Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 27–June 2

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

May 27–June 2
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @TEX (113) @NYM (146) Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson (x2), Tommy Henry
ATL WSN (155) OAK (157) Charlie Morton (x2), Max Fried (x2), Reynaldo López, Chris Sale Darius Vines
BAL BOS (86) TBR (142) Grayson Rodriguez, Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin (vTBR) Cole Irvin (vBOS)
BOS @BAL (108) DET (102) Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck Nick Pivetta, Cooper Criswell (vDET), Brayan Bello (vDET) Cooper Criswell (@BAL), Brayan Bello (@BAL)
CHC @MIN (144) CIN (137) Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad Justin Steele (x2), Ben Brown (x2), Jameson Taillon
CHW TOR (95) @MIL (31) Garrett Crochet Erick Fedde 페디 Nick Nastrini (x2), Mike Clevinger, Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN STL (51) @CHC (124) Hunter Greene Andrew Abbott Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft
CLE @COL (24) WSN (144) Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Xzavion Curry (vWSN) Xzavion Curry (@COL), Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen
COL CLE (69) @LAD (75) Ryan Feltner Austin Gomber (x2), Ty Blach, Dakota Hudson, Cal Quantrill
DET PIT (126) @BOS (97) Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Casey Mize (x2) Kenta Maeda
HOU @SEA (106) MIN (93) Framber Valdez (x2) Cristian Javier (x2), Justin Verlander, Ronel Blanco Hunter Brown José Urquidy (?)
KCR @MIN (144) SDP (102) Alec Marsh (@MIN), Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo, Brady Singer Michael Wacha, Alec Marsh (vSDP)
LAA NYY (11) @SEA (106) Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano, Reid Detmers Tyler Anderson Griffin Canning (x2)
LAD @NYM (146) COL (62) Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Gavin Stone (x2), Walker Buehler James Paxton
MIA @SDP (113) TEX (148) Jesús Luzardo Braxton Garrett Trevor Rogers (x2), Sixto Sánchez, Ryan Weathers
MIL CHC (111) CHW (133) Freddy Peralta (x2), Robert Gasser Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea Tobias Myers (x2)
MIN KCR (115) @HOU (22) Joe Ryan (vKCR), Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson (vKCR), Chris Paddack, Pablo López, Joe Ryan (@HOU) Simeon Woods Richardson (@HOU)
NYM LAD (102) ARI (86) Luis Severino, Sean Manaea Tylor Megill (x2), Christian Scott Jose Quintana (x2)
NYY @LAA (46) @SFG (108) Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes (@SFG) Nestor Cortes (@LAA), Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman
OAK @TBR (137) @ATL (75) Mitch Spence (@TBR), Joey Estes, Ross Stripling, JP Sears Aaron Brooks 브룩스
PHI @SFG (108) STL (62) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez Cristopher Sánchez Taijuan Walker (x2)
PIT @DET (148) @TOR (84) Jared Jones, Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Bailey Falter, Martín Pérez
SDP MIA (137) @KCR (77) Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease Michael King (x2), Matt Waldron, Joe Musgrove
SEA HOU (62) LAA (82) Luis Castillo (x2), George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo Bryce Miller (x2)
SFG PHI (82) NYY (66) Blake Snell (x2), Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb Kyle Harrison Mason Black
STL @CIN (102) @PHI (40) Lance Lynn (x2), Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas
TBR OAK (173) @BAL (108) Zack Littell (x2), Ryan Pepiot Taj Bradley Aaron Civale Tyler Alexander
TEX ARI (73) @MIA (148) Nathan Eovaldi (?) Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney, José Ureña, Michael Lorenzen
TOR @CHW (117) PIT (80) Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi Chris Bassitt (x2), Alek Manoah, José Berríos
WSN @ATL (75) @CLE (80) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Trevor Williams, Mitchell Parker Patrick Corbin (x2)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Braves have a nice pair of home matchups against the Nationals and A’s next week. They’re in the midst of a long stretch of games without an off day which means they might turn to a sixth starter next week to keep the workload off their starters, so make sure you’re checking the announced starters for their games.
  • The Cubs also have a couple of easier matchups against the Twins and Reds. I can’t unreservedly recommend starting every pitcher in their rotation, but even guys like Jameson Taillon or Ben Brown are good bets to turn in decent starts next week.
  • The rest of the schedule is pretty mixed and there isn’t really a team who is facing a particularly tough week. The Rockies probably come the closest as they have a series at home against the Guardians and then head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. You’re probably not rostering any Colorado starters anyway though.

Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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1 month ago

Maybe it comes down to how we’re defining “maybe”, but as an owner of both King and Musgrove (on the same team!), I struggle to see how they can even be as high as “maybe”.

Last 10 starts (including one from 2023, but just for easy numbers) averaging 11 P/GS. 3 of his 2024 starts had > 15 points.

Has certainly fared better, but his 21 P/GS in the last 10 is inflated by 2 60 point performances.

This isn’t really a challenge statement as much as maybe a clarification of how to view “maybe” vs “risky”.

1 month ago
Reply to  Jake Mailhot

Makes perfect sense, thanks for the reply!