Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• In standard head-to-head Ottoneu leagues, next week is the championship matchup. Double- and triple-check your probable pitchers and make a plan for the week ahead so you know your backup plans in case something goes sideways.
• It’s a really unfortunate week to roster any Phillies starters; they head to Atlanta for three games and then return home to face the still dangerous Mets for four. Zack Wheeler has a double-game week which would normally be a boon, but it’s going to force fantasy players into some tough decisions during the biggest week of their season.
• The Cubs get a pair of easy matchups next week, hosting the Pirates and Rockies for three games each. That makes nearly their entire rotation an easy pick to start with Jameson Taillon the only one I’d have any reservations about.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Max Fried
• Freddy Peralta
• Jordan Montgomery
• Justin Verlander
• Ryan Pepiot
• Lance Lynn
• Javier Assad

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Braves have a double-header scheduled for Monday which could jumble up their rotation if they decide to call up a spot starter for one of those games. Kyle Wright is also on the mend and could be activated from the IL next week. Keep an eye on the listed probables because the Phillies and Marlins present matchups on opposite ends of the spectrum.
• It looks like the Blue Jays are the only team to have a couple of tough matchups next week when they host the Rangers and Red Sox. Every other team has a mix of matchups that don’t present any easy decisions.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Framber Valdez
• Brandon Woodruff
• Freddy Peralta
• Tyler Glasnow
• Sonny Gray
• Joe Ryan
• José Quintana
• Logan Gilbert
• Max Scherzer
• Dylan Cease

I went back and checked and it’s been more than two months since I’ve written up some under-rostered starters. This column is finally back with a few suggestions for the stretch run. Most Ottoneu head-to-head leagues began their playoffs this week and teams in points leagues will soon need to start really thinking about managing their innings cap. Here are a few starters who have been performing particularly well over the last few weeks who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues and a look at their remaining schedules.

With Shohei Ohtani unable to pitch for the rest of the season, Griffin Canning is getting another shot to prove he can handle a starter’s workload. He had been working in a piggyback role with Chase Silseth but his last two appearances have been traditional starts. He’s excelled by allowing just three runs in 13 innings, striking out 16. The biggest difference I can discern in those two starts was a greater reliance on his hard changeup. It’s not his best pitch — that would be his slider — but it does help him keep left-handed batters at bay. He’s also got a pretty soft schedule to finish the season too with starts against the Guardians, Tigers, and A’s potentially on the docket.

Dean Kremer has been a frequent recommendation in this column this year and his up-and-down performance has likely kept his roster rate pretty low. He’s actually been on a pretty good run since the All-Star break with just a single start where he’s allowed more than three runs. His strikeout-minus-walk rate has been a fairly mediocre 11.3% during this stretch but he’s managed to keep the ball in the yard which had been his Achilles Heel previously. He has starts lined up against the Angels (today), Cardinals, Astros, Guardians, and potentially the Red Sox depending on how the Orioles shift their rotation with John Means’ impending return. I’d feel comfortable starting him in four of those five games.

Brandon Williamson has seemingly settled into the big leagues after a rough-ish start to his major league career. He’s posted a solid 3.93 FIP in the second half with a good 16.7% strikeout-minus-walk rate; over his last six starts, he’s racked up 39 strikeouts against just six walks. A slight uptick in fastball velocity and a greater reliance on his changeup are likely the drivers behind this recent stretch of good outings. Unfortunately, he was placed on the COVID-19 IL last weekend and his outlook for the rest of the season is a bit up in the air. If he returns quickly, he could potentially start against the Cardinals, Mets, and Pirates to end the season but that’s obviously very tentative at this point.

Paul Blackburn has been the A’s best starter this year (which isn’t actually saying much) and he’s taken a pretty big step forward as far as his underlying metrics go. A new slider has helped him push his strikeout rate up to a career-high. Combined with his very favorable home park, he’s got some sneaky upside on a team that no one is paying attention to. I’d avoid his next two starts against the Rangers and Astros, but he’s got the Mariners (at home), Tigers, and Angels lined up to finish out the season.

Of the five pitchers listed above, I think I’m most interested in adding Javier Assad for this stretch run. He pitched out of the Cubs bullpen for nearly the entire season before getting shifted to the rotation in August. He’s thrived in longer outings and has been one of the key contributors to Chicago’s summer ascent. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts since making the transition out of the ‘pen; his last two starts have been particularly impressive, allowing just a single run in 15 innings with 14 strikeouts and just 3 walks. He has scheduled starts against the Diamondbacks, the Rockies twice (avoid him in Coors Field), the Pirates, and the Brewers to finish out the season.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Ottoneu playoffs begin for most head-to-head leagues next week.
• The Blue Jays and White Sox both have a pair of easier matchups next week. That’s great news for Toronto’s starters who have had a bunch of tougher matchups in the recent weeks. Dylan Cease is really the only starter who really benefits from Chicago’s scheduled series against the Royals and Tigers; the rest of their rotation is pretty flawed and would be risky starts no matter who the opponent is.
• The Orioles and Padres both have tough matchups next week. Baltimore is on the road to face the Angels and Red Sox — both teams are extremely difficult to face in their home stadiums — while San Diego faces the red hot Phillies and Astros. Be weary of the Marlins schedule too; they host the Dodgers before traveling to Philadelphia next weekend.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Gerrit Cole
• Corbin Burnes
• Clayton Kershaw
• Logan Webb
• Pablo López
• Justin Steele
• Zach Eflin
• José Berríos
• Cole Ragans
• Merrill Kelly

