Paul Sporer’s 2025 Bold Predictions REVIEW

October… the quiet time for fantasy baseball. Not for everybody, of course… I see y’all already running Draft Champions and Draft 50s over at the NFBC. I’ll be there next month. For the majority of the community, it’s review time and we here at Fangraphs have been running through our Bold Predictions to see how they went. BPs are always fun because they aren’t meant to be picks that have a super high likelihood of coming true, or else they wouldn’t be all that bold. It’s about to exploring the what could feasibly happen if things really line up but it’s far from the most likely outcome.

So even landing a few feels good when checking the over the slate in the October, let’s see how I did:

Seiya Suzuki is a Top 10 OF

Jeez, if you had told me that Suzuki was going to put up 32 HR/103 RBI back in March, I would’ve said this one is a lock. And yet, it’s not only a loss, but a resounding one. He was the 15th OF last year with a 21 HR/73 RBI/74 R/16 SB/.283 AVG season, but fell to 25th because his AVG dropped nearly 40 points to .245 while the SB total tumbled to just 5. It wasn’t a bad season for him, but we’re 0-for-1: .000

Dylan Crews Goes 20 HR/40 SB

Playing just 85 games, you can guess how this one went. He did still have 10 HR/17 SB (~20/34 full season pace) despite his plate skills waning (0.32 BB/K; 0.38 lg avg) and only his bat speed standing out among his power metrics on Savant. It’s an injury washout season as a strained oblique cost him 3 months in the middle of the year and he struggled on both ends of it. I’m not quitting Crews, though. He’ll be just 24 years old next year and the raw skills are there. Price will be a big factor, but he should be a decent bit cheaper than 112 ADP this past season. 0-for-2: .000

Hunter Greene Finishes SP60 or Worse

I will point out that I was right about his HR rate being a fluke at 0.72 HR/9 in 2024. Big deal, though, because the jump to 1.3 just didn’t matter as he did something I wasn’t sure he could do in cutting his walk rate substantially. His 6% mark was easily a career-best after sitting at 9% in his first three seasons. Greene’s persistent health issues were also present this year with just 107.7 IP, but again it just didn’t matter. His season of 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 7 W, and 25% K-BB in those 107.7 innings was enough to finish at SP21 and notch an easy third loss for me. 0-for-3: .000

Ryan Pepiot Finishes SP20 or Better

I was hoping Pepiot could build on his breakthrough 2024 campaign (3.60 ERA/1.15 WHIP/17% K-BB in 130 IP), but instead he essentially just repeated it with almost 40 more innings: 3.86 ERA/1.16 WHIP/16% K-BB in 167.7 IP. It wasn’t even his difficult new home park – Steinbrenner Field – that prevented a jump forward. I pointed out the sharp park change he and other Rays pitchers would be facing in the original article and if you had told me that Pep was going to have a 3.41 ERA/1.12 WHIP at home back then, I’d have said this one’s a lock winner. Instead, a 4.38/1.22 combo on the road – the bulk of the damage coming in division with a pair of duds in both New York and Baltimore – torpedoed his chances at ever bringing this one home. This is one that wins in spirit because if you were encouraged to draft Pepiot due to my interest all spring, you’re certainly not mad about an SP45 return (which actually matches my preseason rank!), but that is not a win in Bold Predictions. 0-for-4: .000

3 Tigers SPs Get Cy Young Votes

I’m fine closing the book on this one before we get to awards season as it’ll be tough to see anyone join should-be winner Tarik Skubal. Casey Mize had a nice All-Star season and I definitely feel good about supporting him (landed at SP50), but even he has no real business on anyone’s ballot. The real apple of my eye for this one was Reese Olson, who I was hoping would have his first full season after some interesting work in 103.7 and 112.3-inning samples in 2023-24. It wasn’t to be as he backslid with just 68.7 IP thanks to a shoulder strain that ended his season after his July 24th start. This is another one where the spirit of backing Olson was no doubt positive – 3.15 ERA/1.21 WHIP was still good enough to finish SP88 in the sub-7o IP output – but that isn’t enough to notch our first dub and frankly, it’s not going to get any better! 0-for-5: .000

