Archive for Starting Pitchers

Pitchers Who Experienced A Change In Velocity

For this fun exercise we are going to look into some pitchers who gained or lost velocity on their fastball. Usually a gain or loss in velocity could lead to a difference in performance. This season is a little tough because the question of the year is, were pitchers able to throw faster because they knew it was a short season? Or vice versa, did some of these pitchers lose their velocity because they didn’t have time to properly build up their arms? Or are they typically slow starters? Unfortunately these are questions that won’t be answered until the 2021 season begins. With that in mind let’s take a gander and these pitchers and what it could mean moving forward.

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2020’s Fantasy Baseball Auction Bargains

Introduction

The key to succeeding in fantasy baseball:

Maximize the value of your accumulated roster.

At the start of a draft, each fantasy owner is handed a set of draft picks. Each owner receives a 1st round selection, a 2nd round selection, a 3rd round selection, and so on. If your league chooses to hold an auction rather than a more traditional serpentine draft – each team is handed $260 at the auction start. Players are then purchased throughout the auction with the use of these finite funds.

The key to gainfully drafting is not to draft a 3rd round player in the 3rd round, or a 9th round player in the 9th round, etc. The key is to draft a 3rd round player in the 10th round, and a 9th round player in the 20th round.

In an auction, if you purchase every player at his projected value, you will have paid $260 of auction dollars for $260 of value. What you will have is an average team. You won’t finish last, but you won’t finish first. Instead, with your $260 – you need to buy some $290 or $300 or $310+ of total value.

The key is to make a “profit” on as many roster spots as you can. The goal is to purchase players at bargain prices.

I have asked this question before – but it is worth asking every now and again. Suppose that you competed in an NFBC fantasy baseball auction back in July this season.

Which player was the better purchase?

Bryce Harper (OF, PHI)

OR

Andrew McCutchen (OF, PHI)

Before opining on the better Philly outfield purchase of 2020, let’s take a look at their final 2020 stat lines:

Player Comparison
Player R HR RBI SB AVG
Bryce Harper 41 13 33 8 .268
Andrew McCutchen 32 10 34 4 .253

On the surface, it seems like a pretty obvious answer. Harper had more HR, SB, R and a better batting average than McCutchen. He had just one fewer RBI.

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Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Decliners — 7/30/20, A Review

Today, I continue reviewing my early season velocity change articles to see how the starting pitchers with the biggest gains and losses versus 2019 ended up performing the rest of the year. I’ll move on to the velocity decliners I posted on July 30, which were velocities as of July 28. Did these pitchers regain their lost velocities over the rest of the season or not?

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Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Surgers – 7/29/20, A Review

On Monday, I reviewed my first starting pitcher velocity surger post. However, since it was so early in the season, not every starter had actually pitched yet. So I posted another one two days later, which I’ll review now.

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Pitcher Valuations: Single Season Projections & pERA Values

After focusing the 2021 prep on hitters for the last couple of weeks, it’s time for pitchers to take center stage. There is no way to hide that the following is mostly a data dump with a small bit of analysis. Welcome to mid-October 2021 draft prep.

Single Season Projections

These projections are about as simple as it gets. It takes a pitcher’s 2020 results and projections the pitcher going forward based just on those stats. With some pitchers completely changing their pitch arsenal, I find these projections are a better evaluation tool than multi-year averages. For a reference, here is the full write up on how they are created.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 858 – Fireside Chat: 2021 SP Rankings

10/13/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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2021 SP DISCUSSION

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Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Decliners — 7/28/20, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed how the starting pitchers that increased their fastball velocities the most after their first start fared over the rest of the season. Today, let’s check in on the velocity decliners. Since the article was typed on July 27, that means it includes velocities through July 26. Did these pitchers rebound off their first start declines?

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Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Surgers – 7/27/20, A Review

Performing backward looking analysis with the intention of using it for forward looking actionable advice is only as good as the success of the advice. So I always make sure to look back on the season and review all the analysis I performed and the advice it drove. We know that fastball velocity is very important for pitchers and that it also stabilizes pretty quickly, meaning we don’t need many pitches to learn valuable information. So early on in the season, I posted several articles highlighting fastball velocity surgers and decliners. Let’s now review the first I posted on July 27, which was after just one start and through July 25. Did these pitchers sustain their newfound velocity levels or were they one game wonders, regressing right back to 2019 marks?

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Pitchers Who Were Hitting Their Stride

With only a two month season, it makes sense to look into pitchers who were gaining momentum in the final month. Of course, taking a small sample isn’t always ideal but perhaps a pitcher started to gain velocity, made a pitch mix change, or were just plain unlucky in the first month. These tangible changes could mean something and could hint at who will carry their success over into 2021.

Here are the top 30 ERA leaders in the last month:

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 856 – Justin Reviews Paul’s SP Ranks

10/02/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

MY SP RANKS

Too high

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