Five Starters to Monitor for 2021
I love shopping in the middle and late rounds for pitching. It’s not that I won’t buy studs, I love doing that, too, but finding gems who greatly overperform their draft slot can be instrumental to winnings leagues. I’ve already started analyzing the pitching pool thanks to Justin’s #TooEarlyMocks and here’s a handful of guys I’ll be eyeing as later pickups, especially in any winter drafts I do as they’re all priced to buy right now.
John Means | Baltimore Orioles
Velocity gains didn’t net early results as he managed just a 10.13 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in first four starts. Excellent changeup from 2019 wasn’t there but he regained the feel and put up a 2.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the final six starts (33 IP). The changeup had a 4.2 pitch value during that run and he maintained the velo boost. The home runs are still concerning with a 2.5 rate in 2020 and 1.6 for his career. If he can start keeping the ball in the yard more often, there’s some low-3.00s ERA potential here especially if the new velo and strikeout rate maintain.
Tyler Mahle | Cincinnati Reds
Thrust into the rotation unexpectedly, Mahle cut his problematic home run rate (1.6 prior to ’20; 1.1 in ’20) en route to a strong 3.59 ERA/1.15 WHIP combo and he returned to the slider and amped up its usage. This resulted in a career-best 30% K rate, aided by a 14% SwStr rate. He also saw his walks jump a bit to 10%, but I wonder if there was less giving in during hitter counts as he realized that re-racking with a new batter was better than laying a hittable pitch in and getting smoked 400+ feet over the wall. He allowed just a .175 AVG in hitter counts, but a .452 OBP thanks to a 34% BB rate. In even and pitcher counts, he allowed a .192/.253/.353 line. The 26-year old should have an opportunity to start again in 2021 and I’d love to see what he can do with a full six months of starts (or close to it… I’m still not convinced we’re getting 162 in 2021 just yet).
JT Brubaker | Pittsburgh Pirates
There wasn’t a lot going on in Pittsburgh this year so you’ll be forgiven for missing the few things that did go well, including Brubaker’s debut. The 26-year old righty made their prospect list and profiled as a useful backend arm. He has three pitches with a velocity level for each, missed bats at an above average clip (23%), and could’ve put up a sub-4.00 ERA if not for a pair of bad starts (12 of 26 ER allowed in 2 bad starts). I’m not saying bad starts don’t count, but rather outlining that there was more good than bad down the stretch (5 starts of 1-2 ER and then the 2 duds). He will be absurdly cheap and I’ll be putting him on my Draft Champions teams and keeping him on the watch list for shallower leagues.
Brady Singer | Kansas City Royals
It was a solid little debut for Singer. He put up a nice 4.06 ERA/1.17 WHIP with a 23% K rate and 9% BB rate in 64.3 innings. His sinker/slider combo held both righties and lefties at bay and while he certainly got the most out of his 10% swinging strike rate, I think he could feasibly improve that, especially if his show-me changeup develops into a true third pitch.
He got just a 40-grade on the pitch when slotting in as KC’s 4th prospect so it’s not surprising that he used it just 5% of the time. That will be key to him taking another step in 2021 and beyond. All told, I was impressed by him making the jump from Double-A to the majors. He can put up another low-4.00s mark with a good WHIP as-is with upside if his two reliable pitches develop and that changeup comes along.
Daniel Ponce de Leon | St. Louis Cardinals
As a hybrid arm the last three years, he’s been pretty good with a 3.78 ERA/1.24 WHIP combo including a 27% K rate in 114.3 innings. He took a 7.82 ERA into September across a whopping five appearances, but then put together a 3.15 ERA in four starts with 28 strikeouts in 20 innings. Interestingly, all four starts were the second leg of a doubleheader and I do wonder if that made the schedule a tick or two easier.
At any rate, I think PdL could gain a full-time starter’s role in 2021 and be a nice late round gamble. He’s always missed bats and been tough to square up (12% SwStr, 6.5 H/9) so if he can trim the 1.3 HR/9, there’s some real upside here, even at age-29.