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Just a few notes because I’m on vacation:

• The Rays get an easy homestand next week with the Rockies and Yankees in town. You could argue that the Astros have two easy matchups too with the Red Sox at home (Boston has been atrocious on the road) and then the Tigers on the road.
• After playing in Houston, the Red Sox return home to play the red hot Dodgers, giving them two tough matchups next week. The Giants also have a pair of challenging opponents next week in the Phillies and Braves.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Luis Castillo
• Clayton Kershaw
• Blake Snell
• Zack Wheeler
• Jordan Montgomery
• Bryce Elder
• Paul Blackburn

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• There are a number of teams who have a five-game schedule next week, including the Blue Jays, Cubs, Phillies, Reds, Twins, and White Sox. Those teams might use the two off days to skip a start or reorder their rotations so keep an eye on the scheduled starters next weekend. Pay attention to Philadelphia and Toronto in particular since both of those teams are currently using a six-man rotation, meaning one of their regular starters won’t have a start next week.
• The Twins look like the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week when they take on the Tigers and Pirates at home. The Brewers have the unenviable task of traveling to Los Angeles and Texas to face two of the toughest offenses in baseball. The Angels also have a rough schedule next week, continuing their grueling stretch of opponents with the Rangers and Rays. I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone on the Blue Jays or White Sox either.
• Even though the Rockies have two series at home next week, their matchup ratings look artificially mediocre rather than poor like you’d expect. That’s largely due to them playing on the road recently, bringing their last 14 day wOBA down. Even though the matchup rating for the Diamondbacks and White Sox looks okay, I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone at Coors Field anyway.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Max Fried
• Logan Gilbert
• Yu Darvish
• Max Scherzer
• Bobby Miller
• Miles Mikolas

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves are entering a particularly tough stretch of their schedule this weekend; they’re about to play 14 games in 13 days without an off day due to a doubleheader against the Mets next weekend. They’re getting Max Fried back from the IL today but they’ll likely need to call up a spot starter next weekend. Luckily both of their matchups next week look pretty easy on paper.
• The Mets have the benefit of an off day before that extra long weekend series against the Braves but both of their matchups look particularly tough next week. They’re also needing to restock their rotation after the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline.
• The Yankees and Rangers both have some pretty easy matchups next week, though they’ll all come on the road. New York travels to Chicago and Miami while Texas will play in both of the expansive ballparks in the Bay Area. The Red Sox host the Royals and the Tigers next week which both look like easier matchups too, though Kansas City has been playing particularly well recently.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Gerrit Cole
• Spencer Strider
• Pablo López
• Dylan Cease
• Julio Urías
• Zach Eflin
• Freddy Peralta
• Sonny Gray
• Dane Dunning
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Braxton Garrett
• Kutter Crawford

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The trade deadline is on Tuesday next week which means some of these rotations might look very different by Wednesday. Keep an eye on the probable matchups early in the week while players get moved around; the recommendations I made above assume that everyone sticks with their original team which obviously won’t happen. When in doubt, use the matchup rating for the series to determine whether or not to start a pitcher on his new team if they’re traded midweek. The rotations for each team should be settled by the weekend which means next week’s recommendations should be a bit more straightforward.
• The impending returns of Hyun Jin Ryu, Max Fried, Nestor Cortes, and José Urquidy will also shake up the rotations on their respective teams. Generally, I recommend waiting a start or two before inserting a starter back into your lineup after he returns from a major injury like these four are.
• As far as the actual schedules go, it looks like the Rangers and Mets both get a pair of easier matchups next week. Texas plays at home against two weaker offenses while the Mets travel to two pitcher friendly ballparks.
• The Braves, Padres, and Reds get a tough slate of opponents next week. Cincinnati and Atlanta both travel to Chicago to face the red hot Cubs and they’ve got tough home matchups in their other series next week too. San Diego travels to Colorado to start next week and then returns home to face the Dodgers over the weekend.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Zac Gallen
• Framber Valdez
• Pablo López
• George Kirby
• Corbin Burnes
• Freddy Peralta
• Alex Cobb
• Jon Gray
• Johan Oviedo
• Brayan Bello
• Taijuan Walker
• Ranger Suárez
• Marcus Stroman
• José Quintana

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• There are a bunch of teams who have two off days next week and will only play five games as a result: the A’s, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees. Since they won’t necessarily need a fifth starter, keep an eye on the probable pitchers listed on Sunday in case any of those teams decide to go with a four-man rotation and skip someone’s regular turn in the rotation.
• The Tigers and Giants would have played only five games next week but they had a rainout rescheduled for Monday. That means San Francisco will play in Washington this weekend, in Detroit on Monday, and then fly home to start a series against the A’s on Tuesday.
• The Twins easy schedule post-All-Star break continues next week with a pair of matchups against the Mariners (again) and the Royals. Every one of their starters have been pretty close to a must start all season long and you can just set them and forget them next week too.
• The Blue Jays and White Sox get a pretty tough slate of games next week. Toronto gets the double Los Angeles experience with one series on the road (at the Dodgers) and one at home (versus the Angels). The Cubs and Guardians may not seem like tough opponents on paper, but both teams have been hitting particularly well recently and both series will be played in the home run friendly confines of Guaranteed Rate Field.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Justin Verlander
• Luis Castillo
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Nathan Eovaldi
• Kenta Maeda
• Aaron Civale