Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 10–16

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 10–16
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI LAA (156) CHW (170) Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson Jordan Montgomery (x2), Slade Cecconi
ATL @BAL (59) TBR (117) Chris Sale, Max Fried Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton Spencer Schwellenbach (x2)
BAL ATL (130) PHI (98) Corbin Burnes (x2), Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez Albert Suárez 수아레즈 (x2), Cole Irvin
BOS PHI (80) NYY (35) Tanner Houck Kutter Crawford (x2), Nick Pivetta Cooper Criswell, Brayan Bello
CHC @TBR (137) STL (89) Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele Jordan Wicks (?)
CHW @SEA (150) @ARI (115) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Garrett Crochet Jake Woodford (x2) Nick Nastrini, Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN CLE (30) @MIL (43) Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo Nick Martinez, Andrew Abbott, Frankie Montas
CLE @CIN (41) @TOR (76) Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco
COL @MIN (117) PIT (98) Cal Quantrill Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner Dakota Hudson (x2), Ty Blach
DET WSN (163) @HOU (76) Jack Flaherty (vWSN), Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (@HOU) Kenta Maeda, Casey Mize
HOU @SFG (135) DET (100) Ronel Blanco, Framber Valdez Spencer Arrighetti (x2), Justin Verlander Hunter Brown
KCR NYY (65) @LAD (28) Seth Lugo (x2), Cole Ragans Brady Singer (x2), Alec Marsh Daniel Lynch IV
LAA @ARI (115) @SFG (135) Patrick Sandoval, José Soriano (@SFG) José Soriano (@ARI) Tyler Anderson Griffin Canning, José Suarez
LAD TEX (89) KCR (74) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller (?), Gavin Stone James Paxton
MIA @NYM (106) @WSN (117) Jesús Luzardo (x2), Braxton Garrett, Ryan Weathers Roddery Muñoz, Trevor Rogers
MIL TOR (65) CIN (41) Freddy Peralta Aaron Ashby (x2), Tobias Myers, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea
MIN COL (124) OAK (128) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Chris Paddack (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM MIA (154) SDP (78) Tylor Megill (vMIA), Luis Severino David Peterson, Sean Manaea, Tylor Megill (vSDP) Jose Quintana
NYY @KCR (78) @BOS (80) Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil Carlos Rodón (x2), Marcus Stroman (x2) Cody Poteet
OAK @SDP (117) @MIN (117) Joey Estes (x2), JP Sears (x2) Luis Medina, Mitch Spence Hogan Harris
PHI @BOS (80) @BAL (13) Zack Wheeler (x2), Aaron Nola Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT @STL (102) @COL (46) Paul Skenes (@STL) Mitch Keller Bailey Falter, Jared Jones, Paul Skenes (@COL) Luis L. Ortiz
SDP OAK (124) @NYM (106) Dylan Cease (x2) Michael King, Matt Waldron Randy Vásquez Adam Mazur
SEA CHW (148) TEX (111) Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryan Woo (x2), Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo, George Kirby
SFG HOU (163) LAA (167) Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb Kyle Harrison (x2) Keaton Winn (?) Spencer Howard
STL PIT (148) @CHC (100) Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn Kyle Gibson Miles Mikolas (x2) Andre Pallante
TBR CHC (130) @ATL (109) Ryan Pepiot (x2), Zach Eflin (x2), Taj Bradley, Zack Littell Aaron Civale
TEX @LAD (28) @SEA (150) Nathan Eovaldi (@SEA) Nathan Eovaldi (@LAD), Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray (?) Michael Lorenzen Dane Dunning
TOR @MIL (43) CLE (43) Yusei Kikuchi Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis
WSN @DET (128) MIA (130) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin Patrick Corbin (x2), DJ Herz

A few general schedule notes:

  • It’s pretty surprising to see the matchups against the Astros and the Braves highlighted in blue above (indicating that they’re an easier matchup). Both of these potent lineups are mired in pretty significant slumps — Atlanta has posted a .286 wOBA over the last 14 days and the Astros aren’t much better at .288 — and they both struggle to produce on the road. That means that the Giants and Orioles have a sneakily decent matchup against these two ball clubs you’d normally want to avoid.
  • Speaking of San Francisco, they’ve got a homestand next week against the aforementioned Astros and then the hapless Angels. The Diamondbacks also look like they have a pair of easier matchups lined up next week; they host the Angels and White Sox and could potentially welcome back Zac Gallen from the IL if his rehab goes quickly.
  • There are a bunch of teams with two tough matchups next week. The Royals probably have the most difficult pair of opponents in the Yankees and Dodgers and I’m fading every Kansas City pitcher, even Cole Ragans in LA. The Blue Jays, Brewers, and Reds each have hot hitting opponents on the docket too and you’d probably be better off avoiding having any pitchers from those teams in your lineups next week.

Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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8 days ago

Since many leagues have SP limits such that if you are OK by Sunday you can go over the max, and because Sunday probables are a little less secure, can you do something to signify Sunday matchups like you already do for the (2x) or to separate matchups?