Why would we not get 162 games in the 2021 season. The timeline this year shouldn’t effect next season like it is in some other sports. 162 normal games next year (unless they reduced the season permanently by a handful of games which wouldn’t be the worst thing).
uhhhh….? take a guess…..
If we don’t get back to normal and avoid this covid crap impacting our lives, including sports, next year then we are just wasting time in our lives. We have dealt with it long enough, time to move on. Zero covid protocols for 2021 seasons.
lol…..I’m not sure that’s how it works.
I don’t think it’s up to people to randomly decide when they’ve ‘dealt with it enough’ and then we can just magically ‘move on.’ I don’t think the virus cares that much if you are fed up.
“I’m sick of this crap, ….I’m going back to normal life..”
“Sir, your house is still on fire!”
“I don’t care,….I’m goin’ back in…I gotta watch muh shows! ”
In fact, it’s exactly this kind of attitude and action that puts the season at risk.
There is no magically move on, its a choice to move on. Choose to go back to work, choose to interact with people normally. Some will continue to get sick, some wont get sick. When you get sick, stay home. If you aren’t sick, live life. Will some get really sick and die? Yes we have seen that. But the rest of the world shouldn’t stop living as a result.
Hey everyone, it looks like Justin Turner reads Fangraphs!
@Lenard- Ha!
Thankfully for me and my family, that’s not a choice you get to make for us. Your post is the literal definition of selfish – “I’m tired of this and willing to accept the risk, so dammit everyone else should, too!” Nope. You’re relatively free to take your risk. MLB and the MLBPA, who feel differently, are not obliged to provide baseball for your bacchanalian enjoyment.
It will not be safe to have significant numbers of fans in the stands.
The risk of infection and cross-contamination among players, and between players and the rest of the world, increases with the number of games played unless the season will be played in a bubble (which it will not).
The owners lose money for games played with no fans or minimal fans.
The players have a right to protect their health and may choose that playing a half-season for half-salary is more likely to complete successfully and be held safely than a full season at full salary.
For all of these reasons, it is highly likely that the 2021 season will be a shorter-than-162-game season. And I’ll be thrilled for whatever the season is. I’d rather have 81-games of baseball than unsafe baseball or no baseball.
You say its selfish, but its not just about me. I want everyone and everything to get back to normal for the benefit of all. Many are suffering in various forms as a result of life not getting back to normal.
Every time you go out and are around people you have some risk of getting sick with one thing or another, thats life. We don’t stay in a bubble because of it.
If you transmit the virus to others because you aren’t taking precautions, and they get harmed or die, are you willing to take legal and fiscal responsibility for your selfish behavior, including jail time? If not, then you want the rights without the responsibility.
Advocating that people should take actions that increase their risk of death is pretty much the opposite of “for the benefit of all”.
….you do realize that it’s often the people that feel perfectly fine that are spreading it, right? How else do you think the President and dozens in the White House got it? You think there was some deathly sick person wandering around the White House halls coughing on people?
This ‘Some will live, some will die” argument is about as lazy as it gets. If it means saving hundreds of thousands of lives, wouldn’t you want to at least take some steps to help prevent that? Wear a mask, don’t gather in large groups, social distance. Is that really asking that much in face of the alternative of letting ~2 million people die without even trying to slow it down?
‘Go back to normal’ prematurely cuz u are fed up and we very well not even start the season.
Bluerum, I hope we get in 162 games as well! I hope everything is normal also! The way you write it sounds like we have a choice on if there are protocols or not. I don’t even know what is correct, and I do not pretend to. But the odds of there being no covid protocols in 2021 seem slim.
I think there is some fatigue with the general public, but if there was a protocol in 2020 and here we are many months later and the rates are actually higher, it would stand to reason that in 2021 the same protocol would be in place. That is why, for me personally in a few of the super early drafts I am doing I am valuing Central pitchers higher, because it stands to reason there can be some similarities this season.
I sure hope this isn’t the case. But if you look at a graph it is trending the wrong way. It is trending the wrong way across most the world again tbh, so it is hard to think it will be eradicated by 2021 season time. I don’t pretend to know what is the right solution in this country, but I would imagine there will be some modifications to 2021 as well.
