An Alternative To Punting
Friend Eno explored the world of punted statistics yesterday. For those of you not in the know, “punting” occurs when a fantasy owner does not attempt to score in a specific stat. It’s most commonly seen with stolen bases and saves. Eno’s findings confirm that those are the optimal categories to punt.
Eno also discusses when to punt, noting that it’s a much more viable strategy in an H2H league than Roto. He explains the details, so check it out. If you’d like to discuss why H2H and Roto leagues are treated differently, let’s chat in the comments.
I have my own variation on punting. I suspect many of you already use a similar tactic, so consider today’s article a vindication of the approach. To win a Roto league, you usually need to fire on all cylinders. Scoring a one or two in any category is usually the end of a title run.
Rather than willfully punting a category, there are a few that can be ignored. Let’s look at batting average. It’s not closely correlated with any other standard 5×5 stat, yet it’s not uncorrelated with anything but stolen bases. If you draft to maximize runs, RBI, home runs, and steals, you’ll usually end up with a middle-of-the-pack batting average. The category solves itself.
On the pitching side, saves and wins usually work the same way. If you draft strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, your starters will tend to win ball games and your relievers will usually work their way into save situations. Some might be cursed with a bad team (think Cole Hamels) or stuck behind another relief stud (Wade Davis), but those counting stats are likely to resolve themselves over a season.
Ignorance has another advantage over punting – you have the option to pivot midseason. If your Chris Carter–Lucas Duda tandem are not producing enough home runs, you can try to gain ground in batting average. If the Mariners just aren’t giving Felix Hernandez run support (again), you can swap him out for David Price. Closers can be purchased if you want to bolster your saves.
In Roto leagues, a pure punt will leave you dead in the water in August. Everything has to go exactly according to plan. Nothing ever goes according to plan. Leaving a few categories to work out on their own gifts you with alternatives. You’ll have flexibility to your overall strategy. You can jump on any opportunity and benefit. Simply put, it’s a better approach than punting.
It’s still best to address all categories in a draft. A punt should never be strategy 1a. To draw on the football term it’s named after, nobody punts on first down. Or second down. Or third. Punting is a “I do this or I lose” tactic. It’s a sign that you botched your draft. Now you need to hope your opponents screw up too.
Ignoring a category is more like a third-and-long screen pass. It’s a safe play, and dammit, it actually works sometimes. It’s still a sign that things are not going your way in the draft. You shouldn’t plan to ignore average or wins from the first pick.
In short, optimize everything. I always try to win every single category. Just know which categories you’re willing to fudge if and when the time comes.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Bogus football analogies. Not that they’re not (mostly) accurate. Just bogus.
Did you pay your dues? Did you read the news? This morning when the paper landed in your yard?
Do you know their name? Can you play their game? Without losing track or coming down a bit too hard?
I dunno, the third and long screen pass analogy mostly worked for me. What a picky dickbag comment guy.
Completely agree with this for Roto. If you’re in a competitive league, you should never punt unless you only care about placing in the top 5-ish in your league. The champs of most good roto leagues will be strong across the board.
In a 10-12 team league I tend to go light on SB early due to the fact there are several SB guys available very late in a draft or on the wavier wire.
Say it takes about 210 steals to win the category 160 is average and 110 is bottom. I will aim for about 130 steals and hunt the waiver wire at for steals. It seems to work because there are always 30 pace steal guys floating around.
Does this strategy make sense to you?
I don’t punt, but you can cobble instead. Saves for example are the last thing I pick up in the draft since I can cobble together a pretty decent closing staff off waivers. I never draft a SB only type player because three to four 15SB guys with HRs and RBIs works better. I also play in a league that doesn’t have runs, so SBs are that much less valuable since those leadoff SB guys don’t give you any other cat.
So basically kicking a field goal?
Hey Brad, I was wondering what suggestions you have to mask who you are truly interested in bidding on during the auction. I anticipate a few owners bidding up players they think I want.
My first ideas included nomination strategy, how quickly or slowly I bid, and if I jump bid or not. I was wondering if you had any ideas on surviving an auction like this
I never nominate guys I’m targeting. I nominate guys to suck money from other owners. (Like if I’m set at 1B, I’m often tossing out other high-dollar 1B for a while.)
