The General Manager episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Steve Phillips, Former New York Mets General Manager

Interview

• How has the General Manager’s job changed since the late 90s?
  • How has the use of analytics changed?
  • Do ballclubs still use any quick simple stats (ERA, wRC+ etc.), or do they use complicated arrays of stats?
• Has the recent free agent signings alligned with new age analytics, or have we gone back to the older style supply/demand economics and marketing?
• Which teams and players have been the winners of winter meetings / free agent signings?
  • Are the Yankees losers of the Winter Meetings (since the team hasn’t improved on paper)
• Which player has more risk for 2023 – Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom?
• Will there be any reprecussions of the Mets going over the highest luxury tax penalty level? Is this good for Major League Baseball?
• Potential free agent contracts for Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto in 2024.
• New Major League Baseball rules
  • Are these good for baseball?
  • What are some effects?
    • Will pitchers change their repitoires?
    • Will / how will infields & outfields start to shift?

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The Pitch Clock Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Andy Andres

Strategy Section

• Large free agent pitcher signings
• Who has more risk – Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom?
• 185+ IP Pitchers
• Do we need to take an ace starting pitcher in drafts?
• Will streaming be a poor in-season strategy in 2023?

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I’m sure everyone has seen this graphic on Baseball Savant but if not, go take a look.

This may be the most trusted but misleading graphic used in (fantasy) baseball analysis. It was all over Twitter today with the Teoscar Hernández trade to show off his greatness. Read the rest of this entry »

Ottoneu arbitration is wrapping up soon (all allocations and votes need to be in by November 14, at 11:59 pm ET), so now is your last chance to make sure you got it right. For some of you, it means being annoyed your league-mates haven’t finished arbitration yet, and posting messages on your league message board begging them to finish up (note: this is me). For some of you, that likely means panicking, realizing you haven’t done it, rushing to your league site, and getting something in. For some it is just one last chance to make some edits and decide if you are happy.

Which group you fall in determines what you should do this weekend or early next week.

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The Beat the Shift Podcast – LIVE from First Pitch Arizona Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Tristan Cockcroft & Derek Carty

2023 Projections

• How will projections handle the new MLB rule changes?
  • Hits due to banning the shift
  • Stolen Bases
  • Balanced Schedule
• Will fantasy players overreact to the changes?
• How did 2022 projections handle the universal DH?

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Strategy Section

• What makes a risky player?
  • Can we determine / quantify player risk?
    • ATC Parameter Risk
• Should we be avoiding risk more in drafts, particularly in the early rounds?
  • Should reliable Freddie Freeman be a top-6 draft pick?
• Should risk be looked at on the (fantasy) team aggregate level, or only on an individual player basis?
  • Mike Podhorzer’s risky LABR team
• Corner Infielders in 2022 – Where was the value?
  • Where will the value be for corner infielders in 2023?

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What was the best possible fantasy combination of infielders (1B, 2B, SS, 3B) this season? That is an easy question to answer if you use the year-to-date settings on the auction calculator and you simply look at the best player at each position. It would look like this:

1B: Paul Goldschmidt, $33.7

2B: Jose Altuve, $25.2

SS: Trea Turner, $32.5

3B: José Ramírez, $31.2

But, if you were in a 12-team roto snake draft and were able to get both José Ramírez and Trea Turner, you likely played in a league full of clowns. J-Ram’s average draft position (NFBC) was 3.2 while Turner’s was 1.2. It’s unlikely any fantasy teams had both of those top players. So, what was the best possible infield within reasonable ADP? Here’s how I tried to answer this question.

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In Part I, I went over the data I used and talked about two strategies – putting on arbitration allocations on players to try to force them into the auction and allocating to pre-breakout potential stars. Today, we’ll look at a couple more topics.

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I recently read The Midrange Theory, by Seth Partnow, which I would highly recommend if you are interested in basketball analytics, but that is not why I mention it. I mention it because his chapter about the NBA draft got me thinking about Ottoneu arbitration and drove me to do some research that turned into this article.

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The End of Season Wrap-Up Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Most memorable moment of the season

Fantasy MVPs

• Drafted Hitters
• Undrafted Hitters
• Drafted Starting Pitchers
• Undrafted Starting Pitchers
• Relief Pitchers

Strategy Section

• Which is more important – the draft, or in-season play?
• Should we be avoiding risk more in drafts, particularly in the early rounds?
  • Should reliable Freddie Freeman types be pushed up in drafts?
  • Jose Ramirez vs. Trea Turner vs. Aaron Judge for 2023 drafts?
• Lessons learned in 2022
  • What was the optimal closer strategy in 2022? Will it change in 2023?
  • What were some waiver wire strategy lessons learned from 2022?
  • Was the market premium for speed justified in 2022?
  • Were catchers worth taking early in drafts? Will they be worth taking early in 2023?
  • Was starting pitching worth buying early in drafts in 2022? Where should we look to purchase pitching in 2023?
• Who are some potential “Spencer Strider” type candidtates for 2023?

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It was a disappointing end to the 2022 season for me as I wrote up in my “What Missed” article. Stepping back, I shouldn’t be complaining with my first five-figure season (over 200% ROI), winning my LABR and TGFBI leagues, and almost the TGFBI overall (screw second). Here are a few things that did work. Read the rest of this entry »