The tracker is back, running from now until the end of the season, so we can identify which teams have favorable groups of fixtures to stream for fantasy. At this stage of the fantasy season, identifying these stretches of games that have targetable hitters or pitchers could be the difference. I will link here the first iteration of the tracker that I made through the end of August, with a more comprehensive breakdown, but the chart has a tab for both hitters and pitchers.
In it, Bailey points out that Bennett intentionally throws his fastball up in the zone, using Bennett’s heat map to demonstrate frequency, his 115 Location+ to demonstrate efficacy, and Bailey’s own “Upstairs” metric, describing pitches thrown just above the strike zone, to reiterate the heatmap and emphasize Bennett’s intent relative to other pitchers, as Bennett leads all pitchers on percentage of Upstairs four-seamers this season.
Bailey went on to highlight Bennett’s lackluster four seam fastball in a vacuum, that is elevated by tunnelling with and playing off of his other pitches, particularly his sinker and changeup. All three of these pitches, Bailey points out, have positive run values for the rookie.
But what was most interesting to me was how Bailey concluded the video. He’d already proven Bennett throws with intent, locating his fastball well in relation to his offerings with better stuff to maximize his outcomes. But then he shifted to batted ball outcomes. Bennet’s sinker has elicited a 69% groundball rate and his fourseam a 26.7% IFFB%.
Bailey described himself as having “taken the pop up pill”, comparing infield pop ups to strikeouts in terms of utility to a pitcher. He showed us a list of pitchers with 70+ innings this season and both high GB% and IFFB%. Here’s that list.
Obviously, there’s some aces here and some low ERAs.
Bailey then shows Bennett’s league-leading Launch Angle Sweet Spot rate, which places him atop a list that includes Shohei Ohtani, Trevor McDonald, Janson Junk, and Framber Valdez. Not as impressive as the other list.
The premise seemed logical to me. As Bailey puts it, pitchers with good command throw pitches in locations that get a lot of strikes and a lot of suboptimal contact.
I was left wanting more. I wanted to know if Jake Bennett possesses a skill that historically is repeatable for pitchers. I think we assume we know “ground ball guys.” But is inducing infield pop ups a repeatable skill? And does it impact ERA in the same way a high ground ball rate does? I wanted to know if Bailey had shown why Bennett’s ERA was great this season, and if that “why” was worth turning into a strategy to predict future season ERA for other pitchers.
Putting yourself out there is never easy. To be vulnerable is to be courageous. You are making a bet on your own instincts, your own research, and on your own ability to avoid getting hurt.
But during the heat of courtship, harsh words may slip out. Your true intentions may be less than pure. Or, more likely as a Rotographs reader, your trade partner is the one who is not pure of heart. They may even be, dare I say, cheating on you. Going behind your back and offering up the goods to any manager with more to give.
Such is the game we play.
Heartbreak. Joy. A ring. Regret. There’s no certain outcome at the end of this tug of war we call the love of the game.
With fall “cuffing” season quickly approaching, those of us who did come together and make trades in the summer are now starting to see if we made the right move. Or if it is all starting to come crashing down.
For overthinkers, this is a particularly hard time of year.
And in a game full of overthinkers, I find myself right at home.
This season, I parted ways with Seiya Suzuki at my home league trade deadline, consummating the deal at 11:57pm on deadline night.
My heart raced with the thrill of the deal. But then, clarity crept in. Without the excitement of the chase, I began to realize exactly what I’d done.
This article is going to be most interesting to managers in head-to-head leagues. Adding streaky players that look ready to explode is still valuable for season-long roto and points league managers. But in those weekly matchup leagues, where there are only a handful of weeks left before the playoffs, it really starts to matter.
In this article, I will show you some of this season’s streakiest players, using rolling wOBA and HR totals over six game periods.
The method to my madness was a bit of a back of the napkin calculation, and one I want to refine this offseason to truly identify streaky players over longer samples than three-quarters of a season.
But for now, I have rolling wOBA and HR totals over six game periods for hitters with at least 100 plate appearances this season, which amounted to more than 30,000 such periods. I then took the average rolling wOBA and HR totals for each qualifying hitter and the five best rolling periods, before taking the difference between the peak and average for each.
