Archive for Strategy

Just How Much Can You Change Your Batting Average Now?

Two weeks left in the season. At least a few of you are staring at the batting average category and wondering if you can do anything about it at all. You have 11/12ths of the season in the rear view weighing you down, it’s not likely. But I thought it might be fun to do a thought/math exercise.

If you could get lucky, and get the league-leader in batting average at every position over the last two weeks of the season, how far north could you push your team’s overall batting average?

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Streaming For Offense: Home Runs

We all want home runs. And so it’s tough to stream for power — if they coulda hit homers, they woulda hit them allready. But we can look for the best situations for power, and look for borderline power guys for people of differently-sized leagues, and maybe we’ll help you ‘luck’ into some extra dingers for your playoff fantasy squad.

The basic philosophy is simple. Power is well-correlated with hot weather, and certain parks are more conducive to home runs. You can add in a fly-ball pitcher if you want to really want to set the scene for Elvis Andrus‘ one home run of the year.

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Streaming For Offense: Steals

We stream all the time for pitching stats, but now it’s getting into crunch time for every stat on the board, especially in head-to-head leagues. Let’s look at the schedule this week and try to identify some key players in each category. Oh, and if this isn’t enough, check out the Daily Fantasy Strategy column on the site. If you squint right, you can find what you’re looking for in the Daily Five, even if you’re using it for a different reason.

We’ll start with steals because steals might be the best offensive stat to stream for.

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Playoff Strategy: Reacquainting Myself with H2H Leagues

A year or two before ottoneu was founded (so about a decade ago) I swore off head-to-head baseball leagues. The beauty of baseball, I think, is in the daily grind – six months of daily grind, with no one day being more important than any other. Besides, if you are going to make one day count more than another, choosing September, when the rules of the game change and when different teams have such wildly different incentives and goals just does not make sense to me.

But I am now in my second year playing in a matchup league again. I took over a last place team in this dynasty league, barely missed the post-season a year ago, and now I am just a few hours away from my first playoff matchup in years. And the strategy for the post-season is taking some getting used to.

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Blow Up Your Innings

I’m not intending to hurt the feelings of three quarters of you all, but this post is mainly for those of you fortunate to be in serious contention for money and/or bragging rights and/or special unnamed prize. Or whatever else you might be playing for that I probably don’t want to hear about. Chances are, if you’re still coming to Rotographs in late August, you’re at least sniffing the top third of your league or perhaps your day job lacks any level of mental stimulation.

I tend to use innings pitched as a gauge as to whether a team has an inflated win or strikeout total (ahead of pace) or if there’s a team lurking, behind pace in innings. It can put standings into context. This applies in leagues with an innings limit, of course. The rest of you can just move on. But if you’re up there still shaking a menacing fist at the leader of your league, or if perhaps you are the leader, I encourage you to just blow up your innings now.

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Pitching Streamers Through the Weekend

As we head into the last month of the season, many fantasy owners are clamoring for more strikeouts and wins. Obviously, chasing wins is a fool’s errand (see: the Cardinals boxscore last night as Michael Wacha blew Shelby Miller’s win, allowing 3 runs in an inning of work, yet recorded the almighty win). But obviously, the more starts you accumulate, the greater the opportunity for the holy win, and of course, strikeouts.

With a large base of innings already in the books, that means that a pitcher’s implosion won’t hurt nearly as much at this point, so a streaming strategy isn’t ill-advised. So with that in mind, here is one recommended streaming play a day for games from Wednesday through Sunday. Pitchers should all be available in the majority of 12-team mixed leagues and shallower. Of course, since I don’t know who is in your free agent pool, there could be some better options, in which case I fully expect you to ask me about them in the comments.

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Trading 401

As we get closer to our league trade deadlines, I wanted to follow up with more thoughts on trading after my piece a couple of weeks ago. Then, I talked about throwing player values out the window and trading for needs based on your position in the various statistical categories. Don’t worry about overpaying if you still expect the trade to net you positive points. That concept still applies, probably even more so now, but I also wanted to share some other random thoughts and go more in-depth on that idea.

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Trading For the Stretch Run

We’re about 60% of the way through the regular season, the Major League trading deadline is coming in a week and a half and if your league has its own deadline, it’s also likely coming at some point over the next month. For me personally, trading is one of the most frustrating activities in fantasy baseball. Whether your potential trading partner’s player valuations are idiotic or his response for declining your offer that you genuinely believe helps both teams is illogical, I don’t really enjoy the whole process. It feels more like work to me than something fun. But, sometimes we simply need to make a trade, whether to fill a hole using our depth or to plug a categorical weakness by utilizing a strength.

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B.J. Upton, Chris Davis and Breakouts

Chris Davis owners are experiencing an unexpected surprise this season. Instead of a possible corner infield or injury replacement, they have one of the top players in the league for pennies on the dollar. On the other end of the spectrum is B.J. Upton who Ron Shandler picked to have “40/40 upside”, but is in the discussion has the worst everyday player in the majors. Going into the 2013 season, Davis and Upton were projected to have similar production because of a uncertain skill set and the similarities ended then.

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Know When to Fold’Em, Reprised

A couple months ago, I shared a piece that explained how I pro-rate standings in ottoneu leagues to figure out where I ACTUALLY stand and what I should be doing moving forward. Now that we are at the half-way mark, I wanted to revisit that piece, make a couple adjustments to my process, and update my plans.

If you haven’t read that piece, you can start with that and take a look at how I look at all stats on a per-game and per inning basis in roto leagues and the score I use in points leagues to see a more realistic look at what each team is doing.

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