NYY (82), v. CLE (101)

You could look at Shoemaker’s season line and not be all that psyched about throwing him into your lineups here. He’s got a 5.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, but through it all on the positive side he’s got a 3.58 FIP and has fanned 53 batters in 52.1 innings. But after a rough month of April (9.15 ERA), he’s been markedly better in the five starts since: 3.13 ERA, .597 OPS against and 37-3 K/BB ratio. In fact, over his last three starts he’s fanned 31 batters and hasn’t walked anyone. Read the rest of this entry »

Alright we’re back here for another week of #2xSP. We’re off to a pretty good start halfway through week seven. Here’s what we’re working with:

17-10 record
3.48 ERA
7.9 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.29 WHIP
24 quality starts

And now here’s who we’re working with this week (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Junior Guerra – 18.1% ESPN – v. STL (116), @PHI (75)

Guerra’s a 31-year-old rookie who has put together a pretty nice first run through the NL with a 3.30 ERA through five starts. He’s got a 3.15 FIP, exactly a strikeout per inning and has allowed just two home runs through 30 innings thus far. Like a lot of week’s we’re sacrificing a pretty tough matchup for a really good one on the other side. Guerra’s PITCHf/x profile is plenty interesting, as he throws in the mid 90s with a slider and a split. The fastball is nothing to write home about in terms of results (.870 OPS against), but the split and curve both carry OPS marks against in the .300s. The split also has an excellent swinging-strike rate of 21 percent. So with that and a solid heater — at least velocity wise — I like him as a decent option this week. Read the rest of this entry »

Hey we’re getting this going a bit later than expected this week. Covering the Twins complicates the rest of my days when they’re in town, but I hope you can still use this information even now on Saturday.

Here’s how we’ve done so far:

14-9
3.62 ERA
8.0 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.30 WHIP
20 quality starts

I’d call those results to be proud of, but feel free to tell me in the comments if you feel differently. Anyway, here’s who I like this week (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Jimmy Nelson – 31.5% ESPN – @ATL (67), v. CIN (79)

Jackpot. Maybe Nelson’s ownership is a bit too high — we still use 50 percent as the barometer but I’m open to changing that — but he’s got a couple of mint matchups this week. For the most part Nelson has been able to keep away the blowups; seven of his nine starts have resulted in two or fewer earned runs. He’s held opponents to a .221 batting average thanks to a surprising swing-and-miss fastball (.114 BAA, 11.5% whiff rate) and the slider has been good too (.330 OPS against, 13.6% whiff). I really, really like his week ahead here. Read the rest of this entry »

The weird part of this is that the updates come with the back half of one week and the front half of the next. So these current stats recap the tail of a strong week four (5-0, 2.45 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.19 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB and six (!!!!!!) QS) and leads us into a murky week five (0-2, 5.68, 5.2, 1.53, 1.8 and just one QS). Here’s what we’re working with so far:

12-8 record
3.60 ERA
8.0 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.29 WHIP
16 quality starts

I can’t really complain. It’s a lot better than last year. Anyway, one thing I feel good about this week — even in a lean week where I didn’t really like many of the options — is that all six starts will come at home for these guys. Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 19% ESPN – v. MIA (100), v. ATL (58)

Admittedly I don’t love Eickhoff here, but the Braves offense on the road (54 wRC+) is just too juicy of a matchup to ignore. Strangely, the Marlins are actually much better on the road — 113 wRC+ — though their home park might take some of the surprise off that. Eickhoff has had his moments this year; he’s fanned seven or more batters three times in seven starts. He’s got a couple games with double-digit groundballs. He’s kept the walks in check (36-8 K/BB ratio in 40.2 innings) and he’s only really had one huge blowup. I’ll take my chances here on a guy that is obviously talented. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been asked a couple times in the last few weeks and I finally got around to figuring it out, so here we have it — the current results WITH quality starts included:

