News broke on Friday that Francisco Lindor would be out seven to nine weeks with a strained calf. The reaction to the injury was swift. In NFBC’s Online Championship before the injury news, he had a 4.8 ADP in ten contests. In the two contests over the weekend, his ADP dropped to 16.5 after Jose Altuve, Javier Baez, Alex Bregman, and Trevor Story. So, is the drop deserved or did they drop him too far or not far enough? I’m going to fully breakdown how much I would change his value in a sample league.

With so many league variations, I need to pick a lane with his value adjustment. I going to take a 15-team roto league using AVG. For this league, I’ll use the Standing Gains Points (formulas in my book) as a shortcut to help determine his value and use couple tools to help speed along the process.

Add in replacement level

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week I explored the catching position for some potential speed contributions as the concentration of SB standings makes it so the extra 4-5 could really make a difference. First base is the other position where SBs are often secondary or even tertiary to the target contributions of power production. Let’s take a deeper look at the position to see where we might find some SBs.

The Known Contributors (sorted by Sprint Speed)

Obviously, we know some of the top end guys can help here while also delivering game-changing power. That’s why they go so early in drafts, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention them:

Cody Bellinger | LAD, 28.9 ft/sec – Belly’s speed is why he has no problem fitting into center field for the Dodgers. He swiped 14 bases last season in 15 attempts and he’s 24-for-28 across his career (86%). He had a predictable sophomore “slump”, but still put up a 120 wRC+ with 25 HR and those aforementioned 14 SBs… a “slump” anyone would gladly take.

Read the rest of this entry »

Speed took off in the 1970s (in multiple ways…). The AL went to 162 games in 1961 and the NL followed suit the next year so looking at things since 1962, we saw a surge in stolen bases around 1973 when they cracked 2,000 for the first time at 2,034. They surged over 3,000 in 1976 and essentially held that floor every year until 2002 save a couple exceptions (2,982 in ’79 and 2,924 in ’00) and the strike years of 1981, 1994, and 1995 (which still almost got there at 2,932). There was a 353-base drop in 2002 to 2,750 and since then only 2011 (3,279) and 2012 (3,229) have been over 3,00. There was another big drop after 2012, going down 536 bases to 2,693 and that has ushered in this current drought of premium speed.

Since 2011, we’ve seen a precipitous drop in 20+ SB players going from 50 that year to just 28 in 2018, which tied 2016 for the lowest in this eight-year period. Interestingly, we actually saw a spike in 30-SB players last year, going from six to 11. Meanwhile, the 40-SB pool has been steadily low since 2014. Here’s a year-by-year since 2011: 8, 6, 8, 4, 3, 5, 3, and 3. One of the biggest issues with the 30-SB guys is that they are all expensive. Of those 11 from 2018, just one has an ADP outside the top 115 and it’s Billy Hamilton, who is already on the rise. He’s seen his ADP jump 20 spots over the winter, up to 152 since January 1st in NFBC leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

Unless you plan on attempting to punt categories at your 2019 draft, at some point, one must acquire stolen bases. If you plan on completely ignoring the SB category – you can stop reading this article now. But for the rest of us, here is a look at where some potential bargains for speed may present itself in drafts.

For these draft value comparisons, I look at:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from December 1, 2018 to present).

Read the rest of this entry »

Have you guys heard of Adalberto Mondesi? No one’s been talking about him the last few months, so I figured it was my duty to discuss him. He’s obviously been surging up early draft boards after a remarkable close to the season. He went 73rd on average in the #2EarlyMocks and then Top 50 in both my AFL draft the PitchersList Mock.

It’s not hard to see why everyone is excited. The 23-year old former prospect had 14 HR and 32 SB in just 75 games and no matter how many times we suggest not taking brilliant numbers like that and extrapolating, we all do it. Even if it’s just to get drunk on the insane numbers for a little bit. Just for the record, his 162-game pace was 31 HR and 70 SB… annnddd now I’m wasted.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I reviewed my stolen base upside guys, after comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer projections in the preseason. Today, I’ll review my downside guys. Let’s see how they performed.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s continue reviewing my Pod vs Steamer series, pitting my preseason Pod Projections against the Steamer forecasts. Today, I’ll recap my stolen base upside picks. I used PA/SB as my ratio to account for any differences in playing time projections. Let’s see how the group performed.

Read the rest of this entry »

With steals becoming more scarce, owners were forced to reach for the few stolen base sources which could carry a team. In 2018, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton were supposed to be two such sources. Both disappointed their owners but the risk of a decline was evident even though their owners, which includes the author, ignored them. The owners were hoping for a stolen base panacea but ended up with burnt pancakes.

Going into the season, our Depth Charts projected Hamilton to have the most stolen bases at 52 and Gordon was third at 46. Both missed badly with Hamilton stealing 34 and Gordon with 30. In my Tout Wars league, 16 steals were the difference between 7th and 2nd in the category.

The reason for their decline didn’t involve their ability to steal a base. Both couldn’t hit enough to get on base and continue leading off. Both had on-base rates under .300 and OPS’s in the low .600’s. By the season’s end, both were deservingly hitting at the bottom of the lineup (Hamilton 106 times, Gordon 34 times). In all fairness, their projected OPS values (.674 and .648) were below the average catcher (.676).

Read the rest of this entry »

At a stolen base attempt every 54.8 plate appearances, hitters are trying for a swipe at the lowest frequency this century. That means it’s more difficult than ever to find steals on free agency to gain points in the category. Luckily, there are a handful of hitters who have attempted a bunch of steals over the last two weeks and aren’t owned in the majority of CBS leagues. Let’s discuss them.

Read the rest of this entry »

I think there are not one, but many, questions because there are not one, but many, ways Adalberto Mondesi and Byron Buxton are similar.

Here’s one answer to one possible question:

who has the best fantasy season in 2019?

— Alex "Oxlade" Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) August 29, 2018

I can’t say I’m surprised, but I’m kind of surprised. I asked this question very deliberately, its design not remotely accidental, the response options dripping with subtext. Mondesi, with his elite speed, decent power for a speedster, and very questionable contact skills, in 2018 is almost a dead ringer for Buxton in 2017. Mondesi doesn’t quite have Buxton’s baggage — he doesn’t carry the weight of expectations of a No. 1 prospect — but he has his own, continuing a familial legacy. But they do have a lot in common, as aforementioned, which can be summarily boiled down to this great quip from our Eric Longenhagen: “wholly untamed physical abilities.”

Read the rest of this entry »