Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.

Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

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Yesterday, I discussed seven starting pitchers whose SIERA marks improved the most in May versus April. Those improvements were driven by underlying skills surges — some sort of combination of a higher strikeout rate, lower walk rate, and/or more optimal batted ball distribution. Let’s now flip to the pitchers whose skills declined the most, leading to the largest increases in SIERA from April to May.

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The Miami Marlins have become a starting pitcher haven as their three studs – Pablo López, Sandy Alcantara, and Sixto Sánchez – were heavily targeted during draft season while Trevor Rogers was a popular sleeper pick. Sanchez has been derailed by a shoulder injury, but Rogers has greatly exceeded expectations and ensured a trio of beasts atop their rotation.

And now, a new challenger has emerged!

Cody Poteet is making a case to be included with the others as all-formats studs, though we definitely need to take a closer look before anointing him to the level of Lopez-Alcantara-Rogers or even Sanchez (but he was shutdown for discomfort after a 20-pitch bullpen on May 28th). Even with a rough start last time out (4.3 IP/5 ER), Poteet still has a 2.95 ERA in 21.3 IP which tells you how insane he was in the first three starts – 1.06 ERA in 17 IP.

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We know that pitchers’ skill levels could change quickly, so it’s important to pay attention. A pitcher could suddenly gain/lose velocity, alter his pitch mix, adjust his mechanics, etc, and suddenly become a new version of himself. So let’s dive into the starting pitchers who improved their SIERA marks most from April to May, driven by a significant improvement in skill metrics.

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Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.

Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Read the rest of this entry »

With some insane strikeout rates during his short minor league career, all backed by mid-to-upper teen SwStk% marks and even an absurd 21.5% mark at Double-A in 2019, I have been excited about Tarik Skubal ever since he debuted last year. That performance was quite mixed, as he brought his strikeout stuff, punching out 27.6% of opposing batters, but also allowing a crazy 54.2% FB% rate, which is dangerous in our homer-happy times. Since he allowed an inflated 20% HR/FB rate, it resulted in a sky-high 2.53 HR/9 mark. It’s no wonder he sported an ERA near 6.00! Of course, his 4.12 SIERA suggested better days ahead, but all those fly balls are scary, nonetheless.

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Yesterday, I used the Statcast Home Runs Leaderboard to identify and discuss the starting pitchers who have allowed more home runs than expected according to Statcast’s calculation. Today, let’s flip to the starting pitchers who have allowed fewer home runs than expected. Are they any sell highs among this group? Let’s find out.

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Earlier this month, I reviewed the hitters who had most underperformed and overperformed their Statcast xHRs. But Statcast doesn’t only calculate xHRs for hitters, it does so for pitchers as well. So let’s review the starting pitchers that have allowed at least two more home runs than Statcast has calculated that they should have been expected to allow.

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5/25/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Alek Manoah coming up (8:05)
• Jesús Luzardo could return as RP (20:25)
• Joneshwy hurt! (25:00)
• Keston Hiura returns (28:52)
• Carson Kelly returns to play thru fracture (31:31)

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Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.

Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Read the rest of this entry »