10-6 record
3.33 ERA
8.2 K/9
3.0 K/BB
1.26 WHIP
12 quality starts

This was a tougher week to find guys to recommend. A lot of the guys I liked on Tuesday starts — Adam Conley, Juan Nicasio and even maybe Colin Rea — early in my research were busted by off days later in the week. Anyway, here are this week’s recs (with opponents’ team wRC+ in parentheses), so hit me with your questions and qualms in the comments below:

RHP Jose Berrios – 38.8% ESPN – v. BAL (112), @CLE (100)

I realize we’re still in the midst of the Berrios hype train, so if he’s not available in your league — and given the comments I read on Twitter from fantasy owners, I think he still could be — my next pick was going to be Dan Straily, who gets the Pirates at home and the Phillies on the road for the Reds next week.

The stuff has been good for Berrios — 13 strikeouts in 9.1 innings — but the command has been spotty. It was probably somehow more true in his first start where he walked two batters than it was when he walked five Astros last time out, as his since-demoted catcher John Ryan Murphy was actually ejected in the middle of a plate appearance for arguing how badly the strike zone was being called that night. Opposing starter Dallas Keuchel seemed to agree. Anyway, Berrios showed he had a sense of humor on the next pitch, as he threw an identical curveball for a called third strike with new catcher Kurt Suzuki back there.

This’ll be a big week for the young righty, as both of these offenses are solid. If it was the O’s in Camden Yards I might have skipped him altogether, but at home I think he’s got a fighting chance to get a win/quality start. Read the rest of this entry »

UPDATE: Ricky Nolasco is starting Sunday and is no longer eligible. We’re rolling with Chris Tillman (v. NYY, v. OAK) instead.

The torrid pace with which we’ve started the season has tempered. Like a step dad, I’m not exactly mad about the early-season results, just disappointed. Here’s where we are through half of Week 3:

6-6 record
4.00 ERA
87.2 total innings
8.3 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.36 WHIP

Here’s the link to the spreadsheet if you’d like to check it out.

On to this week’s recs (with opponents’ team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Ricky Nolasco – 9.7% ESPN – @HOU (108), @CWS (90)

It feels about as clunky as the George W. Bush “fool me once” quote, but Nolasco feels like a decent enough recommendation based on his solid start. Through four starts he’s got plenty of whiffs (7.8 K/9) especially compared to walks (1.0 BB/9), is inducing grounders at a rate he’s never come close to (48.7%), and in part is riding the wave of a flukishly-low BABIP to a four-game solid stretch to start the season. Still, I’m enthused by how he’s attacking the strike zone; his first-pitch strike rate of 59.4% is his highest as a Twin, and his 51.3% zone rate is the highest he’s had since 2008. He’s healthy and he’s finding the strike zone with so-so stuff, propped up by a pretty good slider. He’s not a mixed-league year-long difference maker, but if that’s what you’re looking for you’re in the wrong place. I think he’ll give you enough in the short term here; I also think that’s what the Twins are hoping for between now and say a certain date in late July…. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve had a pretty good start to the season. Here’s a look at the numbers through a week and a half:

4-3 record
3.02 ERA
9.2 K/9
3.2 K/BB
1.23 WHIP

And perhaps to illustrate just how tough chasing wins can be in this strategy, we went 3-1 in week 1 with a 9.3 K/9 mark, 2.8 BB/9 and 3.00 ERA. Through half of this last week, we went 1-2 with a 3.05 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.

Anyway, onto this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parenthesis):

RHP Rick Porcello – 21.3 percent ESPN – @ATL (62), v. NYY (102)

This is blatantly ripped off from a tweet I read from Marc Normandin of SB Nation, but since returning from the disabled list last August, Porcello has thrown 76 innings with 9.5 K/9 and a K/BB rate of nearly 6.0. Mix in a healthy groundball rate — though that has taken a dive in the last few years — and I think you might have something here. The Braves matchup is a slam dunk, and the Yankees may be tough — I’m especially looking at Porcello’s home run rate — but he’s too good lately to not give a shot here. Read the rest of this entry »