I agree that it wont be eradicated by that time, but I am saying we have a choice. We can choose to just move on and live life as we were before. At some point there will be better treatments and there will be vaccines, but we can’t just sit around waiting for that. Its not like it is a virus that if you get it means you will die. Some don’t even get sick when they have it. We need to function as a society and live. Do we really want to look back on our lives with an entire lost year or more that was a waste?
We need to function as a society and live.
You have a very different notion of “society” than I do. I would think that functioning as a society means collectively sacrifices for the common good from time to time. Your mileage may, and obviously does, vary.
We have sacrificed, significantly at this point. The common good at this point means getting back to actually functioning in a normal way. Luckily, most of my everyday life is normal where I live. There are some places that are still not and that needs to change.
The amount we have sacrificed isn’t really relevant to the reality of the virus.
What are you so afraid of? Death? I’m more afraid of not living than I am of death. Death will eventually come for all of us, some will have lived and some not so much. I want to be one of those that can I say I lived, accomplished things, and leaves a legacy. Anything less than that is not worth living.
These comments, man… big yikes.
Me? I’m not afraid of death, at any level, except for the fact that dying young unncessarily risks failing to accomplish the things that I want to accomplish on this Earth (including raising good kids, and being a good husband, which are responsibilities that I gladly and willingly accept, and believe require presence and duration at this point in my life).
For me, living my life to the fullest means that the people I love also get to do so for as long as possible so that we can enjoy experiences and impact the world together. If you want to live like a bottle rocket, be my guest, Jim Morrison, but I’ll take the long slow burn and a purposeful and meaningful life of impact. I’m not judging your choices, or anyone else’s, up to the point where someone else’s reckless choices impact my ability to continue to make mine.
Look, I’m not a hard-lockdown sort of person. I believe in evidence-based approaches, reasonable steps to function as normally as possible, and loosening or tightening the reins a bit where the evidence suggests as much. But I also think that “Zero covid protocols for 2021 seasons” – which is where you started this – is horribly reckless, and way beyond the outer boundaries of what the evidence suggests is appropriate right now, or will be appropriate come February when players would traditionally report to camp. Reasonable protocols? Sure. 20% full stands, or something in that order? Maybe. But zero protocols? Forget about it.
I don’t even come close to living life like a bottle rocket. For the most part my life is basic, but there are still things to be done and accomplished. There are people to meet and enjoy. Hell, people need to be able to get together and celebrate those who died this year and never got to have memorials for. I don’t want to die young either, I’m not afraid to die, I expect to live a long life, hopefully not too long, I’ll be miserable when I’m old, happy to move on to paradise at that point.
The goal as we turn the calendar should be to put this behind us, get past the inconveniences in life it has caused and move on.
bluerum….so you say that your town is almost running normally except for a few places….so somehow this is preventing your from creating your ‘legacy’ lol…..sure…ok. Maybe you just lack adaptability? Not that I’d wish this year on anyone, but this has been my most productive year yet. Maybe you just aren’t adaptable enough to create a ‘legacy’. People who build legacies tend to know how to roll with the punches, not throw a tantrum because they have to wear a mask to buy tomatoes.
bluerum….so you admit that life is functioning almost as normal for you and you are upset about the few things that have changed in order to save lives? and you are weighing your personal inconvenience against potentially another million deaths?
Give me Convenience or Give me Death has perhaps never rung truer…
I’m glad most Americans are made of surer stuff than that….
I’m with you, brother. Stand strong, stand proud, and stand tall.
I don’t get why this post is getting so much hate. We just finished a season during the pandemic, and by next spring things are more likely to be better (vaccines rolling out, smaller susceptible population, treatments, etc..) than they are to be worse. Obviously nothing is for sure, but the base case should be 162 games or close to it – maybe they’ll cut it to 150 to build in some slack in case of any outbreaks, but that’s not a huge difference. NFL is in the middle of a full length season as we speak, and it’s going pretty smoothly all things considered.
