Replacement Player Analysis Using Adds & Drops by Jeff Zimmerman September 28, 2021 In most weekly leagues, the ability to add and drop players is gone for this season. Since there are no more moves, I’m going to analyze the most added and dropped players in NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship with the main goal to create a composite replacement-level player. For reference, the Online Championship (OC) leagues have 12 teams while the Main Event (ME) has 15. Both of the leagues require 23 starters each week with 7 bench spots (no IL spots). At all times, 360 players will be rostered in an Online league and 450 in a Main Event league. The reason I decided on the two NFBC formats were: The data is freely available. The information is from several leagues (43 Main Events, 199 Online Championships) with the same ruleset. The leagues remain competitive longer since there is decent money on the line. With two formats (12-team and 15-team), a comparison can be done on the different player pools. I know at times we may seem a little NFBC centric here at Rotographs. Now, if some other platform had the ability to select a league type and make available all the adds and drops, I’d use them. The NFBC is the only platform that offers this service. With the background stuff out of the way, here are the 30 players who were dropped and added the most in the two formats. Online Championship (12-teams) Combined Adds and Drops Name Adds and Drops Michael Fulmer 948 Brandon Belt 945 Austin Gomber 911 Johnny Cueto 879 Alex Cobb 875 Daulton Varsho 866 Luis Arraez 837 Miguel Rojas 832 Lucas Sims 812 Logan Webb 790 Jon Gray 765 Gregory Soto 754 Joe Ross 753 Joakim Soria 749 Rich Hill 743 Jorge Alfaro 737 Madison Bumgarner 716 Triston McKenzie 709 Drew Smyly 707 Tony Gonsolin 707 Kwang Hyun Kim κΉκ΄ν 706 Lorenzo Cain 688 Garrett Cooper 684 Alejandro Kirk 682 Cole Irvin 681 Tarik Skubal 676 Elieser Hernandez 675 Nico Hoerner 671 Harrison Bader 669 Max Stassi 667 Main Event (15-teams) Combined Adds and Drops Name Adds and Drops Michael Fulmer 273 Wilmer Flores 259 Pete Fairbanks 259 Kevin Pillar 248 Rowdy Tellez 243 Nick Ahmed 242 Rougned Odor 241 Jose Iglesias 240 Chad Green 237 Brad Keller 237 Leury Garcia 229 Erick Fedde 227 Yonathan Daza 221 Josh Fleming 220 Greg Holland 218 Michael Wacha 217 Chas McCormick 216 Adrian Houser 212 Kevin Kiermaier 210 Edward Olivares 210 Victor Caratini 208 David Price 208 Taylor Widener 207 Devin Williams 206 Ryan Weathers 201 Niko Goodrum 201 Asdrubal Cabrera 201 Joe Ross 199 Amir Garrett 199 Here are some thoughts on the two lists. Going through the players, there are four common threads with the top names matching multiple criteria, multiple times. The first is being just OK. None of these players were good enough to keep rostered if hurt (the second variable) with available comparable replacements. The third factor is being a reliever who looked to be in line for Saves The final factor is a player with a high variance in opponent or ballpark quality such as anyone on the Rockies. Michael Fulmer leads both lists. He meets two of the common criteria for being dropped, a possible closer and being hurt. And now for the meat of the article. For non-catcher hitters, starters, and relievers, I averaged the stats for the 12 (OC) and 15 (ME) most added and dropped players. These players were readily available on the waiver wire and most managers would be able to add them for little to no cost (i.e. replacement-level player). Additionally since several of these players were on the IL at various times, I standardized the playing time (600 PA for hitters, 150 IP for starters). To start with, here are the hitters. Replacement Level Hitter 15-team PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG OPS BABIP Average 362 9.2 42.5 40.5 3.7 7.9% 22.3% .243 .312 .389 .701 .292 Median 351 9.0 42.0 42.0 2.0 7.6% 22.0% .241 .313 .385 .698 .289 Average 600 15.3 70.5 67.1 6.1 7.9% 22.3% .243 .312 .389 .701 .292 Median 600 15.4 71.8 71.8 3.4 7.9% 22.3% .243 .312 .389 .701 .292 12-team PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG OPS BABIP Average 405 10.6 50.4 43.6 6.0 9.6% 19.2% .266 .344 .420 .765 .312 Median 420 9.0 54.5 44.0 6.5 9.8% 19.9% .269 .342 .405 .746 .310 Average 600 15.7 74.8 64.6 8.9 9.6% 19.2% .266 .344 .420 .765 .312 Median 600 12.9 77.9 62.9 9.3 9.6% 19.2% .266 .344 .420 .765 .312 There are a few points to take from the differences. Home run power can be found readily on the wire in both formats, but it’s a lot harder to find batting average (20 point difference) and steals (3 to 6 steal difference). Throughout the entire draft, it might be best to focus on batting average knowing it’ll be difficult to find during the season. Here are the starter stats. Replacement Level Starter 15-team IP SO W K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP GB% WHIP ERA Average 115 95 6.4 7.4 3.2 1.4 .292 45% 1.37 4.76 Median 123 109 7.0 7.6 3.2 1.5 .290 44% 1.33 4.62 Average 150 125 8.4 7.4 3.2 1.4 .292 45% 1.37 4.76 Median 150 133 8.5 7.6 3.2 1.5 .290 44% 1.33 4.62 12-team IP SO W K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP GB% WHIP ERA Average 122 116 7.4 8.8 3.1 1.2 .283 42% 1.25 4.03 Median 120 116 7.5 9.0 2.9 1.2 .286 39% 1.24 4.13 Average 150 143 9.2 8.8 3.1 1.2 .283 42% 1.25 4.03 Median 150 145 9.4 9.0 2.9 1.2 .286 39% 1.24 4.13 If just one item can be taken away from this analysis, it is in the above information. In 12-teamers, pitchers with 4.00 ERA’s and 1.25 WHIP’s can be found to stream against weaker opponents. Those ratios jump to over a 4.50 ERA and ~1.35 WHIP in 15-teamers. There was no way to stream pitchers in the Main Event. If anyone popped up, they were kept. Also, it was way easier to find strikeouts (8.8 K/9 vs 7.4 K/9) in the 12-teamers. And finally closers. I was going to adjust the closers to 60 IP, but they were already there. Replacement Level Reliever 15-team IP SO W SV K/9 BB/9 BABIP GB% WHIP ERA Average 60 68 4.9 6.2 10.3 3.3 .291 43% 1.20 3.39 Median 60 71 5.0 6.0 10.5 3.3 .296 42% 1.17 3.02 12-team IP SO W SV K/9 BB/9 BABIP GB% WHIP ERA Average 60 70 4.8 9.3 10.7 3.9 .294 41% 1.27 3.68 Median 62 73 5.0 9.0 10.8 3.3 .293 43% 1.34 3.77 The difference here is that in the 12-teamers, managers had more options for Saves and rostered them. In the 15-teams, managers focused on ratios more and just hoped the Saves would come along. When possible, it’s important to know what can and can’t be added in various league types. This analysis is especially important for “experienced” fantasy managers who may have been used to a certain player being available in the good old days (or in other leagues). While the game and the people playing it change every season, the best estimate going forward would be from the previous season.