Wet-Blanketing Three Players You Love
It is much easier to get excited about a player than it is to see the negative. Sure, if a guy has a rotten injury record, it is pretty easy to knock him down. But most fantasy players are eager to identify to the next set of sleepers or breakouts or whatever term you feel is adequate to describe middle-round guys who will explode into early-round assets. What about looking at some of the flaws of those early-to-mid round guys we’re all so certain will explode this year? There are certainly reasons to love these guys (and several of them are guys I’m quite high on coming into the season), but let’s at least be aware of the shortcomings and what could possibly hold them back from that big time season we’re banking on.
Anthony Rendon, WAS
Man, it’s easy to like this guy’s game. The guy hit everywhere from college to majors with only health holding him back. He is now being tabbed as a firm second-rounder and even going as high as the late-first round in 15-teamers thanks to some legitimate 20-20 potential as well as some hot dual-position eligibility. But it’s been one year of excellence. He’s going ahead of a lot more established guys and even guys who aren’t exactly established just yet (I’d say it takes three-plus years to earn the “established” tag).
I know the second base eligibility is in play, but does it really push him past Adrian Beltre? Beltre doesn’t run like Rendon, but how certain are we that Rendon continues to run? Given his health history, I could see a nagging injury or two putting the red light on him right away. Even if that were the case and everything else essentially held, he would basically be the 2010 or 2012 version of teammate Ryan Zimmerman.
Now there is absolutely nothing wrong with that, Zimmerman went .307-85-25-85-4 in 2010 and .282-93-25-95-5 in 2012, both excellent seasons, but they were neither first nor second round efforts. And that factors in a bit of a power boost with the batting average holding or rising. If there is an injury severe enough to slow him on the basepaths, there is a good chance it would likely factor in negatively to the rest of line, too. Of course, if 2010 or 2012 Zimmerman is the downside, then sign me up so hard. OK sorry, it was really tough to come up with a neg case on Rendon, but I had to try since I’m bananas about him this season.
George Springer, HOU
Springer was three home runs from a 40-40 season in 2013 across Double- and Triple-A. He went back down to Triple-A and fired up a hot 38-50 pace in his 13 games (.353/.459/.647, 3 HRs, 4 SBs in 61 PA) before getting the call. He started slowly, but then the power exploded and he was at 20 HRs by July 19th. Unfortunately, his season ended at that point with a quad strain. Springer has gained some offseason helium and currently sits 46th off the board, including an ADP of 26th at CBS. The strain isn’t expected to be an issue in 2015, but he is far from flawless. What about the 33% strikeout? This follows from his minor league days.
He had a 27% rate in that near-40-40 effort during 2013, and a 26.4% rate in his 1271 PA as minor leaguer. He also didn’t run much while up with the Astros, either. He stole just five bases in his 345 PA, pacing him for about 11 in a full season. He stole 32 and 45 in his two full minor league seasons and six in his 68 minor league PA (he added 7 PA in Quad Cities in what was going to be a rehab for his return). Are the Astros going to let him run at will? (I mean, probably, but we don’t know.) They do let Jose Altuve run wild, but does their #3 hitter get the same treatment?
With this kind of swing-and-miss and possibly modest stolen base totals, what is his real upside this year? It’s probably Curtis Granderson’s 2012 effort. Granderson hit 41 HRs in 2011 and seemed destined to continue to power trend so he dialed up his strikeout rate and muscled up for another 43 HRs. His 29% strikeout rate remains a career-high. Grandy also had 106 RBIs, 10 SBs, and a .232 AVG. Now, those bidding aggressively on Springer are hoping for Granderson’s 2011. This would require a lowering of his strikeout rate, but these are the kinds of stars in eyes of Springer proponents: .262/.364/.552 with 41 HRs, 119 RBIs, and 25 SBs. But how likely is it that Springer drops to a 24.5% strikeout rate?
Christian Yelich, MIA
Yelich is getting huge love this offseason! His first full season offered a strong .284-94-9-54-21 line in 660 PA. No single number jumps out as extraordinary, but together they represent strong value as a low-$20s dollar player. The fantasy community is essentially betting on at least a full repeat from the 23-year old. A big part of that bet is on the rest of the team because the 94 runs are a driving force in Yelich’s value. Those runs tied him for the 10th-most in the game last year. Can Giancarlo Stanton, Michael Morse, Martin Prado, and Marcell Ozuna push him across for another 94? This bet on Yelich seems to project some growth, too, but I’m not sure where it’s coming from for him.
