Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: March 30–April 2

Welcome to what I hope will become a regular bi-weekly column this season. Streaming starting pitchers is a popular and effective strategy in fantasy baseball but the benefits are largely lost in a dynasty format like Ottoneu. The 48-hour in-season auctions make streaming in this format an exercise in foresight and planning while the deep rosters make finding starting pitching on the waiver wire tougher than in other, shallower formats. But finding ways to fill your innings pitched or games started cap is a real concern for many teams, especially considering the rate of attrition for pitchers in the modern era. In Ottoneu, you can’t really stream, but you can drip.

My goal for this column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

For our purposes, I’m defining under-owned as less than 50% rostered across all Ottoneu leagues. I’ll also point out favorable schedules for teams playing against weak teams or in advantageous ballparks. To start, a lot of the data underlying these recommendations will be based on preseason projections, but once the season gets going, I’ll also be looking for under-owned pitchers who are performing particularly well. As we go along, if you have any ideas for improvement or features you’d like to see in this column, feel free to reach out to me here in the comments or over on Twitter.

Upcoming Schedule:

In the table above, you’ll see every team listed alongside their opponent with team wRC+ listed and the HR park factor for the ballpark they’re playing in. Avoiding home runs is paramount in Ottoneu points leagues so focusing on pitchers who are playing in cavernous ballparks and avoiding bandboxes is paramount. These recommendations aren’t meant to overrule talent, but they do give you a bit of extra information for those borderline starts that you’re on the fence about.

Looking through the weekend schedule, it looks like the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Mets, Padres, Rays, and Twins all have favorable matchups. Go ahead and start pitchers in those matchups without hesitation. I’d be weary starting anyone from the Diamondbacks or White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

The easiest recommendations are the three Padres starters who open the season against the Rockies in San Diego. All three fall below our 50% threshold and they’re all projected to be solid contributors this year. Martinez is probably the best of the three, Wacha has the longest track record — mixed as it is — and Lugo is the wild card who may or may not thrive in his move into the rotation.

Choosing to start the two Tigers pitchers against the Rays this weekend is a bit more risky. Both Boyd and Turnbull have had significant recent injuries and are only just now returning to full health. It’s hard to know what to expect from either pitcher, though the last time they were healthy, they were both productive members of Detroit’s rotation.

Kyle Muller is potentially a sneaky start on Opening Day. He has the best projection out of all the pitchers listed above and he’s starting at home in Oakland with the cool, spring marine layer hopefully suppressing fly ball contact. The opponent isn’t ideal — the Angels can really hit when they’re at full strength — so start Muller only if you really need to.

And if you’re feeling really risky, you can pick up Jhony Brito who looks to have secured the fifth spot in the Yankees rotation after Luis Severino injured his lat prior to his final spring training start. Brito enjoyed a breakout minor league season last year fueled by an increase in fastball velocity up to around 95 mph. He pairs that heater with a power changeup that fades away from left-handed batters. His repertoire is rounded out with two average breaking balls that can play up due to consistent command of both of them. If he is inserted into the rotation, he’ll likely make his major league debut on Sunday, April 2 against the Giants.