Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 20–26

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

May 20–26
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @LAD (21) MIA (172) Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery Slade Cecconi (vMIA) Slade Cecconi (@LAD), Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson
ATL @CHC (62) @PIT (152) Max Fried, Reynaldo López, Chris Sale (@PIT), Charlie Morton (@PIT) Chris Sale (vSDP), Charlie Morton (@CHC) Bryce Elder
BAL @STL (147) @CHW (133) Kyle Bradish (x2), Grayson Rodriguez (?), Corbin Burnes Cole Irvin, John Means, Dean Kremer
BOS @TBR (99) MIL (46) Tanner Houck (@TBR) Garrett Whitlock (?), Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck (vMIL)
CHC ATL (97) @STL (147) Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad (@STL) Javier Assad (vATL), Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon Kyle Hendricks
CHW @TOR (94) BAL (44) Erick Fedde 페디 (@TOR), Garrett Crochet (@TOR) Mike Clevinger, Erick Fedde (vBAL), Garrett Crochet (vBAL) Brad Keller, Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN SDP (23) LAD (21) Andrew Abbott (x2), Nick Martinez, Frankie Montas, Hunter Greene Graham Ashcraft
CLE NYM (80) @LAA (55) Ben Lively 라이블리 (x2), Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen
COL @OAK (101) PHI (9) Ryan Feltner Austin Gomber Cal Quantrill (x2), Ty Blach, Dakota Hudson
DET @KCR (120) TOR (156) Reese Olson (x2), Casey Mize (x2), Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty Kenta Maeda (?)
HOU LAA (80) @OAK (101) Framber Valdez (x2) Cristian Javier, Justin Verlander Hunter Brown, José Urquidy (?)
KCR DET (172) @TBR (99) Michael Wacha (x2), Alec Marsh, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer
LAA @HOU (51) CLE (99) Patrick Sandoval Reid Detmers (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson Griffin Canning
LAD ARI (71) @CIN (110) Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Gavin Stone James Paxton, Walker Buehler
MIA MIL (78) @ARI (106) Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett Ryan Weathers (x2), Trevor Rogers, Sixto Sánchez
MIL @MIA (175) @BOS (140) Robert Gasser, Freddy Peralta Joe Ross (x2), Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea
MIN @WSN (122) TEX (101) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Wood Richardson, Chris Paddack
NYM @CLE (115) SFG (110) Christian Scott, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea Tylor Megill (?), Jose Quintana
NYY SEA (67) @SDP (97) Nestor Cortes Clarke Schmidt (x2), Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman (x2)
OAK COL (149) HOU (120) Aaron Brooks 브룩스 (x2), Joey Estes, Kyle Muller, Ross Stripling, JP Sears
PHI TEX (69) @COL (53) Zack Wheeler Ranger Suárez (x2) Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola Cristopher Sánchez
PIT SFG (117) ATL (106) Jared Jones, Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Martín Pérez (x2), Bailey Falter
SDP @CIN (110) NYY (39) Yu Darvish Dylan Cease (x2), Michael King (x2) Matt Waldron, Joe Musgrove
SEA @NYY (37) @WSN (122) Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert (@WSN), Bryan Woo (@WSN) Logan Gilbert (@NYY), Bryan Woo (@NYY), Bryce Miller
SFG @PIT (152) @NYM (159) Logan Webb (x2), Jordan Hicks Kyle Harrison, Blake Snell (?), Keaton Winn
STL BAL (94) CHC (108) Sonny Gray (x2) Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore
TBR BOS (138) KCR (159) Taj Bradley (x2), Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Ryan Pepiot (?), Aaron Civale
TEX @PHI (25) @MIN (122) Jon Gray (@MIN) Jon Gray (@PHI) Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen José Ureña
TOR CHW (145) @DET (170) José Berríos (x2), Yusei Kikuchi (x2), Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt Alek Manoah
WSN MIN (74) SEA (60) Mitchell Parker (x2), MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams Patrick Corbin

A few general schedule notes:

  • After playing the Dodgers in Los Angeles this weekend, the Reds return home for a tough homestand against the Padres and the Dodgers (again). That makes for a pretty tough slate of matchups for their starters. Philadelphia also has a tougher schedule next week with three against the Rangers and then a weekend series in Colorado. Thanks to his elite groundball rate, Ranger Suárez might be the only pitcher who you’d want to start in Coors Field, though you’d have to be pretty desperate for the innings to take that risk.
  • There are a bunch of teams who have a pair of easier matchups lined up for next week: the Blue Jays, Brewers, Giants, Orioles, and Rays. For the most part, you’ll want to start any of the pitchers you own from those teams, though I’d be a little weary of the weekend series the Brewers have in Boston. The Red Sox offense has been scuffling a bit recently, but they’re much more potent at home.
  • Pitchers possibly coming off the Injured List sometime next week include Kenta Maeda, Tylor Megill, Ryan Pepiot, Grayson Rodriguez, Blake Snell, José Urquidy, and Garrett Whitlock. In general, I recommend waiting a start or two before inserting an injured starter back into your lineup, but Rodriguez’s projected start against the White Sox might be too good to pass up.

Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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27 days ago

Who sits in a points League scenario?
Wheeler, Skrubal, Yamato, Imanga, Singer 2x, Skenes and Ober? An embarrassment of riches?

27 days ago
Reply to  yochuckie

Sorry, need the best five.