I’m sure everyone has seen this graphic on Baseball Savant but if not, go take a look.
This may be the most trusted but misleading graphic used in (fantasy) baseball analysis. It was all over Twitter today with the Teoscar Hernández trade to show off his greatness. Read the rest of this entry »
Ottoneu arbitration is wrapping up soon (all allocations and votes need to be in by November 14, at 11:59 pm ET), so now is your last chance to make sure you got it right. For some of you, it means being annoyed your league-mates haven’t finished arbitration yet, and posting messages on your league message board begging them to finish up (note: this is me). For some of you, that likely means panicking, realizing you haven’t done it, rushing to your league site, and getting something in. For some it is just one last chance to make some edits and decide if you are happy.
Which group you fall in determines what you should do this weekend or early next week.
The Beat the Shift Podcast – LIVE from First Pitch Arizona Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guests: Tristan Cockcroft & Derek Carty
2023 Projections
Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
Strategy Section
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What was the best possible fantasy combination of infielders (1B, 2B, SS, 3B) this season? That is an easy question to answer if you use the year-to-date settings on the auction calculator and you simply look at the best player at each position. It would look like this:
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, $33.7
2B: Jose Altuve, $25.2
SS: Trea Turner, $32.5
3B: José Ramírez, $31.2
But, if you were in a 12-team roto snake draft and were able to get both José Ramírez and Trea Turner, you likely played in a league full of clowns. J-Ram’s average draft position (NFBC) was 3.2 while Turner’s was 1.2. It’s unlikely any fantasy teams had both of those top players. So, what was the best possible infield within reasonable ADP? Here’s how I tried to answer this question.
In Part I, I went over the data I used and talked about two strategies – putting on arbitration allocations on players to try to force them into the auction and allocating to pre-breakout potential stars. Today, we’ll look at a couple more topics.
I recently read The Midrange Theory, by Seth Partnow, which I would highly recommend if you are interested in basketball analytics, but that is not why I mention it. I mention it because his chapter about the NBA draft got me thinking about Ottoneu arbitration and drove me to do some research that turned into this article.
The End of Season Wrap-Up Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Ian Kahn
Most memorable moment of the season
Fantasy MVPs
Strategy Section
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It was a disappointing end to the 2022 season for me as I wrote up in my “What Missed” article. Stepping back, I shouldn’t be complaining with my first five-figure season (over 200% ROI), winning my LABR and TGFBI leagues, and almost the TGFBI overall (screw second). Here are a few things that did work. Read the rest of this entry »
It is time to look back on my season to see what worked and what didn’t. I had planned on just doing this Debby Downer article on what didn’t go right but it was depressing so tomorrow there will be an article full of humble brags and self-back pats. For today, it’s time for a beatdown.
Tanner Bell and I shared nine draft-and-hold leagues and had the insane “luck” of drafting last in three of them. We liked Robert’s power-speed combination so we kept picking him there to the tune of five times. That was way too much exposure to a single player.
Tanner was on the BaseballHQ podcast with Patrick Davitt and one of his hitter banes was Robert. I commented on him bashing Robert and here was his response.
Tanner is about as calm as it gets and it is a rarity to see him get that worked up. We had Robert in over half our leagues and constantly battled from behind.
Simply, we had too many resources devoted to a single top-round pick. It was tough at the end of the first to diversify (ended up with Ozzie Albies and Bryce Harper, great) but we needed to limit our exposure to a single star.
A lack of diversification isn’t as much of an issue later in the draft, where players are likely headed to the wire at some point during the season.
The other issue with Robert is that I had blinders on for guys with steals and didn’t look at other options. Here are my rankings from my last draft.
Oh look, I have Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez ranked higher than Robert and I didn’t draft any Judge or Alvarez. None. While Judge and Alvarez did have some injury risk (so did Robert) and were projected as just four-category guys (I know Judge stole some bases), so I was off. Even though I plan on drafting fewer leagues next year (later topic), I need to diversify my top six to 10 picks (I’m not sure how many) hoping for Judge-like breakouts or not having my season riding on one player.
I struggled for power in all my leagues. I have gotten to the point of ignoring Runs and RBI on draft day knowing I can stream them. There was no streaming for home runs this season. For reference, here are my overall percentile standings in NFBC leagues with an overall competition.
Here are the average of the percentile finishes:
Stat: Rank
Runs: 76%
HR: 54%
RBI: 77%
SB: 70%
AVG: 80%
K: 84%
W: 65%
SV: 69%
ERA: 56%
WHIP: 60%
Even with my home runs near 50%, I was able to push my Runs and RBI almost to 80%. If only I had a bit more power. I knew this deficiency was going to be an issue about a month into the season but I just couldn’t correct it. In the Main Event, we quit focusing on it and pushed all in for stolen bases and batting average.
Two issues were the cause: I expected the juiced ball to stay but it disappeared along with many 20 HR hitters (102 in 2021, 71 in 2022). Additionally, I just didn’t add enough power bats with too much of a focus on speed and batting average) and when I did, I missed (see: Jesús Sánchez).
I need to settle on a power metric that doesn’t matter what type of ball major league baseball is using that season.
Over the past few years, I’ve kept adding leagues as the industry invitations and my bankroll have increased. I even took it a step further and agreed to manage a few leagues. It ended up doing 13 draft-and-holds and 17 FAAB leagues. Even typing it out seems like an insane number. It was way too many!
The volume cost me on two fronts. I don’t think I was able to concentrate on each league, especially at the season’s end. For most of the season, I just tried to add as many stats as possible, but when each league and opponent needed to be scrutinized in detail, the time commitment ballooned.
Here are some close calls:
In this league, I missed out on over $7000 in prizes by losing this close batting average race.
In TGFBI, I could have been the overall winner with just one more Win.
In my auction championship with Tanner Bell, we held onto a second-place tie but just a little bit here-or-there would have helped.
In the NFBC Online Championship, I managed two teams that ended up in the top 20. Each Win was worth around 50 points, so picking up one or two over the course of the season would have made a huge difference.
While it was nice to have more horses in the game, I think it cost me in the long run. I’m going to cut back on the number and concentrate on leagues with higher entry fees. Also, I might consider dropping one or two industry leagues. Finally, I’m going to rely on best ball leagues (zero in-season management) to fill my preseason draft itch.
In the Tout Wars auction, I had all the speed I wanted when Myles Straw came up for auction. I wasn’t completely off Straw (even though he fell on his face) because Tout Wars is an on-base league.
I didn’t need a speed source at all. I needed a well-rounded power bat and I was grinding for home runs the entire season.
Auctions, especially in dollar days can be a little chaotic, but I need to cross off any rabbits once I feel I have enough speed.
Game boosts? This is baseball, not a video game! It’s the final day of the season today and it’s very possible you play in a daily transaction league with close enough standings that one extra counting stat could be the difference between a prize spot. So let’s try to take advantage of every possible incremental gain we could find. I’ll post a series of buckets in which players might have a slight edge today, which could make him a good pickup as you scrounge for every possible point.