Previous deep starting pitcher profiles.

Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer

Skipped
Roki Sasaki Read the rest of this entry »

Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:

• Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz

Skipped:
Roki Sasaki Read the rest of this entry »

Believe it or not there are already 2025 drafts going on over the NFBC! I have resisted the urge to participate in any just yet, but that doesn’t mean I haven’t been dialed into the early average draft position (ADP) data – make sure to change the dates to 10/01/24 through the current date as it defaults the 2024 data. I was particularly curious what kind of price hikes we’d see on some of the biggest breakout pitchers from the season so I went over to our Player Rater to find my pitchers of interest.

I landed on a group of 6 who were all drafted outside pick-200 while finishing as Top 30 starters. Since it is Draft Champions season (50-round Draft & Hold format), I’m comparing this early ADP to their DC ADP from March 20th-27th which consisted of 21 drafts.

Here’s where they are going through 5 DC drafts and what I think about their chances of a repeat:

Paul Skenes, PIT | 2024 ADP: 283 | 2025 ADP: 11

No surprises here as the 2023 #1 overall pick took the league by storm in mid-May and never looked back. In fact, some boards have him as the #1 starter ahead of Tarik Skubal. He has peaked as high as #5 overall and I believe he will go #1 overall in at least one Main Event next spring, barring any sort of news that would create extra injury concerns. He is undoubtedly the best pitcher on this list and thus there isn’t much else to say. I know some will need more than 133 IP to him this high and while I acknowledge nothing is certain and he could suffer a sophomore slump, there is simply nothing in his profile to suggest there is a high or even moderate likelihood of that. You might get him on the turn or just after as he has a max pick of 18, but if you really want Skenes next year, I suggest a mid-to-late 1st round focus for your KDS.

Read the rest of this entry »

You can feel it in the pit of your stomach. Symptoms of watching a slider hang in the zone from your favorite pitcher include but are not limited to jaw-clenching, toe-curling, fist balling, hot-flashes, “we’ll never make the playoffs” thoughts, and of course, a bubbling sensation in the lower abdomen region. Dylan Cease fans beware, the following GIF may conjure up some of the previously listed symptoms. Read the rest of this entry »

With Mining the News and post-season crowdsourcing done, it’s time to start looking at deep league starting pitchers. With one NFBC draft done, I have some ADP to use. I’ll skip anyone who remains in the playoffs and will return to them once their season is over.

Jesús Luzardo (302 ADP)

After throwing a career-high 178 IP in 2023, the 27-year-old lefty again dealt with injuries (elbow and back) and threw just 66 IP in 12 starts. Even before going on the IL in late April for the elbow injury, he struggled with a 4.5 BB/9 and 6.58 ERA (4.51 xFIP). His command and results improved once off the IL with a 2.0 BB/9 and 3.98 ERA (4.05 xFIP). His fastball velocity dropped from an average of 95.9 mph to 94.5 mph and his strikeout rate from 9.4 K/9 to 6.9 K/9. After those struggles, he went on the IL for a back injury and never pitches again in 2024. Read the rest of this entry »

