Draft season is fast approaching. That means that draft strategy will once again be a hot topic, as fantasy enthusiasts argue the merits of one philosophy versus another. But one particular debate threatens to make my head explode every single year. That is the notion of making your draft selection based on “best player available” (BPA) versus “position scarcity” (PS). The decision makes no sense to me. This is why.
Missing on an early-round pick is one of the surest ways to ruin your fantasy season. Owners who wound up with Ryan Braun or Joey Votto last season probably had to get creative during the season in order to remain competitive in their leagues. While missing on a pick can be devastating, the first couple rounds of a draft are rarely stressful for the prepared owner. You have an idea of which players will be on the board when you pick, and it’s not too difficult to make a list of the top-20 players in your league. Even if you do that, different strategies may force you to change your mind. So, how do you prepare for the first few rounds of your draft?
Last week, I tried to puzzle through something that has been bothering me – how depth affects replacement level. Consider outfield and shortstop. Last season, I might be looking at Josh Reddick and Adeiny Hechavarria as my first picks off the wire. I can do something with Reddick. In fact, I actually want to own Reddick. I like his offensive capabilities, even if he’s underwhelmed in recent performances. With Hechavarria, I would desperately seek a replacement.
The post wasn’t my best – I failed to communicate my message. My first gaffe was to create a pre-draft scenario. I probably should have gone with “in a vacuum” since my goal was to explore the possibility of trading $20 for $17. Despite my lack of clarity, the post did generate a lot of useful comments. Today, I’ll try to summarize and incorporate the dialogue.
We’re going to do two things today. First, I am gathering all articles about Ottoneu keepers into one semi-sorted place. This should give you plenty of resources to prepare for Cut Day on January 31. We’ll also delve into more keeper related decisions in the next two weeks.
Please use the comments for any ottoneu keeper or roster construction questions. I would like to keep things focused on ottoneu and keepers, but we can delve into other subjects too.
One last reminder: it usually behooves you to hang onto all of your players until sometime near the keeper deadline. I may want to dump my $7 Jason Grilli today, but what if a shark eats Craig Kimbrel’s foot tomorrow?
Allow me to start by saying that I really dislike holds as a category. Saves plus holds makes plenty of sense – you’re basically telling owners to draft the best relievers regardless of role. Separating the two baffles me – at least in a standard league. I’m sure there are some unusual league configurations where it can work. I don’t like the category, but I still have to live with it in some leagues. What follows is how I cope with with holds.
Imagine you own a $20 outfielder. It’s pre-draft, and he’s the only player on your roster. He costs $20, and he’s projected to provide $20 of value. You’re offered a $17 shortstop who is projected to be worth $17. The projections properly account for position-adjusted replacement level. Would you take the trade?
No, right? You wouldn’t give me a dollar for three quarters, so why should you trade $20 for $17. Who cares about the positions, that’s supposedly included in the price.
Dig down another layer and you might consider the swap. It’s a $3 loss, but perhaps you can make up the ground in-draft. Shortstop is such a scarce position that we’re probably talking about trading the 20th best outfielder for the third best shortstop. Is losing $3 in a trade worth solving the fantasy nightmare known as shortstop?
I posit that some acronyms are ridiculous. For example, BATNA engenders images of the very worst of the Batman series. You know, like little inexplicable gremlins playing ice hockey with a giant diamond in a bank while Arnold Schwarzenegger rampages. Why doesn’t my bank have massive diamonds sitting out in the open?
However, BATNA can play a useful role in our ongoing discussion about spying and negotiating. It stands for Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement, which sort of defines itself. For fantasy baseball purposes, it means: “what will I do if I don’t make this trade.”
Yesterday, we discussed how to be a spymaster in your league. It’s a role that’s both fun and rewarding. As usual, we had a good chat session in the comments. I was also emailed a reminder of a previous life – an article titled “Negotiation is not the same as haggling.”
Last week, I wrote about collusion. The comments are a reminder that collusion is mostly a straw man. When it does occur, it’s usually a league conspiring against an individual rather than two owners working out a lopsided traded. Those seemingly one-sided swaps happen because somebody has divergent opinions from the fantasy norm. Either they really like a player who isn’t drawing much attention, or they’re eager to sell high on an established veteran who they think is due for a flop.
Last week, fellow RotoGraphist Mike Podhorzer reviewed a $9 fictional pitching staff he created earlier in the year. I did something similar in my home league and the industry league Blog Wars. The success of the strategy was mixed, so let’s delve into the details.