Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 13–19

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

May 13–19
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI CIN (179) DET (130) Jordan Montgomery (x2), Brandon Pfaadt, Zac Gallen Slade Cecconi, Ryne Nelson
ATL CHC (136) SDP (65) Reynaldo López (x2), Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Max Fried Bryce Elder
BAL TOR (143) SEA (107) Corbin Burnes (x2), Kyle Bradish Cole Irvin, John Means, Dean Kremer
BOS TBR (92) @STL (163) Kutter Crawford (x2), Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta (@STL) Nick Pivetta (vTBR), Cooper Criswell, Brayan Bello
CHC @ATL (103) PIT (141) Javier Assad, Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga (vPIT) Shota Imanaga (@ATL), Jameson Taillon Hayden Wesneski
CHW WSN (67) @NYY (33) Erick Fedde 페디 Chris Flexen 플렉센 (x2), Garrett Crochet, Mike Clevinger, Michael Soroka
CIN @ARI (125) @LAD (9) Hunter Greene (@ARI) Graham Ashcraft (@ARI), Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft (@LAD), Hunter Greene (@LAD)
CLE @TEX (54) MIN (49) Tanner Bibee (x2) Ben Lively 라이블리, Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen
COL @SDP (103) @SFG (167) Ryan Feltner Peter Lambert (x2) Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber, Dakota Hudson
DET MIA (159) @ARI (125) Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty Casey Mize Kenta Maeda (x2)
HOU OAK (78) MIL (49) Framber Valdez Ronel Blanco (x2), Cristian Javier, Justin Verlander Hunter Brown (x2)
KCR @SEA (130) OAK (116) Brady Singer (x2), Michael Wacha, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Alec Marsh
LAA STL (121) @TEX (54) Reid Detmers José Soriano (vSTL) Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano (@TEX)
LAD @SFG (167) CIN (134) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (x2), Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler Gavin Stone (x2), James Paxton
MIA @DET (132) NYM (107) Ryan Weathers, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett Sixto Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo (?)
MIL PIT (121) @HOU (45) Freddy Peralta Colin Rea (vPIT), Joe Ross Tobias Myers, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea (@HOU)
MIN NYY (51) @CLE (96) Bailey Ober Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Simeon Woods Richardson Chris Paddack (x2)
NYM PHI (56) @MIA (156) Luis Severino, Sean Manaea (@MIA) Sean Manaea (vPHI), Christian Scott José Buttó, Jose Quintana
NYY @MIN (76) CHW (129) Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón (vCHW) Carlos Rodón (@MIN), Marcus Stroman Clarke Schmidt
OAK @HOU (45) @KCR (107) Paul Blackburn JP Sears (@HOU), Alex Wood, Ross Stripling Osvaldo Bido (?)
PHI @NYM (141) WSN (74) Aaron Nola (x2), Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Taijuan Walker
PIT @MIL (49) @CHC (91) Jared Jones Mitch Keller (x2), Paul Skenes Martín Pérez, Bailey Falter Quinn Priester
SDP COL (150) @ATL (103) Dylan Cease Michael King, Joe Musgrove Randy Vásquez (vCOL) Matt Waldron, Randy Vásquez (@ATL)
SEA KCR (118) @BAL (100) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo
SFG LAD (65) COL (176) Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks (vCOL) Jordan Hicks (vLAD), Kyle Harrison Keaton Winn, Mason Black
STL @LAA (58) BOS (80) Sonny Gray Lance Lynn Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas
TBR @BOS (74) @TOR (103) Zach Eflin (@TOR), Aaron Civale (@TOR) Zach Eflin (@BOS), Aaron Civale (@BOS), Taj Bradley, Zack Littell Tyler Alexander
TEX CLE (98) LAA (87) Jon Gray Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi (?) Michael Lorenzen (x2)
TOR @BAL (100) TBR (76) Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Chris Bassitt Alek Manoah
WSN @CHW (112) @PHI (29) Trevor Williams (@CHW), Mitchell Parker, MacKenzie Gore Patrick Corbin, Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams (@PHI)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The only schedule quirk next week is a four-game, home-and-home series between the Phillies and Mets. They’ll start off with two games in New York and then two games in Philadelphia. The matchups are poor for the Mets no matter where they’re playing since the Phillies offense has been so good recently. For the Phillies, the matchup is a lot better in the pitcher friendly confines of Citi Field.
  • Teams to avoid with a pair of tough matchups include the Guardians and White Sox. Cleveland travels to Texas to face the Rangers and then hosts the red hot Twins. You’re probably not rostering any Chicago starters except for Erick Fedde and he’s the only recommendation I have from their rotation in a revenge game against his former team, the Nationals.
  • The Diamondbacks and Dodgers both have a pair of easier matchups on the docket next week. Arizona hosts the Reds and the Tigers, both of whom have struggling offenses. Los Angeles travels to San Francisco and then hosts the Reds.

Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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A Salty Scientist
17 days ago

Hmmm, I feel like Crochet is nearing must start, especially in QS vs W leagues.