My Biggest Concern with Adalberto Mondesi

Have you guys heard of Adalberto Mondesi? No one’s been talking about him the last few months, so I figured it was my duty to discuss him. He’s obviously been surging up early draft boards after a remarkable close to the season. He went 73rd on average in the #2EarlyMocks and then Top 50 in both my AFL draft the PitchersList Mock.

It’s not hard to see why everyone is excited. The 23-year old former prospect had 14 HR and 32 SB in just 75 games and no matter how many times we suggest not taking brilliant numbers like that and extrapolating, we all do it. Even if it’s just to get drunk on the insane numbers for a little bit. Just for the record, his 162-game pace was 31 HR and 70 SB… annnddd now I’m wasted.

The Steamer projections (and virtually all projection systems) are known for their sober, conservative outlook on players and they gave Mondesi 21 HR and 42 SB in 150 games. Those numbers came with a very modest .252 AVG and .292 OBP, too. But how realistic is it that he can net that many SBs while getting on base at a sub-.300 clip? My biggest issue with getting overly excited about Mondesi’s 75-game sample is that it included a completely unsustainable SB opportunity rate.

Looking at SBO% rates over the last 10 years, Mondesi’s 68% is the 2nd to only Rajai Davis posting a 71% in 2011 when he swiped 34 bases in 338 PA. Only two other seasons cracked 60%: Davis again in 2013 (45 PA in 360 PA) and Billy Hamilton in 2015 (57 in 454) both at 61%. Only one season saw an SBO% over 50% for 500+ PA: Hamilton in 2014 (56 in 611). Hamilton’s 2015 was also the only season in the last decade to net more than 34 SB with a sub-.300 OBP.

Only four others topped 30: Davis’s 2011 (.273 OBP, he also had 4 SB in 5 PR appearances), Dee Gordon twice in 2012 and 2018 (32 with a .280 in ’12, 30 last year with a .288), and Drew Stubbs in 2012 (30 with a .277). There is going to be a burden on Mondesi to run regularly and be really successful to push 40+ SB with a sub-.300 OBP. I don’t worry so much about the success.

He had an 83% success rate in 152 minor league attempts and he’s at 82% in 56 MLB attempts. I do wonder if teams will be key in on stopping him now that he’s a known commodity, but teams also know Davis and Hamilton (and other prominent base stealers) are going all the time and still can’t stop them, so I’m not too worried about that aspect.

Will the Royals stay committed to him if the offense is just anemic, though? They should because he’s 23 and part of their future, but it’s not an out of bounds concern. He’s not going to maintain a 68% SBO over a full season or anything close to it. Steamer gives him a 47% rate to get those 42 SB, which is perfectly fine, but it’s in 597 PA.

One thing Mondesi has over all the other rabbits mentioned throughout this piece is that he offers pop where they are drains on the power category. He probably won’t replicate the .222 ISO and 20% HR/FB we saw in 2018, but even if he just matched his 14 HR spread out over a full season, it’d be a boon to pair with his SB upside. I’m just worried about projecting for 40+ SB when we’re granting that he’s got a terrible plate approach (29% K, 4% BB in 500 MLB PA; 25%, 6% in 2299 MiLB PA) and thus, a godawful AVG/OBP combo.

That said, if Mondesi is more of a mid-teens HR then he’s just Jonathan Villar. In fact, Villar is a popular comp for Mondesi and his availability 4-6 rounds later is why I’ll likely just pass on Mondesi. Villar went .260/.325/.384 with 14 HR and 35 SB in 515 PA. I understand Mondesi’s upside, but Villar has it, too.

We’ve actually seen it when he hit 19 HR with 62 SB in 2016. If I’m drafting a speed demon with some pop as early as Mondesi, why not just take teammate Whit Merrifield and get 40+ points of AVG? Or take Starling Marte, who is less likely to go off for 50+ SB (Mondesi’s upside), but has a much more stable floor?

As I’ve said repeatedly since the buzz really kicked into high gear in September, I love Mondesi and I’m really excited to see him for all of 2019, but it’s all about price in fantasy baseball and his is just too high when reasonable alternatives exist around his current draft slot and even later. I have a keeper share to project my hopes and dreams onto, but I can’t really see getting many draft shares throughout this winter and spring when I’m paying a top 50 pick for something that could go really sideways if he continues to get on base at a sub-.300 clip.

By the way, I just want to thank my friend Nick Pollack for an early Christmas gift. He got me a mechanical keyboard and this is my first piece written using it. I absolutely love it. He’d been recommending one to me for a while and I had used my girlfriend’s a bit here and there, but hadn’t gotten around to scooping one so he nabbed my address yesterday morning and it was here last night (Amazon Prime ftw!). Thanks Nick, you’re the best!