A couple of weeks back, Mike asked for possible topic ideas. Today, I’m going to go through some topics that can be quickly answered or why they may be too massive to take on. Some reasonable questions were asked that deserve their own article so don’t fret if it wasn’t answered. Also, let me know which of these topics can be expanded and how?

Rock Lobster: Which stats are the most volatile week to week in h2h leagues? I assume something like Ws fluctuates more from week to week than SBs, but by how much? Could knowing this information lead to any insights regarding roster construction in h2h leagues? Or is it just noise?

This is a huge undertaking. Tanner Bell compiled weekly stats for a few studies in our book, and those took months. It’s something that could be done again but what are the standard points systems used? Just the standards at ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS? Any others? It’s doable but once jumping in, I think it’ll be a one-time study so everything desired needs to be in place before it begins.

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Yesterday, I posted the first 15 out of 30 of My Dudes who I have been drafting at each “round” of 12-team drafts, per National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP) between March 16 and April 8. Here are the last 15! Plus! As a bonus, I’ll briefly chronicle 10 players I’ve been targeting for my bench depth in 15-team leagues as well. Enjoy!

Thirty of My Dudes (One for Every Round), Part 2

Round 16: Christian Vázquez, BOS C (ADP 192.11)

I came away from my deep dive on Vázquez surprised by how impressed I was with his profile. He’s not an elite hitter or anything, but I’ll take a catcher who can hit 20 homers with an average that won’t kill you. (All of the projection systems have taken the hard under on his power this year, by the way. I’ll smash the over, but I don’t expect another 25-homer pace or anything.)

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Last week, I highlighted my 20 favorite mortal locks for 2020. Effectively, I compiled a list of 20 hitters and pitchers (primarily hitters) who have historically out-performed their current average draft position (ADP), such that, barring injury or unforeseen decline, they should do so again with ease.

Here, I will highlight one, and only one, player in each round (assuming a 12-team format) who (1) is not a mortal lock and (2) I found myself targeting frequently in drafts this year. Again, given draft season has mostly come and gone — and given that this season may never play out — I figure I could do this this one time. Granted, I still have two home leagues to draft, so it’s possible this could backfire. Oh well!

This doesn’t need a substantial prologue. Here are the first 15 of 30 players I have found myself strongly considering at their National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP) data from March 16 through April 9 (130 drafts).

Thirty of My Dudes (One for Every Round), Part 1

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The season may not happen, and nearly all of my industry and high-stakes drafts are complete (not my home leagues, though), so I feel like it’s as good a time as any to publish My Guys — or, not My Guys, exactly, but The Guys I Absolutely Can’t Ignore at Their Prices. I’ll call this latter group, for short, my mortal locks. Incidentally and hardly coincidentally, the overlapping portion of the Venn Diagram of My Guys and my mortal locks is quite large.

My mortal locks (a term my uncle uses that I absolutely love): the guys who I can nearly guarantee will turn a profit at their National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP). The average draft produces a 65% return on investment (ROI). In other words, that’s a 35% loss, or roughly $90 of a $260 auction budget poorly spent. If you can at least break even, let alone turn a profit, on every player on your roster, you are already setting yourself up for success. It’s nearly impossible, but it doesn’t make it a bad goal.

If you Google “mortal lock,” the first result is a website called waywordradio.org, in which it defines mortal lock as “a cinch, an odds-on favorite, a guaranteed thing or event.” The next result, though, is Urban Dictionary — far more reputable — which defines mortal lock as “a bet that is virtually guaranteed winner, but in reality it is just a coin flip.”

This post embraces both definitions. My mortal locks are mortal locks precisely because they have proven to be as close to guaranteed as anything or anyone else. In reality, nothing is guaranteed. But I’ll convince myself something must be.

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The following is the second part of my 2020 Tout Wars Head-to-Head Points League recap. You can read Part I of my recap here.

For the second straight year, I had the honor and privilege of participating in one of the most prestigious fantasy baseball industry leagues – Tout Wars (toutwars.com). This was my very first live Tout Wars auction. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, we drafted online on the Sunday of March 15, 2020.

In Part I of my recap, I discussed the league rules, some of the homework that I had done on last year’s auction results, and how I obtained my auction values. I also talked about some of my other adjustments made due to the postponing of the MLB season.

Part II of my recap will be different than the typical recap article you tend to see. It will certainly differ from my usual writing style.

In today’s article, I will go through some of the intel that I had gathered on my opponents. I will dictate to you what I was looking for from the other touts and how I picked up on particular strategies during the auction. I will talk about what went right for me at the auction table and what went wrong. Finally, I will give a brief overview on my player selections.

The Touts

Well, I’m not sure that I would call members of the Tout Wars Head-to-Head Points my enemies. However, they most certainly were my opponents … at least for that Sunday afternoon in March. The quote above has appeared in folklore from many cultures, and of course, was one of the great lines of the movie “The Godfather.”

Fantasy baseball is largely about the numbers. If you often read my articles, you likely already know the importance that I place on projections and valuation.

Almost as important … perhaps even more important … is knowing your opponents. It is an advantage to be aware of the types of players that they bid on, how high they press bids, whether they nominate players they want to buy, the typical construct of their fantasy squads, etc.

