There have been some really exciting starts from young pitchers so far this season. On Sunday, Michael Kopech pitched five innings, faced 18 batters, and struck out 10 of them. When I saw that he was starting in place of Lucas Giolito on Sunday morning, I totally rolled the dice and got lucky. Adding a young pitcher who I’ve been rooting for over the past few years and it paying off was great. But, I’ll admit, it made me feel a little empty inside.

As I stared at the tv and excitedly encouraged whiff after whiff I slowly began to realize that a win wasn’t going to be possible. I knew Kopech would be on a pitch count and I knew he wasn’t going to suddenly become a rotation mainstay, but I went for it anyway, dropping a set-up reliever in order to gain some strikeouts. I felt oh-so-sad when Tony La Russa effectively looked into the camera and told me not to get used to it. Monday morning had me reflecting, was it worth it? Which is better to roster, low-pitch count starters like Kopech or middle/set-up relievers?

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You may remember, in the before times, a game called Beat the Streak. The game challenged baseball fans to hypothetically beat one of the greatest records of all time. The idea was to pick one player each day to get a hit and to do that 57 consecutive times, beating Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hit streak record. Way back in preseason 2020 I wrote about my ambitions of becoming a millionaire by using predictive, machine learning models to aid in winning the competition. The game’s 2020 cancellation gave me time to think, time to read, time to learn how noisy my upstairs neighbors are, and time to build a better model.

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I’m going to continue my analysis of NFBC Main Event drops, but this first week will be a one-off. The NFBC ran its first FAAB bids last night but not all the leagues have drafted (I have my final one tonight), so the adds and drops not have the normal diversity and depth. Some of the information is still useful. With the limited number of teams and with the drafts so close to the season’s will dive into some of the players on the move (minimum three moves).

Note: I use the NFBC Main Event movement because it’s a decent number of identical leagues. Additionally, the owners stay engaged longer since each spent over $1700 per team.
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09/24/20

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WEEKEND STREAMERS

Friday

• Taylor Clarke v. COL
• Kyle Wright v. BOS
• Jorge Lopez at TOR
• Chris Mazza at ATL
• Dylan Cease v. CHC
• Spencer Turnbull at KC
• Jose Urquidy at TEX
• Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 v. STL
• Eric Lauer v. STL
• Rick Porcello at WAS
• J.A. Happ v. MIA
• Vince Velasquez at TB
• Mitch Keller at CLE
• Yusei Kikuchi at OAK
• Tyler Anderson v. SD
• Jeff Samardzija v. SD
• Daniel Ponce de Leon v. MIL
• Kyle Cody v. HOU
• Taijuan Walker v. BAL

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Thursday has a much smaller slate of low-owned pitchers in CBS leagues with only six choices. So let’s discuss these six in hopes of finding streaming options. As usual, I will conclude my thoughts with a STREAM or NOT recommendation.

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Let’s continue our look at potentially streaming starting pitchers owned in 30% or fewer leagues on CBS. Today we’ll look at Wednesday’s slate as indicated by CBS. Below, I’ll discuss each stream candidate and conclude with a STREAM or NOT decision.

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As we enter the final full week of the season, streaming starting pitchers to try to maximize your wins and strikeouts might either become a viable strategy for you now or has been a strategy you have been executing for some time already. So let’s review the probable starters for Tuesday’s games that are owned on 30% or fewer teams in CBS leagues and conclude with a STREAM or NOT decision, assuming a 12-team mixed league.

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I usually don’t worry about schedule specific details during a regular season since so much can change in a month or two. This season is only going to last a couple of months, so it has some importance. I dug through all of the National League teams trying to find some stretches to stream players. I didn’t find a bunch of one to two-week stretches but I did come to some overarching themes.

I tried to digest as much of the information as possible and I’m sure I’ve missed something obvious. I started the analysis hoping to find a list of week-by-week targets to stream and came away with a new perspective.
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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com, which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate). I’ve listed the players in order of interest.

Note: * denotes that ESPN ownership rates were used, as rates on FantasyPros were unavailable.

Must-Start

John Means (11-11, 3.54) at BOS |42%

Means has been a master at inducing soft contact this season, both on flies and liners (90.7 mph EV) and grounders (82.5 mph EV). Now he gets to face a Red Sox offense that ranks in the bottom third in ISO and wOBA for September. They may also still be adjusting from playing in high-80s temperatures in Texas to cool, damp weather in Boston. Means is a must-add and must-start.
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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate). I’ve listed the players in order of interest. Read the rest of this entry »