Archive for Starting Pitchers

Introducing: Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) for Pitchers

Today, I will attempt to develop a simple pitcher metric. My exercise will provide us with a recapitulation of the plate discipline data at our disposal, while at the same time afford us the opportunity to unearth some fascinating pitching tendencies of lesser known hurlers.

To do this, let’s start with the basic ingredients of plate discipline, from the point of view of the pitcher.

We can break down any pitch into these simple binary events:

  1. Was the ball thrown in the strike zone?
  2. Was the ball swung on?
  3. Did the batter make contact with the ball?

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The 10: Unexpected Gems

Each week (on Monday or Tuesday depending on my schedule) I’m going to talk about something from the previous week in a pack of 10. This week we’re only working with four games, but I still found 10 unexpected gems worthy of some attention.

Trevor Williams | PIT at CIN: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 13% SwStr

I’m not going to overreact after the one start, but another gem gives him a 2.02 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his last 18 starts, spanning 102.7 innings. He has just a 12% K-BB rate in that time which fuels the skepticism and most relievers can’t sustain an 87% LOB rate, let alone starters. I’m reluctant to think I got it wrong on Williams just because he picked up where his 2018 left off. Maybe he’s more of a true talent 3.75 ERA than the 4.00-4.20ish level I suggested during his big run.

He gets Cincy at home in his next start, I’d use him for that in most formats where streaming is viable.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 665 – “The Walking Dead: A Main Event Story”

4/1/19

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

  • Main Event & TGFBI bidding

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Velocity & Pitch Mix Changes (Opening Day)

If any stat can be monitored with a small sample, it’s pitch velocity. Fastball velocity stabilized with a sample of ‘1’. Just one fastball is enough to know a pitcher’s velocity going forward. I collected the Opening Day starters’ fastball velocities and compared them to last year’s values. It’s all we can really do at this point in the season.

Additionally, I compared this year’s and last year’s pitch mix. Mainly, I was hoping to find if a starter dumped or added a pitch. I didn’t mention a pitch if its usage didn’t change by  10% points or more.

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2019 Spring Starting Pitcher K% Surgers

Almost exactly seven years ago, I shared a study on the predictive value of pitcher strikeout and walk rates posted during spring training. Though most know that most spring training stats mean nothing (somehow, there are still those who think spring stats like ERA actually have predictive value), spring strikeout and walk rates do improve projections when incorporated. That said, we still have the same size issue to deal with, various levels of competition, and pitchers working on things that makes them not the actual pitcher we know them as. With those caveats out of the way, it’s at least worth being aware of pitchers striking out significantly more than projected to.

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2019 Pod vs Steamer — ERA Downside

Yesterday, I identified and discussed 13 starting pitchers the 2019 Pod Projections forecasted a significantly lower ERA than Steamer. Today, I’ll take on the other group — those the Pod Projections are more bearish on than Steamer in ERA. I’ll only discuss those pitchers you truly care about.

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Will the Dark Knight Rise in Southern California?

Once upon a time, Matt Harvey was good. Awesome, in fact! Then the Mets overused him. Harvey suffered through Tommy John surgery, thoracic outlet syndrome, and just general ineffectiveness before the former draft day darling was essentially forgotten this year. Right now, the erstwhile Dark Knight of Gotham is being drafted outside the top 120 pitchers and top 400 players. That’s for good reason; last year’s 4.94 ERA and 4.57 FIP don’t inspire much confidence. But it also makes the Dark Knight someone who makes a remarkably good sleeper, especially in a traditionally starting pitching class. Harvey might have the most upside of any undrafted pitcher this year – because we know what he can do at his best, and that’s a top-5 pitcher in baseball.

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Is 2019 A LIMA Year?

Consensuses make me nervous. When everybody agrees, there’s usually a way to profit with a contrarian approach. This season features perhaps the most monolithic consensus I’ve seen in the last decade. Ace starting pitchers are the key to life, liberty, the cosmos, and a rockin’ bikini bod. You can’t possibly contend without at least one ace. Multiple aces are preferred. This leads me to ask a question…

Is 2019 a LIMA year?

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2019 Pod vs Steamer — ERA Upside

Let’s continue our comparison of the 2019 Pod Projections (last year’s most accurate non-aggregate forecasting system!) and the Steamer projections. Today, we move on to pitchers, where I’ll compare our ERA projections. First, it’s worth noting that Steamer is far more pessimistic on ERA than Pod is, so there are more upside guys than downside. It’s not a big deal for fantasy baseball though, as value is driven by projected stats versus replacement. So whether the league ERA is projected at 11.00 and Chris Sale is at 9.50 or the league is at 4.50 and Sale is at 3.00, it doesn’t make a difference from a valuation perspective.

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The Marquez Group

When I released my SP rankings yesterday, I was fairly certain that the German Marquez slotting would continue to garner attention. There were questions when I had him 34th back in February and after more research and shuffling, he actually dropped a spot to 35 on the March list. Part of me definitely finds it weird that I have to keep justifying my Marquez ranking while those with him in the Top 25 just skate by unchallenged. How is anyone comfortable ranking someone that high when they must contend with Coors Field for half their games?

Furthermore, are we just completely ignoring Marquez’s career before last summer now? He undoubtedly made improvements, namely the excellent curve and surge in fastball performance. But I’m just not sure that 113 excellent innings is enough to say he’s a completely new pitcher, especially with Coors lingering overhead. Let me be clear about one thing: I think German Marquez is a good pitcher. I don’t want my ranking to be seen as some indictment of him. I just don’t think he’s ready to be an unmitigated fantasy ace.

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