Gavin Williams Finishes SP25 or Better

A lesson in patience, Williams likely didn’t end up on his drafted team in many leagues. He took a 5.14 ERA/1.57 WHIP into May which was definitely enough to move on in 10s and probably some 12s. He had some superficial success in May that kept me on the boat in my 15s as the 2.25 ERA and 34% K rate through his first four starts of the month were at least something to work with while you ate the 1.45 WHIP. His 6-walk meltdown against the Dodgers to cap off the month might’ve been the final nail for a lot of those still holding on, but I gave him a pass on it as I really didn’t think he should’ve been started in that spot. From then on, he was a quality high-wire act. The skills still weren’t special with just a 13% K-BB, but a 2.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his final 115 innings were almost enough to cash this one in for me. He finished SP30. So maybe I lied at the end of that last one as this is objectively better but we’re still 0-fer and it truly does not improve from this point. 0-for-6: .000

Gavin Lux Goes 20 HR/20 SB

Lux had such an empty season that not even Jordan Howlett’s manual juicer could get anything from it. In fact, Lux’s 6 HR+SB was the worst among players with at least 500 PA this year and the only other guy under 10 was Jonathan India, who he sort of replaced (it wasn’t a 1-for-1 at the position, but Lux essentially absorbed his PA). The next lowest was 13 by four guys which really shows just how poorly Lux performed in case the raw number itself didn’t drive that home. He was still a league average player overall (102 wRC+) but his value is really limited to deep Draft Champions leagues where even 450 PA of a strong side platoon Band-Aid player (fill-in for injuries here and there) can be intriguing as the rounds flip into the deep-30s. 0-for-7: .000

Isaac Paredes Hits 40 HRs

Another one where I give myself a hearty thumbs up for the process while still eating the fat L for the result thanks in large part to an injury derailment. In fairness, he wasn’t pacing for 40 at the time of the injury so I can’t say that entirely cut him down but he was on a low-30s track before a hamstring cut him down on July 20th, just two days after the All-Star break. He did return for 8 games to cap off the year, but the damage was done. I’m still pro-Paredes in Houston and I’m still rocking a hot goose egg here. 0-for-8: .000

Nathaniel Lowe Steals 20 Bases

This one flopped on a fundamental level and the player level. The big draw for me was the Nationals penchant for running. They led the league in steals with 223 last year including an impossibly surprising 14 from Jesse Winker. This had me thinking that green means go in DC and so someone far more capable at running — still slow and not anything of a base stealer, but Winker had 6 career ATTEMPTS coming into ’24 — and getting full-time burn or close to it as a lefty who has been able to handle southpaws, I saw Lowe being the breakout thief for them this year. Well, the cops came.

They fell to 6th in attempts and 10th in stolen bases and not even a true burner like Jacob Young could get going with an ugly 15-for-26 output. Lowe was successful in his lone attempt and I could’ve forgiven that if he was still hitting at or around his 128 wRC+ clip from 2022-24, but instead it was a career-worst 91 and eventually led to his release. He latched on with Boston and found his form a bit with a 114 mark in 119 PA so the bat isn’t dead, but those 8 SBs from 2021 that also played a big role on this leap of faith will no doubt remain his high watermark. 0-for-9: .000

Shane Smith Leads CWS in Saves

I tried to get cute and if I had played this one straight up, it likely would’ve resulted in the lone winner. Given that he was a last round pick in 15-team, 30-round Main Events, I likely would’ve done something like Top70-75 SP if I had taken a straightforward approach, but I went for something a bit more creative. Honestly, I’m legitimately glad I got this one wrong and that’s not just cope (it’s always cope when you have to say it’s not). The All-Star rookie pitched the whole year in the rotation, notching 29 starts, and beautifully traversed the ups and downs of the six month grind. He started hot to earn that All-Star bid (2.38 ERA), hit the skids in late-June with a 5-start lull (11.29 ERA) that led into an IL stint right after the All-Star break from which he returned with a 3.19 ERA/1.05 WHIP over his final 60 IP. He also had 3 September wins that had to be a welcome surprise for fantasy folks down the stretch because you’re never really expecting a dub when rolling a White Sock.

So it’s a loss and seals the season-long 0-fer, but I certainly don’t feel bad if my interest in Smith, S.Suzuki, Pepiot, Mize, R.Olson, G.Williams, and Paredes led anyone to drafting them because while they missed these longshot predictions, they were still valuable fantasy players. Plus, these are never meant as a draft guide, but rather to put some numbers behind the chatter I’ve had about the guys in Bold Predictions throughout a given spring. I can’t pretend I’m not still a liiiiittle bummed about a hard 0!

0-for-10: .000