The speed thing, eh, I think most reasonably astute owners can see through that. It is funny to watch guys hem and haw and sigh heavily before meekly bidding when you KNOW it’s someone they want badly.
Don’t jump bid to a point where you’re gonna get stuck with someone you don’t bid at that price. My favorite example was years ago when someone tossed out “Odalis Perez, $20!” and got nothing but silence (and amused looks). He probably would’ve gone for $12-15 through normal bidding at the time.
1. I think the rule and reasoning is wrong. If you have Pujols’ value down as $25 and he goes from $25, you’re not sucking $25 from another owner. If players are being undervalued at a certain point in the draft, throw out your guys. If they’re being overvalued, avoid your own targets. My problem is I want to take advantage lulls in the draft (I anticipate the beginning due to others underestimating inflation in my league) by nominating my targets, but if people perceive those as my targets, I won’t gain.
2. You’re presupposing you know that the other owner wants the player.
3. I didn’t mean jump bidding to a final value. I mention jump bidding near the beginning because the higher you raise the price, the fewer owners will bid. The fewer owners that bid, the fewer owners that become invested in that player. (Ebay auctions that start at $.01 end higher than auctions that start higher)
Besides, jump bidding is a risk. Part of the strategy is hoping you will catch people off guard and save a few dollars. If you’re clumsy with it, yes, you might lose a few dollars, but if you’re willing to bid a certain price, you should be happy when you win him at that price. In your Perez example, maybe Perez would have gone for $12-$15, but if you don’t jump bid and many people enter the bidding, the bidding might have approached $20, or even surpassed it.
I often jump bid on players, whether I want them or not, just to speed up the draft. Too many jabronies waiting until the last second to bid Kershaw up to $45 by a dollar at a time gets dull.
If you ignore AVG – that is to say, create hitter values only based on R/HR/RBI/SB – then you are effectively punting it. Everybody with a decent average will be overpriced compared to your values. You might fluke into a couple guys who are .280 hitters if they’re really good bargains and help a lot in the other categories, just as you would if you were punting, but you will almost certainly be projected to finish last in the category.
Same goes with Saves; if you ignore them and focus on ace relievers, then only the ones projected for 0 saves will have a price anywhere close to their value with saves removed. You will be projected to finish last in saves.
Wins can be ignored since all starting pitchers are projected for roughly the same amount of wins per IP. It’s impossible to “punt” wins in the traditional sense without also punting K’s and likely not meeting the minimum IP requirements for ERA/WHIP.
Point is: ignoring and punting is effectively the same thing.
I think of it differently. My valuations don’t exclude AVG, but I’ll often say “oh, I need more HR or SB, let’s try to target somebody for that soon.” I’m still paying for average when it’s present, it’s just never a stat I’m intentionally maximizing.
I’m still ironing this theory out, so bear with me:
Is not the risk in punting saves, let’s say, in H2H, that a savvy opponent will look at your lineup, see that you have no closers, and just start one closer (assume weekly lineup changes). The opponent then nearly guarantees himself a win in saves and can start two additional Ps (assume he would’ve otherwise started 3 closers). With those two additional Ps the opponent cuts well into the advantage you hope to gain by not starting closers and instead starting elite-ratio RPs or an extra SP.
This is why I punt saves but pick up a nominal $1 closer for my bench. Most teams in my league only run out 1 RP(we add QS as a 6th category, so trying to win saves hurts you in 3 categories) so if I can match or better my opponent in projected starts while using my bargain bin closer, I do that. If I can’t, or if he has multiple closers on roster, I maximize starts and go from there.
That sounds like a failure in league setup. Why have rules that make using just 1 RP the optimal strategy?
I won my lone H2H leagues last season with a similar initial approach (2nd regular season, won playoffs). The only closer I drafted was Hawkins, but I also stashed Doolittle, Melancon, and Benoit so I pivoted to a relief heavy approach later in the season.
It’s not that this is the optimal strategy. It’s just A strategy that can work. One of many.