#2xSP: 4.18-4.24

We’re only halfway through the first week results-wise — the structuring of this mandates that we’re always playing a little bit of catch up — but the early returns on Week 1 have been positive. Juan Nicasio got dusted up a bit, but Matt Moore and Nick Tropeano put forth strong efforts, and hopefully that’ll continue.

Here’s a snapshot of our Week 1 efforts to-date. If you’d like to look at the spreadsheet, maybe I’ll post it. And if you don’t care, that’s fine too:

1-1 record
3.00 ERA
9.0 K/9
1.9 K/BB
1.67 WHIP

I don’t know about you all — could write a book with that caveat — but at least fantasy-wise I think of WHIP as a pitcher’s blood pressure. So in this case, this pitcher is like a guy with all the muscles and looks, but a ticker that’s about ready to explode. Clearly I’m not worried after just three starts, but the boys did play with fire a little bit this week. Especially Nicasio but even Tropeano, who had eight baserunners in just five innings. The matchup this weekend against the Twins should be a bit easier.

Here are this week’s recommendations (with team wRC+ in parenthesis):

LHP J.A. Happ – 10.8 percent ESPN – @BOS (124), v. OAK (71)

It was my mistake last week in using team wOBA; I had forgotten we’d switched to the more fair wRC+ at some point in last year’s stream, so I’ll use that moving forward. With Happ my intrigue is double-barrelled; I want to see just what he can do post-Searage, but also I want to hone in on guys with lower ownership than usual. I hemmed and hawed about going with either Phil Hughes or Ervin Santana, but both are owned over 20 percent and Hughes against Bryce Harper may not be an ideal matchup. For what it’s worth, I’m very enthused by his velocity — he’s reached 93-94 on multiple occasions this season — and his command. I just prefer Happ here. It’s the classic give and get with one really tough option and one that should be much easier, but I’ll take my chances with Happ, who was nails down the stretch for the Pirates last year. One thing I’ll be watching is his curve usage; early on, he’s gone back to it after scorning it with the Pirates.

RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 10.5 percent ESPN – v. NYM (55), @MIL (75)

There are a couple of angles I’m looking to floss here. First of all it’s a pair of scuffling, downright brutal offenses. Hopefully that can continue for this week. But that’s not to say we’re throwing just anyone out there, either. Eickhoff’s first couple starts have been solid — 12 strikeouts in 12 innings, 1.50 ERA — and he’s inducing more grounders than before with very few walks and no home runs. Of course in a two-start sample it doesn’t take much to overturn those trends, but in his PITCHf/x profile he’s also got four pitches with double-digit whiff rates very, very early in the season. He’s gone fastball-curve heavy, for what it’s worth. He hasn’t thrown the slider much, but it has been effective thus far, so I’ll definitely be monitoring the evolution of that going forward. Ultimately, I think I’m more confident in the matchups than the stuff, but he’s on my radar as a sneaky early-season grab candidate.

LHP Adam Conley – 8.8 percent ESPN – v. WAS (89), @SFG (123)

Conley is another guy I swear I hear more fantasy types buzz about as the days go by. The slider is impressive, and you can see a few GIFs of him pitching against the Mets from Jeff Sullivan just by clicking his name above. Ultimately, I just preferred him to someone like Hector Santiago, Tanner Roark or even Shane Greene this week due to the buzz from people I trust. Like Eickhoff, everything he’s throwing is getting whiffs. All three of his pitches are above 10 percent, with the slider at 20 percent and the change up above 15 percent. It’s all small sample noise, but this is a much sneakier way to play the 2xSP game than guys like Erv. What do you prefer?