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Introduction

This year, I again had the great fortune and the amazing honor of being invited to one of the most prestigious fantasy baseball industry leagues – Tout Wars (toutwars.com). It was my second year participating in Tout Wars.

Last year, I was a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league. This year, I was invited to take part in one of the four live auctions – the Tout Wars Head-to-Head Points league. It was originally scheduled to be held live in Midtown Manhattan on Sunday, March 15.

Unfortunately, due to the COVID-19 outbreak, we were unable to hold this auction live. Though the NFBC had chosen to cancel their live auctions, and many of my home leagues agreed to postpone – the Tout Wars board had decided to proceed onward. Rather than postpone – all four remaining Tour Wars leagues competed online, with Fantrax as the provider platform.

Aside from the benefits of the social aspect of a live auction (one of the key reasons we do this in the first place), we lose many of its intangible aspects when moving to the online arena. You can no longer look a league mate in the eye as they bid. It is much harder to pick up on ‘tells’ by simply reading out your computer monitor. The art of using my voice to hypnotize others goes away (yes, that’s right – I said hypnotize). It isn’t the same.

Personally, I have played in many online auction leagues. It was a dynamic that I was used to, and I have previously played on the Fantrax software. My home office setup is quite decent for an online auction. I use two 27-inch monitors, plus a side 15-inch auxiliary monitor. I used one screen to see the auction room. One screen contained my homemade draft software. Displayed on the third monitor was my plan of attack for the day. Technologically, I was primed for the event. Perhaps, this medium of fantasy baseball drafting was even an advantage for me.

You can view the results of our auction on Fantrax here. Full spreadsheet results of all Tout Wars auctions and drafts are compiled here.

For Part I of my Tout Wars auction recap, rather than simply break down my player selections – I wanted to share with you some of my process and preparation. I might comment about one or two of my player selections along the way, but I thought that you – the reader – would benefit more from a discussion of my approach and from my overall observations.

Both in fantasy sports, as well as in real life – the process is always more important than the specific or situational results.

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I wanted to not write too many draft recaps this preseason. I didn’t want draft recaps to simply stand in for analysis. Turns out we might not have baseball until June or July or maybe ever. Draft recaps might be all we have in this pandemic hellscape. (I’m being dramatic, I know. But, also, maybe I’m not!)

I did recap my first-ever Tout Wars draft last year. Honestly, it went poorly. I didn’t click through the link to read what I wrote, but if I try to make it seem like I did well… I promise you, I didn’t. I ended the SiriusXM stream chastising myself for drafting so poorly. It’s true!

I did, however, recover nicely in-season once I finally learned how to use OnRoto and I got a handle on what seemed to me like the optimal roster-building strategy. My year-end roster looked nothing like my drafted roster, and I was able to navigate FAAB effectively enough to wiggle my way into a semi-finals matchup. (I was a benched Kole Calhoun home run away from beating Clay Link and heading to the finals to face Ian Kahn, where he would have annihilated me unceremoniously.)

This year, I’d like to think I fared much better. I actually calculated projecwhatevted points this time! I’m sad we all couldn’t draft in person, but I’m more than happy to draft online at Fantrax in the name of social distancing.

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Well… this all feels sort of pointless now. But if you need a distraction from any coronavirus-induced anxieties, let this be a brief respite.

* * *

You can catch up on the first 10 rounds here and middle 10 rounds here. I’ve beaten to death the term “threading the needle” throughout these posts, but it’s an apt description for what I feel like I’ve had to accomplish with my particular strategy. “Walking a tightrope” is another.

The more time I’ve had to sit with my team, the longer I’ve had to disabuse myself of the notion that my team is any good. I still think it is, at least on the hitting side of things, but the pitching is as weak as it has been my last two seasons — or, if not as weak, at least as shallow. Most likely, I’ll be spending most of my FAAB (free agent acquisition budget) chasing pitching replacements, which is what I’ve done most of the last two years, too. Oh well.

Let’s wrap this sucker up, stream-of-consciousness style.

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We often hear the adage “you can’t win your draft in the first round, but you can lose it.”

No, you can’t.

Even a total flop of a first-round pick doesn’t preclude you from winning your league. It’s just not how baseball drafts work. Leagues are largely won in the middle and late rounds of drafts. We as a fantasy baseball industry probably spend too much time on the first couple rounds when it comes to article and podcast analysis, but then in October we hear stories from champions about how the picks that clicked from the 10th round and later were instrumental in their title runs.

For today’s exercise, I’m going really deep. Let’s take a look at the average draft position (ADP) data from last year’s NFBC Main Event and put together the best team I can using players drafted after pick 300 (21st round or later). Admittedly, this is hardly a perfect exercise. First off, of course having the answer key makes life easier, but there’s also the fact that not all of these guys emerged immediately so even in cases where they were drafted, many were likely cut before they broke out and wound up performing for a different team.

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Last week, I recapped the first 10 rounds of my the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) draft. I’m feeling good about it so far, which is a somewhat predictable feeling to have, since I probably shouldn’t hate my team yet. But it’s more than I can say about last year’s draft, which went poorly. Of course, I’m writing this intro through 14 rounds, and anything can happen in the next six or 16.

If this is your first time hearing about TGFBI, you can click my last post in the first sentence for more information. Ditto, some of my pre-draft planning. Otherwise, here’s my roster through 10 rounds:

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