The batting average is no certainty at .284 after a .356 BABIP, though he is a heavy groundball guy (62% career) with some speed (however, he has a below average infield-hit percentage and his line drive rate is average). The heavy groundball lean makes it hard to bet on any real power upside. He probably got the most out of his 78 flies last year with an 11.5% HR/FB rate and with just a 17% career flyball rate, the volume is unlikely to rise much.
Should he really be going ahead of Charlie Blackmon? Even if you want to lop off Blackmon’s April when he had a .374 AVG, 5 HRs, and 7 SBs, he still went for a .271 AVG, 14 HRs, and 21 SBs in the final five months. Or he was Brett Gardner’s (.256, 17 HRs, 21 SBs) full season in the final five months. Speaking of Gardner, are you really getting that much less upside with him 70 picks after Yelich? If Yelich’s average doesn’t hold, Gardner will out-earn him and unless Yelich ups his average to like .295-plus, they just won’t be that different despite a big cost disparity.
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The truth is you can come up with a scenario for just about everyone. Hell, even several upper-first round picks have a looming question or two. But the point of this exercise is to just encourage you to entertain the downside of your 2015 crush so you know what you’re getting into with your investment. You might still be perfectly comfortable investing, but you might realize you’re betting more on a name than anything else. The same skillset might be available at a much cheaper price. Or you might realize the downside is too much to sustain at the current price.
Hey Paul just wondering is Ken Giles established, or is that one year thing thrown out the window for a pitcher who has never closed in the Majors and doesn’t have that role as yet and is on what is probably a very bad team?
I think you answered your own question.
Love Rendon, that K rate scares me with Springer(like 4th rounder) and Yelich is overrated.
He’s being “funny” because I somehow hurt his feelings by taking Giles in LABR Mixed. It’s ruled his life pretty much since.
Yeah in the 12th round ahead of more “established” closers who actually have the job.
And it has REALLY hurt your feelings.
I’m getting really bored with this, so never mind, it was a “great” pick that could have been made ten rounds later.
Are you *really* getting bored with it or did you actually just bring it up again out of nowhere solely to start stuff?
Ok you got me, I brought it up to highlight this contradiction in what you say and what you do, in a fantasy baseball drafting context. With that said, I enjoy your articles and love the podcasts but I just couldn’t resist the opportunity to throw a wet blanket on that Giles pick again, it may pan out and I may have to eat crow. My only issue was I believe you could have gotten him quite a few rounds later, not unlike what you are basically saying about the above players. They may not be worth their ADP so wait and pop them at a more reasonable spot or let others take the risk.
I think you’re misinterpreting the point of this. I draft guys with risk all the time. I don’t care about ADP at all. I’m not saying never touch guys who aren’t established. I’m suggesting that we be more aware of the downside for our favorites to make sure we still want to invest. As I mentioned in my draft recap, the Giles downside IMO is a high quality middle relief season in the vein of Betances/Davis (though not quite so historic) and we deemed that risk worthwhile bc the upside is a top 10 closer. We also took Springer in that draft. So this isn’t a “don’t draft these three guys” piece.
Well I don’t think I misinterpreted this, which I agree with by the way, “The same skill set might be available at a much cheaper price (substitute ADP). Or you might realize the downside is too much to sustain at the current price (ADP).
IMO HUGE downside in the Giles pick given he doesn’t have the job, and good middle relievers can basically be picked up anytime throughout the year ala Davis and Betances, heck even guys that actually take over as closers often are available. So even if he gets the job is his upside that great given that he is not an established closer, he’s pitched in the Majors for a grand total of four months as a middle reliever and to a lesser extent Philly might be awful. For you as an expert drafter I thought it was unreasonable risk /reward at too steep a price (12th round pick) also taking into account actual closers that went later.
The better question is if you died of pancreatic cancer, would anyone miss you? I doubt it.
Well I know your wife would be upset.
Re Blackmon, didn’t his scorching April get him tons of playing time that he probably wouldn’t have otherwise gotten? They sent Dickerson down because of him! Talk about not repeating — Blackmon’s playing time.
I guess part of my point is that he showed in the final five months that he was pretty deserving of that PT because he continued to produce. Who’s going to play ahead of him? Stubbs is v. lefties-only and Barnes isn’t anything to reason to bench CB. CB’s PT is OK.