The only reason we wouldn’t see 162 games or close to it next season is if next spring the situation with the virus is much worse than it is now, and I don’t think that’s a particularly likely eventuality.
More games means more travel, more shuttling between hotels, more interaction with service professionals (food & beverage, etc.). More games – by human nature – also means it’s harder to “enforce” protocols among players; what they were willing to do for 60 games may be a much, much harder bargain to accept for 150-162 games. And this is a team game; each team – and teams they play – is only as strong against COVID as their team’s weakest link in terms of personal behavior. Players with conditions that didn’t opt-out of a 60 game season might opt-out of a 162 game season. There’s so many variables to consider but I’ll be thrilled if we get 120 games, and I expect we’ll get an 80-100 game season at most.
toddpratt….latest has the vaccines rolling out Q3 2021, I’m not sure why people thought there was some predetermined clock running on this thing….hoping for a vaccine fully rolled out within a year when it normally takes a decade was a bit like Kennedy promising to land on the moon by the end of the decade….hardly a sure thing.
And like the moon landing, once we get the vaccine many people will think it’s fake and refuse it.
Having a vaccine, and having a vaccinated population in a country of 350 million people are not the same thing. It will take time to roll out in sufficient numbers.
That being said, since baseball season is in the down season for COVID, and there is now precedent, I do see a decent chance of getting through a season like we did this year. Maybe a 140 game season or something like that to allow for makeup games etc.
Also the whole effectiveness of a vaccine thing.
Ponce de Leon is still a ways down the Cardinals’ depth chart before he gets a full-time rotation spot, though. There’s Flaherty, Kim, and Mikolas. The Cardinals would like to resign Wainwright again or maybe a different outside addition if not him. Gomber and Martinez are likely ahead of him, as well. PdL would then have to compete with Reyes, Woodford, Oviedo, and maybe Liberatore as part of the next tier of starting depth.
If they re-sign Waino, I hear ya w/the main 3, Waino, and C-Mart, but I don’t see PdL being behind any of the others listed. They could leapfrog him, but at present he’s ahead of all of them heading into ’21. I know he’s still only 26, but are we not done w/Reyes as an SP?
Gomber was much better than PdL this season and clearly currently ahead of him on the depth chart. Gomber would’ve been the obvious choice to be the 4th starter had the Cardinals made it further into the playoffs. Meanwhile, Woodford and Oviedo both significantly increased their stock, and Reyes finally managed to stay healthy.
No, we are not done with Reyes as a starting pitcher, as he still hasn’t been given a legitimate chance in the role. With a normal healthy offseason for him and (hopefully) a full schedule next season, he’ll be part the starting competition in Spring Training once again.
Not Martinez. He’s worn out his welcome.
Welp, you go right ahead and draft these five guys next year. I’ll be too busy drafting proven performers with solid skills and winning my league for the fourth year in a row and tenth time in the last fourteen years. Check you later…..
lol, sure.
Disappointing, Paul. Very disappointing. On a number of levels.
First, I play in a unique format league – 8 teams – 15 x 15. Diversification inevitably does well. Teams who come in who have played 5 x 5 leagues forever tend to do well. Easily half finish top 4. They dominate what they dominate, but what they fail, they tend to fail big. Usually they “get it” in year 2 or year 3. I’d never be so pompous as to say we have the top eight players in FBB, but we do average 6-7 guys who know their stuff really well. There’s one opening for 2021. I’ll be glad to invite you to put your money where your mouth is. Game? Let me know. But putting down someone just because you’re not capable of understanding what they’re saying is really, really lame. And weak.
Second, I never cease to be amused by the Fangraphs group-think I see day in and day out. 90% of you act like you know more than everyone else. Odds are, some of you do, in fact. And I’d never diss anyone who feels that way. Rather, I’d encourage you to prove it for a full season. Send me your emails. I’ll be more than glad to send you an invite. I respect your writing and opinion, Paul. All I ask is the same in return. Yeah, it’s great to call a player’s breakout before anyone else. But as a strategy? Sorry, no thanks. I’m not interested in any of these guys till they get their walk rates down. If they ever do. Rule #1 – Until you demonstrate a skill for a minimum of one MLB season, preferably two, you don’t own that skill.
