The Middle Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Gianella

Strategy Section

• 3rd & 4th Rounds
  • Should you continue to avoid [downside] risk in the 3rd and 4th rounds?
  • Is it too early to take a closer in rounds 3 & 4?
•  When should you shift your emphasis from being risk averse to risk indifferent to risk seeking?
  • Health Risk vs. Performance Risk vs. Playing Time Risk
• How to handle position runs mid-draft?
  • Are position runs a factor in pre-draft KDS selections?
• Middle Infield strategy
  • Player pool
  • Which position gets a bigger replacement level / positional scarcity bump – 2B, SS or 3B?

ATC Undervalued Players

• Middle Infielders
  • Luis Arraez 1B/2B
  • Luis Garcia 2B
  • Xavier Edwards SS
  • Jeremy Pena SS
  • Zach Neto SS
  • Bryson Stott 2B
  • Gleyber Torres 2B
  • Tyler Fitzgerald 2B*/SS
  • Brendan Donovan 2B/OF

Injury Update

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The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Frank Stampfl

Strategy Section

• 1st & 2nd Rounds
  • What should you accomplish in the 1st two rounds?
  • Do you need to draft a starting pitcher in the first few rounds of drafts?
  • Overvalued players
    • Should you draft catchers in the first two rounds?
    • Ohtani at 1.1 ?
  • Undervalued players
    • Freddie Freeman’s consistency
  • Players drafted outside the first two rounds, but should be drafted earlier.
  • The Top 3
    • Why Elly De La Cruz should and shouldn’t be considered to be drafted just outside the top 3.
• The ATC Volatility Metrics
• Corner Infield strategy
  • Player pool

ATC Undervalued Players

• Corner Infielders
  • • Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
    • Alec Bohm 3B
    • Yandy Díaz 1B
    • Luis Rengifo 2B/3B
    • Nolan Arenado 3B
    • Andrew Vaughn 1B
    • Michael Busch 1B
    • Ryan McMahon 3B

Injury Update

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The Catcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Erik Halterman

Strategy Section

• Snake Drafts
  • How to generally prepare
  • How has preparation changed over the past five years?
  • Drafting “naked”
  • Drafting early in the season (January) vs. drafting late in the season (March)
  • Create a do not draft list?
  • Draft risky pitchers?
  • Proactive vs. Relative approach
    • ADP Chicken
  • How to use ADP
  • How to handle risk?
    • In the aggregate
    • Per player
      • Risk-adjusted pricing
    • Power drafters (playing in multiple leagues)
    • Binary risks
      • Free agents in mono leagues
• Catcher strategy
  • Player pool
  • The value of catchers
    • Catcher bump

ATC Undervalued Players

• Catchers
  • • Salvador Perez
      • Is Perez worthy of the Hall of Fame?
    • Logan O’Hoppe
    • Gabriel Moreno
    • Austin Wells
    • Luis Campusano

Mailbag

Injury Update

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The Auction Strategy (Part 2) episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Marc Winokur

Auction Strategy Section

• Hitter vs. Pitcher split
  • For valuations
  • For allocations
• Money management in an auction
• In-draft inflation
  • Calculate or feel it?
  • Keeper league inflation
• Endgame
  • How many $1 players should you look to acquire?
  • Is it good to have the hammer?
• Nominations
  • Multi-round plan
  • Nominations are very important
  • Tips
• Bidding
  • Timing, frequency & speed
  • NFBC’s Max Bid button
• Scouting players

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The Auction Strategy (Part 1) episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Marc Winokur

Auction Strategy Section

• Differences between auctions and snake drafts
  • Benefits of auctions
  • Difference in preparation
• Advice for new auction players
• The most important items to keep track of during an auction
• Working with a partner
• How online auctions differ from in-person auctions
• How to construct market values
  • What to do for non-standard formats
• How to construct player values
• How to construct strike prices for buying players

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Reader beware:

A human wrote this article. Some humans’ caffeine levels can fluctuate in predictable patterns and correlate strongly with “time of day” data points. Yet, there’s no telling how many milligrams were present in the author’s typing fingers at the various stages of writing this article. It was an iterative process that took the author much longer than he had originally expected. While a human wrote this article, a machine wrote and generated many sections, namely ChatGPT’s “gpt-4o” model. From here on out, anything written or output by the very friendly and human-helping artificial intelligence (be careful…they’re listening…) will be italicized.

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Arbitrary (ar·bi·trar·y)

1. based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system.

My Ottoneu arbitration strategies have varied over the past few years. I’ve been overly analytical, downloading .csv after .csv, splicing and merging and concatenating until there was more data than I cared to actually do anything with. I wrote last year about measuring salaries against the average and tipping the scales on already overpriced players. Sometimes it can be more fun to simply add a few dollars where it feels right. That’s what I did this year. Here are a few notes and thoughts I recorded as I dished out my dollars Read the rest of this entry »

The Final Two Weeks episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ray Murphy

First Pitch Arizona

League Updates

Strategy Section

• Final Two Weeks of the Season
  • Is there a limit to who you might sit in the final two weeks of the season?
  • How much should you churn your roster?
  • How much should real life MLB team standings / playoff pushes factor into your roster decisions?
  • Should you take a chance on stashing a returning injured player for the final week?
  • What is the bar for dropping injured or underperforming players?
  • How much should playing decisions be based on year to date stats vs. last 30 days stats vs. projected stats?
  • Gaining points vs. defending points
    • What and when should you emphasize each?
  • FAAB
    • How to allocate your FAAB spending for the final two weeks of the season?
  • Multi-position eligible players
    • How important are they in the final weeks of the season?
    • How to best utilize your roster to take account of them

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Takeaways of the 2024 season

Looking ahead to 2025

• Overall #1 pick choices
• How early should you draft Elly De La Cruz?
• Starting pitching in early rounds

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

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The Elias Sports Bureau episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Matt Martingale

LABR League Update

• Recent trade – Ariel gets Josh Bell & Tommy Pham for Harrison Bader and Ryan O’Hearn from Matt

Elias Sports Bureau

• What does Elias do?
• Elias and fantasy sports
• ATC Projections

Strategy Section

• Spring training statistics
  • Predictive value in spring training stats
  • Players who start slow
• Predictive value of spring training manager tendencies

Who’d You Rather?

• C – William Contreras, Willson Contreras, Salvador Perez, Will Smith
• OF – Jarren Duran, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Corbin Carroll, Luis Robert Jr.
• OF – Anthony Santander, Kyle Schwarber, Teoscar Hernandez, Adolis Garcia
• OF – Taylor Ward, Brandon Nimmo, Ian Happ
• OF – Christopher Morel, Giancarlo Stanton, Jorge Soler, Bryan De La Cruz

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

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The Disappearance episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Pierre Camus

NFBC League Update

Strategy Section

• Fantasy Owner Disappearance
  • General Ethics
  • Money Leagues vs. Home Leagues vs. Expert Leagues
  • Fantasy Re-Emergence
  • Bottom teams trading late in the season
• Commissioner responsibility
  • When should a commissioner step in?
  • How should commissioners handle absent owners?
    • Should a commissioner set an absent owner’s lineup?
• How to account in FAAB for inactive owners

Who’d You Rather?

• 1B – Paul Goldschmidt, Alec Bohm, Vinnie Pasquantino
• 2B – Jonathan India, Bryson Stott, Ryan McMahon, Luis Arraez
• SS – CJ Abrams, Ezequiel Tovar, Nico Hoerner, Jackson Merrill
• 3B – Ke’Bryan Hayes, Issac Paredes, Jake Burger, Willi Castro

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

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