Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

I’m listing them in order of interest.

SCOOP ‘EM

Jordan Lyles (11-8, 4.17 ERA) at CIN | 40%: He’s only been good since shifting over to Milwaukee (2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts) so that probably explains the roster rate, but don’t sleep on him. The Cincy offense is a little chilly, too, toting a .291 wOBA against righties in September.

Jeff Samardzija (11-12, 3.64) v. COL | 43%: I’m surprised his roster rate is this low, but he should be on a roster in most competitive. Check your wire juuust in case.

Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Homer Bailey (30%) at LAA: He meets all the requirements for a good streamer, especially since joining the A’s, with an 8.6 K/9, just a 2.0 BB/9, six Wins, and a 4.21 ERA.

Partial Category Contribution

Rich Hill (39%)/Ross Stripling (39%) at SD: If Stripling starts, I love him in the follower role here. The only red flag may be a limited number of innings.

Dylan Bundy (19%) at TOR: Strikeouts (9.1 K/9) and a possible Win against the Jays. The strikeouts may not be as high since he’s reinventing himself as the season goes on. He’s starting to mix in a sinker and throw his four-seamer less. His strikeouts have gone from 9.5 K/9 in the first half to 8.5 K/9. Over the same time, his HR/9 has dropped from 2.0 to 1.1. The problem is the Orioles defense which has let too many groundballs through and his BABIP has increased from .276 to .339.

Anthony Kay (3%) vs BAL: I guess I’m the most interested in the Baltimore-Toronto game. Kay’s been striking out batters this season (8.4 K/9). He’s keeping the ball on the ground so far in the majors (52%) and has limited the homers. While his ERA is near 6.00, his ERA estimators are around 4.00. He’s a fine option.
Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

I’m listing them in order of interest.

SCOOP ‘EM

Joe Musgrove (10-12, 4.52) v. SEA | 44%: It’s hard not to feel that Musgrove is getting ready for his standard “rug-pull” start given the ups and downs of the season, but I’m still starting him here. He’s got a 3.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his last six starts spanning 34.7 innings, including 34 strikeouts against just six walks. The Mariners have just a .305 wOBA and 26% K rate against righties over the last month.

Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Aaron Civale (43%) vs DET: I don’t believe in the 1.93 ERA with a 4.56 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA but the home matchup (vs Zimmermann) is great.

Tony Gonsolin (0%) vs TB: Golsolin is a similar talent to Civale but Gonsolin’s matchup versus the Rays is tougher.

Dinelson Lamet (20%) at MIL: He’s a must-start even though he’s on the road in Milwaukee.

Zach Eflin (28%) at ATL: This might be the most boring pickup but he has been consistently OK over the course of this season. I just wish he was facing someone besides Atlanta.
Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I discussed the idea of picking up current dominant relievers in your keeper league who could potentially close next year. Cheap closers are gold in mono leagues, especially if they could hold onto the role all season. Now we’ll flip to the guys who could join the starting rotation next season, but aren’t currently. These are all young pitchers who have posted at least a 25% strikeout rate. The idea here is if you’re in a keeper league, you could pick up these pitchers, some of which have little current season value, for cheap and potentially end up with a starting pitcher heading into the season with solid upside.

Read the rest of this entry »

9/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

TOO EARLY MOCK SP ANALYSIS

• First 10 Rounds
• Favorites 150-200
• Favorites 200+
• Smada’s Excellent ADP Board

—

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think!

Approximately 94 minutes of joyous analysis.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

9/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host

Paul runs through the scheduled two-start pitchers and righty/lefty schedule splits of each team for next week highlighting who to start and potential platoon bats who could benefit.

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Back in June, I tried to tackle the age-old question: are foul balls good or bad? I tried to determine the “worth” of a foul ball by grouping plate appearances by their number of foul balls (from zero to four-or-more) and looking at two outcome metrics: strikeout rate (K%) and weighted on-base average (wOBA). Unfortunately, my endeavor turned up mostly duds. There are some interesting nuggets – a pitcher’s wOBA allowed improves by nearly 30 points in two-strike counts if he allows at least one foul ball – but most other splits were meaningless. Similar attempts to quantify the effect of a foul ball on the subsequent pitch were similarly fruitless.

I stepped back from the research to let it breathe. Intuitively, I knew there should be value here – I just wasn’t sure how it would present itself. Then, one day (specifically, June 27), inspiration struck in the form of Bryse Wilson’s third career start, during which he incurred nine swinging strikes but also 20 (twenty!) foul balls on 56 four-seam fastballs, amounting to a 16% swinging strike rate but also an absurd 36% foul ball rate (Foul%). The coincidence of many whiffs and also many fouls struck me as fascinating and extremely relevant to my previous research. It encouraged me to reframe the question at hand:

How does foul ball rate correlate with other measurements of success by pitch type?

Read the rest of this entry »

Since pitcher skills seemingly change more frequently than hitters, it’s more beneficial to analyze them over smaller sample sizes than it is for hitters. Normally, I wouldn’t care much for a hitters skills over just 30 days, but for pitchers, there’s a better chance it represents a change in true talent level. So let’s discuss some of the more interesting names appearing on the first page of the strikeout rate leaderboard over the last 30 days. Obviously, this isn’t going to be all that actionable for this season, but it could help shape projections and player values in 2020.

Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yes

Dinelson Lamet vs CHC (24%): While he’s facing the Darvish-led Cubs, the matchup doesn’t scare me one bit. Lamet has a 11.7 K/9 and an under 4.00 with ERA estimators to match. Maybe the next two pitchers listed here might have a better chance for a win but Lamet has the best overall package.

Read the rest of this entry »