Pod vs Steamer — Stolen Base Upside: A Review

Let’s continue reviewing my Pod vs Steamer series, pitting my preseason Pod Projections against the Steamer forecasts. Today, I’ll recap my stolen base upside picks. I used PA/SB as my ratio to account for any differences in playing time projections. Let’s see how the group performed.

A good showing for Pod!

So Christian Yelich just enjoyed a career year, setting news highs in both OBP and SLG. Typically, you might expect this type of player to slow down his runner game as he transforms into an elite slugger. That wasn’t the case for Yelich. Even though Steamer projected a higher OBP, and Yelich smashed both, he posted his best PA/SB mark since his 2013 debut. For whatever reason, Steamer was anti-Brewers when it came to running. Three members made the upside list and all three hit closer to my forecast.

Lorenzo Cain also posted a career best OBP, which he parlayed into a career high SB total. This despite the fact he played through his age 32 season. It’s not often a 32-year-old sets a new stolen base career high of 30!

Byron Buxton was an absolute disaster, but he still owned elite speed skills. I was rightly pessimistic on his OBP, yet still expected stolen base upside.

I’m always for projecting age-based regression for steals, so it was hard to argue against Steamer’s Jarrod Dyson forecasting, calling for a new PA/SB high, immediately following the 2017 career high he just set. I figured he’d rebound some, especially given the introduction of the humidor, which might motivate the Diamondbacks to run more. Sure enough, he ran significantly more frequently at home than away — an 11.1 PA/SB at home vs a 27.4 PA/SB in away parks.

I’n not sure why Steamer was so down on Mike Trout’s PA/SB rate, as he was still just 26 (holy $hit) and fully rebounded in 2016 and 2017, from a speed perspective. I projected a bit of regression from his 2017, which he delivered, though to a lesser degree than I forecasted. He’s such a good basestealer, why stop?

Oddly, Steamer called for a worse stolen base success rate for Michael Brantley, enough so to result in a rather pessimistic PA/SB. Interestingly, his success rate was good as always, but he just ran far less frequently than normal, giving Steamer their first “win”. I doubt that steal rate is going to rebound.

I was significantly more bullish on Tommy Pham’s OBP, the likely driver of my PA/SB optimism versus Steamer. Turned out, his OBP finished in between our forecasts, a bit closer to mine. But he still badly missed both our PA/SB projections. Although he stole a bag a bit more often in Tampa, it wasn’t enough to offset the letdown while still in St. Louis.

Steamer’s A.J. Pollock PA/SB forecast looked surprisingly bearish, but he ended up posting his highest mark since his first full season in 2013. With all his injuries, it’s hard to get a sense of where he stands, whether from a power perspective, or speed. Part of the downturn was a career worst OBP, as he appears to have sacrificed contact for power. Welcome to the club! Is this the new Pollock or just a one-season blip?

Almost nailed the Ryan Braun PA/SB, as once again Steamer seemed to be too aggressive with its age-related regression. And heck, Braun would have performed even better if he hadn’t posted a career worst OBP!