Finally, what has Fangraphs become? It feels like high school to be honest. Yeah, the cool kids are piling on this dude for his opinion, so let’s be cool kids by association and pile on too. You know nothing about me. You know nothing about my experience with and in the game. So why not consider what I’m saying, digest it, and either agree or disagree based on a reasoned, well thought out argument? I know, that’s asking a lot. What are you afraid of? Does my opinion threaten your worldview? Fine. Put your big girl panties on, come on over, and pick up your Mom. I’ve been done with her for two hours now and she won’t leave.
Paul, please try to be the adult in the room and respect that others’ opinions might have validity. We can agree to disagree, but an argument on facts is way more legitimate (and interesting) than saying “WTF do you know?” when you have no idea WTF I know. Or anyone else for that matter.
Imagine being a giant clown in your initial comment, getting wrecked for it, and then furiously penning some lame ass diatribe wherein you play victim and cry foul. This is comically pathetic.
Paul, you just don’t get it, do you? I disagreed with your strategy and assessment. I tried to do so briefly and to the point. You then attempted to be a bully, which is lame and I pointed out where and why I said it was lame. I could care less if I get “wrecked”, because I’m confident enough in what I believe to know that 90% of the folks on here aren’t “wrecking” anyone, least of all me.
Bottom line, Paul – I’m offering you a chance to put up or shut up. I’ll gladly send you a league invite for next year. Just ask and it will be done. And we can go at it for a full season. Maybe you’ll get some articles out of it, and if you’re successful you can rank on my opinions all you want.
Unlike yourself, I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong. And I’m more than willing to give you the opportunity to do so. Prove me “comically pathetic”. If you can, I’ll admit I was wrong and you’ll get the last laugh.
What say you?
It’s actually cute that you’re still trying to take the high road here when you made an “I f’d your mom” joke. Everyone is embarrassed for you and this impossibly pathetic showing that you somehow make worse with each passing post.
Dude… I NEVER said “I f…ed your Mom”. Please… Please… point out where I said that. Yeah…. I didn’t think so.
You fell directly into the trap. Are you too dense to recognize this? YOUR mind insinuated that meaning.
OMG, this is like shooting fish in a barrel! I shouldn’t be having this much fun, except for it’s so damn easy.
Back to nut-cutting time, Paul. Are you willing to accept an invite to my league for 2021? Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is? WILL. YOU. ACCEPT. AN. INVITATION. TO. MY. LEAGUE. THAT. YOU DISSED. AS. BEING. FULL. OF. GIRLS?
Paul… if you decline to accept my wide open invitation with no ifs, ands, or buts, you are the clear loser in this disagreement. Do you not see that? Are you afraid you’re performance won’t measure up??? To paraphrase Joe Biden, “C’mon man!!”
If nothing else, it’ll be fun! Like I said, chronicle our race season-long. You’re the big, famous writer, not me. Any gain will all go to you. Nobody gives a rat’s ass about me. And I’ll admit defeat if it comes to that.
What could be easier, Paul? Time to man up! You’ve made claims, that’s fine. Back ’em up!!!
So what do you say, bro???
WILL. YOU. ACCEPT. AN. INVITATION. TO. MY. LEAGUE. THAT. YOU DISSED. AS. BEING. FULL. OF. GIRLS?
Paul didn’t diss your league as being full of “girls,” Montreal did.
Dude… I NEVER said “I f…ed your Mom”. Please… Please… point out where I said that.
Sigh. Just a couple posts up:
Put your big girl panties on, come on over, and pick up your Mom. I’ve been done with her for two hours now and she won’t leave.
I mean, it pretty much quacks like a duck. But you didn’t use the exact words, so, sure, find your loophole if it’s helpful. Either way, you’re acting like a child. Which is your right; it’s the internet in 2020. Have at it.