In late March, just a couple of days before opening day, I shared the names of six starting pitchers and a hitter who I thought the projections would prove wrong. I incorporated various new information we learned over the offseason and during spring training that the forecasting models are unaware of to identify these names. I then commanded you, okay, suggested, that you targets these players, or go the extra buck in auction leagues. Let’s find out how my calls went and these players performed.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I reviewed the most polarizing hitters in NFBC leagues in early March and determined whether the hitter’s ultimately ranked closer to their ADP, minimum pick, or maximum pick. It was pretty ugly, with nine of 13 ranking closer to their maximum pick, two closer to their ADP, and two to their minimum pick. Now let’s flip on over to the most polarizing starting pitchers in those same leagues, in drafts through March 9. Will the bulls for this group of pitchers end up faring better than they did for the hitters? Let’s find out.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the final Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner of the season. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• We’ve made it to the final week of the season. Ottoneu head-to-head leagues should be all wrapped up leaving teams in points leagues to battle it out for the top three spots in their leagues. A reminder that the innings pitched cap is a soft cap, so make sure you plan out when your starters are going next week and try to stack as many of them as you can on the day you think you’ll go over the cap.
• Be on the lookout for teams that re-slot their rotations in preparation for the playoffs or teams who try to line up their starters for a final push into the postseason. Double-check your probables and be ready to switch to a backup plan if things go sideways. I’ve marked a handful of pitchers with an (X) if their start next week lines up for Saturday or Sunday and their team has clinched a playoff berth already. Notably, Zack Wheeler is lined up to start on Saturday, but the Phillies may opt to skip that final start to keep him fresh for the first round of the playoffs.
• It’s a good week to own shares of Rangers or Tigers pitching. They both get some pretty nice matchups and Detroit’s Wild Card chase should keep all of their games relevant through the end of the season.
• On the other hand, it looks like a pretty rough week for the Dodgers and Padres. Los Angeles’s starting rotation is a mess with injuries taking their toll and Bobby Miller getting sent back to Triple-A this week. To make matters worse, they finish the season in Colorado. If they have the division locked up by next weekend, I could see them either skipping Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s start entirely or giving him a very short outing to keep him ready for the first round of the playoffs.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• We’ve reached Championship week in Ottoneu head-to-head leagues. Hopefully, your pitching staff is filled with starters who have favorable matchups and that you have enough pitchers to hit your games started cap.
• It’s a tough week for the Diamondbacks as they travel to Colorado and then to Milwaukee to face the hot hitting Brew Crew. Milwaukee also has a couple of tough matchups next week, hosting the Phillies and the D-Backs. Not that you were rostering any of their pitchers anyway, but it’s a bad week for the Rockies; after hosting Arizona, they head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers.
• Along with that matchup against the Rockies, the Dodgers also get a series in Miami next week and will also finish off a wraparound four-game series against the Braves on Monday. Their pitching staff is pretty chaotic right now and I definitely don’t trust Walker Buehler or Bobby Miller, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an easy start for his two starts and Jack Flaherty should continue to dominate. There’s also a possibility that Tyler Glasnow will be activated off the IL after throwing a bullpen session this week.
• The Royals are the other team with a pair of easier matchups next week and I can wholeheartedly recommend all of their starters except for Alec Marsh.

With just two and half weeks left in the regular season, we’re entering crunch time for teams still vying for a fantasy baseball championship. Hitting your innings caps in Ottoneu leagues is one of the most important ways you can maximize your roster to its fullest extent. Here are four starters who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be useful pickups for the final stretch of the season. I’ve also tried to guess at these pitches potential opponents through the end of the season, provided their teams stay on schedule and no injuries occur. With so few days left to affect your position in the standings, every start can make a difference.

The last time I ran this column, I wrote up Frankie Montas since he had made some improvements to his repertoire since joining the Brewers at the deadline. This time around, I’ll feature the other starter Milwaukee acquired midseason, Aaron Civale. He didn’t have a great start to his stint with the Brew Crew, but he’s been a lot better since August with a 3.58 ERA and a 4.13 FIP over his last seven starts. The key to his turnaround has been the reintroduction of a slider to his pitch mix. That gives him a breaking ball that sits between his cutter and his sweeper, giving batters an even harder time picking up any one of those three pitches. He’s got a couple of tough starts against the Diamondbacks in the near future, but that start in Pittsburgh the final week of the season looks really nice.

I also wrote up Matthew Boyd in this column a few weeks ago and he’s turned in three excellent starts since then. The most encouraging thing is that he’s finally getting whiffs with his breaking balls which has helped him strike out nearly 35% of the batters he’s faced during his last three starts. He’s also got two pretty decent matchups on his schedule before a bit of a risky play against the Astros to finish the season.

Brant Hurter is a little bit of an unorthodox option in Ottoneu. He’s made just one traditional start during his time in the big leagues and has acted as the bulk pitcher behind an opener in his other six appearances. In Ottoneu, you need to slot your pitchers in the role they’re used by their teams which means you need to pay attention to whether or not Detroit is using an opener for Hurter or not. As for Hurter himself, he’s been pretty effective in his bulk role. He throws from a low, three-quarters slot which imparts a ton of horizontal movement to his sinker and sweeper. He also recently developed a changeup which has given him a weapon to use against right-handed batters. If he stays on schedule, he’s got two risky matchups against the Orioles and Royals before an easier outing against the Rays.

Here’s another stretch of a recommendation. Jakob Junis was picked up by the Reds in the Frankie Montas trade as a throw in — Joey Wiemer was the real target in that deal — and has mostly pitched in short stints out of the bullpen this year. Injuries in Cincinnati’s starting rotation have forced them to use him in longer stints recently. He completed five innings in his last start against the Mets and has only allowed a single run in his previous three outings. He’s enjoyed some success in the past thanks to his elite slider, but a litany of injuries have sapped him of much of his effectiveness. Two of his final outings will come away from Great American Ballpark, which should be a great benefit to him. You can probably treat him as a dart throw, but if you’re really desperate for innings, he’s an option that won’t cost much.