Isn’t Blackmon’s “one good season” nearly the same situation as Rendon above?
Blackmon’s HR/FB% and FB distances and angles don’t support anything like that kind of production going forward
Who else is starting for them? Isn’t it Dickerson, Cargo, and Blackmon?
No one is expecting Springer to come close to Granderson’s 2011 numbers, but regardless, 20 HRs in half a season is pretty impressive even with that K rate. His average should jump up a bit as his BABIP last year was .294. With his above average speed and ability to mash, he’s more of a .315 – .320 BABIP. I actually think the 30 HR projections for him are a bit low, I’m thinking more like 35. The steals however are less bankable based on last year’s total. I do think he has 20 steal upside with 15 being more realistic.
35/15 is worthy of a top 30 pick.
The point is he has the downside to be nowhere that. I realize/agree that 35/15 is worth a top 30 pick. Jason and I took him in the third rd of the LABR Mixed Draft. The point of the exercise is just to be more aware of the downside of your favorites. I think we develop blindspots at times. I’m huge on Rendon & Springer this year, so this was partly for my own sake. I also think Yelich is being largely overrated so I included him.
Re: Springer & the granderson comps, given the declining offensive environment, I would imagine it’s possible for him to post numbers similar to Granderson’s 2012 and still produce value equivalent to or slightly below what granderson produced in 2011. I’m guessing the ADP is a reflection of that as well as optimism on the SB front
I get all of that. I’m not disagreeing with his ADP. This was meant to outline some of the downside. By the way, the Granderson comps are his UPSIDE… that’s if everything goes right. That rarely happens. His downside is much worse than those Granderson seasons. I think many see an upside even brighter than those Granderson seasons (at least from what I’ve heard on pods and read in pieces) with a solid chance of it happening, but I have a hard time seeing him do much AVG-wise.
In your opinion, how ‘safe’ is Springer in an OBP league? If he keeps walking at an 11%+ clip, are the strikeouts really that big of a deal?
I read this fearing that you’d mention Kolten Wong, the only guy I have as a keeper in both leagues (he is a player I love so somehow I assumed everyone would love him and you’d break our hearts). What do you think about him relative to other 2B who have similar ADP or auction prices you’ve seen?
I agree on Rendon and Yelich. Rendon was excellent in 2014 but just a slight dip in home runs and stolen bases, say a drop to 12 SB/18 HR and he looks a lot like Ben Zobrist circa 2011-2012, good but not a Top 15 player. Yelich is essentially Denard Span (160 ADP) but with maybe five+ more home runs and five less stolen bases or what a healthy season from Dexter Fowler (260 ADP) might look like.
I also spend some time trying to look for flaws in guys. I like to argue with myself. The thing I came up for on Rendon is that he saw more than 60% fastballs last year (28th among qualified hitters) and he crushed fastballs (13th best wFB among qualified). I would expect as teams form their game plan against Rendon this year he’ll see fewer fastballs. It’ll be interesting to see if this happens and if so, how he adjusts.
Nice picks! I am thinking that winning a re-draft league is going to be easier than ever by valuing veterans and pushing these type of guys way down the list. That is always a sound strategy, but the hype has far exceeded the talent of this trio.
The only wet-blanketing I can see of the great Anthony Rendon would be the possibility he may lose 2B/MI eligibility next year. I will hold out hope that Yunel Escobar and Danny Espinosa need time off in 2015, and that Mr. Rendon manages at least 10 games at 2B.
Yelich is a fine looking gentleman. That’s all I got.
Thank you. Finally, a voice of reason re: Rendon
Nice player, good background, but let’s face it — nobody, but NOBODY expected him to be a top 15-20 player. If Jose Altuve is not a given to hit .340 again, then I think Rendon is no more of a lock to score 112 runs again. Ever. And it’s that absurd run total that is what’s really driving his overinflated ranking. I’m buying into Rendon as a top 40 player, certainly, but top 15-20? Someone else can have him at that price.
I agree. I find it hard to draft a player that came out of nowhere at a price that forces him to repeat his 2014 season.
Rendon hardly “came out of nowhere”. He was a high 1st rd pick who could just as easily have been one of the very top picks. He was a highly regarded prospect. His SB were a bit of a surprise, but not his bat. He just never played in the minors for long, and in that short span moved up rapidly. Always showed excellent OB/AVG skills. Fact that he moved up and out of minors so quickly is, itself and indication of his pedigree and his readiness.