Wet-Blanketing Three Players You Love

It is much easier to get excited about a player than it is to see the negative. Sure, if a guy has a rotten injury record, it is pretty easy to knock him down. But most fantasy players are eager to identify to the next set of sleepers or breakouts or whatever term you feel is adequate to describe middle-round guys who will explode into early-round assets. What about looking at some of the flaws of those early-to-mid round guys we’re all so certain will explode this year? There are certainly reasons to love these guys (and several of them are guys I’m quite high on coming into the season), but let’s at least be aware of the shortcomings and what could possibly hold them back from that big time season we’re banking on.

Anthony Rendon, WAS

Man, it’s easy to like this guy’s game. The guy hit everywhere from college to majors with only health holding him back. He is now being tabbed as a firm second-rounder and even going as high as the late-first round in 15-teamers thanks to some legitimate 20-20 potential as well as some hot dual-position eligibility. But it’s been one year of excellence. He’s going ahead of a lot more established guys and even guys who aren’t exactly established just yet (I’d say it takes three-plus years to earn the “established” tag).

I know the second base eligibility is in play, but does it really push him past Adrian Beltre? Beltre doesn’t run like Rendon, but how certain are we that Rendon continues to run? Given his health history, I could see a nagging injury or two putting the red light on him right away. Even if that were the case and everything else essentially held, he would basically be the 2010 or 2012 version of teammate Ryan Zimmerman.

Now there is absolutely nothing wrong with that, Zimmerman went .307-85-25-85-4 in 2010 and .282-93-25-95-5 in 2012, both excellent seasons, but they were neither first nor second round efforts. And that factors in a bit of a power boost with the batting average holding or rising. If there is an injury severe enough to slow him on the basepaths, there is a good chance it would likely factor in negatively to the rest of line, too. Of course, if 2010 or 2012 Zimmerman is the downside, then sign me up so hard. OK sorry, it was really tough to come up with a neg case on Rendon, but I had to try since I’m bananas about him this season.

George Springer, HOU

Springer was three home runs from a 40-40 season in 2013 across Double- and Triple-A. He went back down to Triple-A and fired up a hot 38-50 pace in his 13 games (.353/.459/.647, 3 HRs, 4 SBs in 61 PA) before getting the call. He started slowly, but then the power exploded and he was at 20 HRs by July 19th. Unfortunately, his season ended at that point with a quad strain. Springer has gained some offseason  helium and currently sits 46th off the board, including an ADP of 26th at CBS. The strain isn’t expected to be an issue in 2015, but he is far from flawless. What about the 33% strikeout? This follows from his minor league days.

He had a 27% rate in that near-40-40 effort during 2013, and a 26.4% rate in his 1271 PA as minor leaguer. He also didn’t run much while up with the Astros, either. He stole just five bases in his 345 PA, pacing him for about 11 in a full season. He stole 32 and 45 in his two full minor league seasons and six in his 68 minor league PA (he added 7 PA in Quad Cities in what was going to be a rehab for his return). Are the Astros going to let him run at will? (I mean, probably, but we don’t know.) They do let Jose Altuve run wild, but does their #3 hitter get the same treatment?

With this kind of swing-and-miss and possibly modest stolen base totals, what is his real upside this year? It’s probably Curtis Granderson’s 2012 effort. Granderson hit 41 HRs in 2011 and seemed destined to continue to power trend so he dialed up his strikeout rate and muscled up for another 43 HRs. His 29% strikeout rate remains a career-high. Grandy also had 106 RBIs, 10 SBs, and a .232 AVG. Now, those bidding aggressively on Springer are hoping for Granderson’s 2011. This would require a lowering of his strikeout rate, but these are the kinds of stars in eyes of Springer proponents: .262/.364/.552 with 41 HRs, 119 RBIs, and 25 SBs. But how likely is it that Springer drops to a 24.5% strikeout rate?

Christian Yelich, MIA

Yelich is getting huge love this offseason! His first full season offered a strong .284-94-9-54-21 line in 660 PA. No single number jumps out as extraordinary, but together they represent strong value as a low-$20s dollar player. The fantasy community is essentially betting on at least a full repeat from the 23-year old. A big part of that bet is on the rest of the team because the 94 runs are a driving force in Yelich’s value. Those runs tied him for the 10th-most in the game last year. Can Giancarlo Stanton, Michael Morse, Martin Prado, and Marcell Ozuna push him across for another 94? This bet on Yelich seems to project some growth, too, but I’m not sure where it’s coming from for him.

The batting average is no certainty at .284 after a .356 BABIP, though he is a heavy groundball guy (62% career) with some speed (however, he has a below average infield-hit percentage and his line drive rate is average). The heavy groundball lean makes it hard to bet on any real power upside. He probably got the most out of his 78 flies last year with an 11.5% HR/FB rate and with just a 17% career flyball rate, the volume is unlikely to rise much.

Should he really be going ahead of Charlie Blackmon? Even if you want to lop off Blackmon’s April when he had a .374 AVG, 5 HRs, and 7 SBs, he still went for a .271 AVG, 14 HRs, and 21 SBs in the final five months. Or he was Brett Gardner’s (.256, 17 HRs, 21 SBs) full season in the final five months. Speaking of Gardner, are you really getting that much less upside with him 70 picks after Yelich? If Yelich’s average doesn’t hold, Gardner will out-earn him and unless Yelich ups his average to like .295-plus, they just won’t be that different despite a big cost disparity.

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The truth is you can come up with a scenario for just about everyone. Hell, even several upper-first round picks have a looming question or two. But the point of this exercise is to just encourage you to entertain the downside of your 2015 crush so you know what you’re getting into with your investment. You might still be perfectly comfortable investing, but you might realize you’re betting more on a name than anything else. The same skillset might be available at a much cheaper price. Or you might realize the downside is too much to sustain at the current price.