Final 2022 Season Game Boosts

Game boosts? This is baseball, not a video game! It’s the final day of the season today and it’s very possible you play in a daily transaction league with close enough standings that one extra counting stat could be the difference between a prize spot. So let’s try to take advantage of every possible incremental gain we could find. I’ll post a series of buckets in which players might have a slight edge today, which could make him a good pickup as you scrounge for every possible point.

Top 10 HR Park Factor
Cubs at Reds
Twins at White Sox
Diamondbacks at Brewers
Rockies at Dodgers

Salivating over an extra home run? These four parks rank among the top 10 in overall home run park factor, so players on one of these eight teams get a tiny projected home run boost. There are likely numerous players available in your free agent pool to decide between, depending on the depth of your league. Don’t forget to also consider the opposite pitcher. You might still want to avoid Diamondbacks facing Corbin Burnes or Rockies facing Clayton Kershaw.

The sample sizes aren’t huge and there are still many teams who haven’t announced their starter yet as I type this. But here’s a small smattering of names who have performed well against lefties this year and aren’t facing an elite pitcher.

Angels vs Ken Waldichuk

Luis Rengifo has posted a .400 wOBA against lefties this year, including a .266 ISO.

Mariners vs Tyler Alexander

Sam Haggerty has posted an absurd .458 wOBA vs southpaws this year, with both power (.288 ISO) and speed (6 steals). He’s an ideal pickup and likely available in most leagues. Dylan Moore has been a bench bat this year, but has been strong against lefties with a .353 wOBA. If he’s in the starting lineup, he could be a good play if you need steals (12 when a left-hander is on the mound).

Astros vs Bailey Falter

Chas McCormick has posted a .404 wOBA against lefties with a .222 ISO and should be readily available.

Feasting on Weak Pitching
Many scheduled starters either currently own soft skills or are projected for inflated ratios. Even more, some pitchers are significantly worse against opposite-handed hitters. Let’s identify who you might want to stack against certain pitchers.

Cardinals Lefties vs Johan Oviedo

While Oviedo has allowed just a .245 wOBA against lefties this year, it’s smoke and mirrors. His skills are weak, including a crazy 14.3% walk rate allowed and 4.99 xFIP, but a tiny .220 BABIP and 0 homers allowed have suppressed his actual results. You shouldn’t bet on that luck continuing.

Yankees vs Glenn Otto

Otto’s strikeout rate has collapsed this year after a mid-20% rate during last year’s debut over a small sample. He has been poor against both righties and lefties, so stack those Yankees if you can!

Reds Lefties vs Adrian Sampson 샘슨

Sampson has lucked his way into good results this year, especially against lefties who have posted just a .275 wOBA against him. However, he has struck out just 14.3% of left-handed hitters en route to an ugly 4.60 xFIP.

Guardians vs Jon Heasley

The Royals have no one else to give a start to than Heasley and his 15% strikeout rate and 5.33 SIERA? He’s also been a home run machine, allowing 1.73 homers per nine innings!

Royals lefties vs Zach Plesac

Welp, his 2020 performance looks more and more like a complete fluke. He has been especially poor vs lefties this year, striking out just 15.3% of them, en route to a 5.19 xFIP and .361 wOBA.

Mets vs Erick Fedde

It’s still hard for me to understand how a guy with 452 career innings and a 5.26 ERA keeps starting. Give literally anyone else a chance, how much worse can they be?!

Mariners righties vs Tyler Alexander

It’s not just Sam Haggerty who might get in on the fun against Alexander, who has allowed a .349 wOBA and .493 xFIP to right-handed batters over his career, while striking out just 17.4% of them.

Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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CC AFCmember
1 month ago

Haggerty was just placed on the IL. Rest is still good