And as far as the strategy goes:
First, I play in a unique format league – 8 teams – 15 x 15.
I’ve never played in a 15×15 league so I have no experience with strategy there. But many, many readers here play in 12-15 team leagues, or more, where pitching depth wins championships. Having your eyes on a breakout candidate or two in the “later rounds” as “later pickups,” as Paul clearly mentioned in this first paragraph, is a draft-day must in deeper leagues based on the number of rostered pitchers.
Paul, you just don’t get it, do you? I disagreed with your strategy and assessment. I tried to do so briefly and to the point.
No, you didn’t. You ignored the fact that many people who read this play in much larger leagues and therefore have much different draft-day needs and strategies. You disagreed with Paul’s strategy because it isn’t necessary in your particular league, even though it is for many (most) of the rest of us. And then you were a jerk about it. And then you doubled down on it, because, again, 2020 internet.
I never cease to be amused by the Fangraphs group-think I see day in and day out.
I share that frustration… but your methods of combatting that group-think are wildly ineffective and actually obscure any good points you might have. Help us out and use your experience and prose for good. We’ll all be better off.
Mountain boy…….did you just ask someone to be ‘the adult’ in the room’ literally one sentence after making a “I just got off ur mom” joke?
just trying to clarify.
What the names of the girls in your league ?
OK now this is just as bad. First off, girls aren’t inherently bad at fantasy and pretending so is silly. If the premise of your “joke” is ever that women are inferior, it’s a bad joke and should be fully scrapped. Mountain Boy’s comment is completely clownish and not based in any reality, but two wrongs don’t make a right so let’s not compound things by just being misogynistic.
I have to say, for an article about five fringe starter gambles that might be interesting, the comments are an absolute travesty.
I may not have won a lot of leagues recently, but John Means at least proved to me late this past season that he’s worth a revisit for next year. Thanks for reminding me.
I’m truly glad John Means made this season better for you. Fliers like that are always wonderful. Sonny Gray did the same for me in 2019. I’m not knocking taking a chance on a guy in late July or early August if the goal is to win. I remember a story about a long-gone GM’s negotiation with a star player who wanted a raise. He said “Why should I give you a raise? We finished last with you, we can finish last without you”. You have to take chances if you’re going to win – in real MLB or Fantasy MLB. The only sin is standing still.
My whole point was I would never bet the house pre-season on John Means +4 – I prefer proven performers plus maybe one sleeper whose skills seem to indicate he might be on the edge of a breakout. Sure, unexpected breakouts are fun. We all loved Mark Fidrych, right? All I was saying was, in my opinion, betting your FBB season on guys who have never shown a coherent set of skills is a recipe for disaster. So shoot me.
And yeah, that point was met by derision, name-calling, and attempted bullying, which I will not tolerate from anyone, from the author of the article to the 35 year-old losers living in their parents’ basements.
But I hear what you’re saying, and I apologize to you personally. I’d like more than anything for FG to return to fact-based discussions, where differences of opinion are met with counter-arguments and facts rather than trash-talk.
” I’d like more than anything for FG to return to fact-based discussions, where differences of opinion are met with counter-arguments and facts rather than trash-talk.”
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL this mega chud STILL out here trying to play victim when he opened with this:
“Welp, you go right ahead and draft these five guys next year. I’ll be too busy drafting proven performers with solid skills and winning my league for the fourth year in a row and tenth time in the last fourteen years. Check you later…..”
This is truly pathetic. You’re so sad. 😂😂😂
So, ummm… you play in an 8 team league. Obviously you’re not drafting fringe options when everyone in your league has rosters populated only with all-stars.
And dominating the same league year after year does not necessarily imply skills. One eyed man in the kingdom of the blind and all that… I’ve only won my league twice in 20 years (along with quite a few top-3 finishes). And guess what? I actually enjoy a challenge and having to work for my wins.
Finally, instead of throwing out challenges to other people to join your league, why don’t you take your astounding skills into some of the big money leagues that are out there. I mean if I was as good at fantasy baseball as you seem to think you are, I’d be looking to capitalize on it.