I’ll show you those tables below, before narrowing in on some of the players off of these lists, and who show up a bit further down, who could make for interesting hot streak adds for the home stretch.
Because at least some of us rostered Brandon Belt in 2018. And those of us who did certainly remember his explosive end of the season. Nine homers in August, nine more in September.
It’s Week 19 of the fantasy baseball season. It’s a sprint now. In redraft leagues, whether it’s a head-to-head or season long format, you want pitchers who are going to pitch, and pitch deep into games.
At the same time, plenty of teams across the majors are winding down their seasons. If a team sold their stars and spare parts, they probably won’t be letting their young arms go deep into starts anymore. And if a team bought, especially if they bought a rental, expect that player to be used.
In this article, I’m going to look at starting pitchers on teams that are in competitive playoff races that I think are either worth trading for or worth adding, focusing on some recently moved arms and other players who could potentially be available in your league. Read the rest of this entry »
Following on from looking at those who have managed to increase the velocity on their four-seamer since the start of the season, it is now time to turn to those losing velocity. Some have not been so fortunate. Whether through wear and tear or potential injuries, these pitchers warrant serious monitoring and potential red flags as we move forward.
With the end of the season in sight, it’s time to kick season-long strategies out of the driver’s seat. Slow and steady may win the race if you’re a tortoise, but in fantasy baseball, it’s either sprint or switch over to football. And who even likes football?
When I say sprint, I mean sprint while throwing any and all things that could weigh you down over your shoulder. Especially in 12-teamers and shallow leagues, this needs to be the mindset. Small sample size holding you back? There’s only a small sample size left! Things are going to be random. It’s getting wiggy.
Hitters have so many days to frustrate you. Owning Gunnar Henderson this season has been like wading into a pool with a freshly made pizza. Like sure, there’s moments you may enjoy, like the pepperoni-and-pineapple sweet 3-5 game with a bomb. But then your hands get wet, you can barely stand, let alone eat your pizza, and Gunnar is in the midst of a 3-43 stretch. Without a steal.
You get the picture.
But today, I’m going to focus on starting pitchers. Relievers are more volatile, and if you’re chasing saves in Roto, best of luck and look to Hogan Harris, I guess? But starting pitchers are truly the kings of the small sample size, especially when the calendar inevitably flips to August.
Moving into the post-All-Star break, the clock really seems to begin to tick as the trade deadline approaches, and it feels like the season begins to really speed up on us. Time is running out for both MLB teams and keeper and dynasty managers deliberating whether to buy or sell. Whatever the situation may be, now, more than any other part of the season, we look to which teams can be aggressive in attacking the schedule in front of them. For this, I introduce the fixture ticker. Built for now until the end of August so you can look to identify targetable matchups in the upcoming weeks.
A little over a month ago, I wrote up a handful of hitters that were underperforming their draft cost, were readily available to pick up in most 12-teamers, and why they were primed to break through.
Looking at underlying numbers from this season and comparing them to last season for struggling players can help identify when a player may be on the cusp of coming on strong after a weak stretch.
Kyle Stowers was one such player. Coming back from injury, Stowers scuffled through mid-June, with an OPS below .700 and a K% near 30%. But from June 12 on, when I published the piece, he has slashed .261/.341/.521 with seven homers and 23 RBI. He had been squaring up the ball in the weeks leading up to this breakthrough. But without the results.
Of course, the same process told me to consider Alec Bohm, who is himself rocking on OPS below .700 since I shouted out his hot run at the end of May and into June. I’m no wizard.
But late in the year, hot stretches are incredibly valuable. I’m sure I don’t need to tell you that, but it bears repeating. Whether it be in head-to-head leagues, where a hot stretch in the late summer can lift you over opponents, or in season long roto leagues where you find yourself lagging in homers, the hot stretch is like a hot pastrami. Undeniably savory. Perfect.
Now let’s look at some hitters, focusing on a selection of players rostered at different rates between CBS and Yahoo. Consider these hitters, particularly those in the top tier, options to replace struggling veteranslike those that Mike Podhorzer wrote up a few days back. And if you are in a shallower league where these hitters are rostered, consider the art of the deal!
