DFS Pitching Preview: August 13, 2021

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Tonight, we have a full slate with a lot of options and at 6:00 a.m., I’m in favor of a robust pitching pool and a condensed pool of diversified stacks for hitters. Because, well, we can’t play everyone, and I rarely favor balance over taking a stand. Currently, this is my pitcher pool. We’ll go through the three tiers of these pitchers and briefly sum up why I eliminated others in the end.

Normally, I cite ownership data, but it’s too early in the morning to have it, so be sure to check it when making final decisions.

TIER ONE: ACES — Wheeler and Ray

Zack Wheeler is the ace of the slate. He’s the best pitcher, throwing a Cy Young Award type of season. The Reds are a powerful bunch and are the second-worst matchup in this pool, but Wheeler is that dominant to project in the top-two or three on the slate.

First off, Wheeler is a different pitcher this season. Always, a lightning velocity guy, his pitches have started to move in 2021. With it has come 10.44 K/9, yet only allowing 1.96 BB/9 and 0.58 HR/9 on a microscopic 4.5% barrel rate. To generate this massive strikeout boost without losing control or power prevention is a feat of wonders. What Wheeler’s doing in a year of inconsistent pitching from aces is really special and worthy of the price tag and maybe the highest projection on the slate.

That the Reds can strike out a good bit and are so home run-dependent plays right into Wheeler’s strengths, as he’s a big strikeout pitcher who’s giving up relatively no power.

What puts Wheeler over the top in my projection model — and probably THE BAT — is that Wheeler is averaging around 6.2 innings per start with 15 starts of at least seven innings. We get fantasy points for outs and more outs equal more strikeout opportunities.

While we’re on the topic of strikeouts, Robbie Ray has seen his K/9 go down this year, but it’s still 10.98. His 3.38 SIERA has become elite, thanks to cutting his BB/9 down to 2.49 and his HR/9 down to 1.59. Frankly, he’s allowed fewer home runs; and with fewer walks, there are fewer men on base when they hit the clockwork dinger off of him. And almost all the runs he allows are via the long ball.

Ray’s low-key been one of the best pitchers in the league this season and draws a roster with a collective 26.3% strikeout rate and sub-.300 wOBA.

This is a nut spot for Ray and Vegas agrees, implying the Mariners’ 3.66 run total is in line with the Reds’ 3.65. A nut spot for Ray doesn’t look like 12 strikeouts in seven innings, so much as 14 or 15 strikeouts in seven innings. His upside isn’t the highest on the slate because Wheeler is that damn good, but Wheeler can blow up as much as the next guy.

Ray’s ceiling is on par with Wheeler’s, so they can both pitch great. Ray might have the “safer floor” (if there isn’t such a thing) because of his matchup. If Wheeler “blows up” for four or five runs, we gain a ton of leverage over Wheeler’s high ownership.

That said, Ray should have high ownership, too.

We shouldn’t fade Wheeler or Ray. We should play both at high exposure. We just need to have leverage in our hitters and/or (depending on the size of the field) our other starting pitcher.

TIER TWO: STRONG PIVOTS — Morton and Urias

Charlie Morton and his old man game are still generating a ton of strikeouts and he gets a fantastic matchup against the Nationals. After the trades, the Nationals’ wRC+ has plummeted to the Pirates level and the strikeout rate has inflated past the Rockies level. Nationals Park isn’t the best ballpark, but it’s generally neutral with a 103 home run factor that’s actually lower the 108 in Seattle. And, hell, why are we even talking about Nationals power?

Morton the best SP2, but he’s really pricey. Adequately priced. Just hard to fit in with Wheeler or Ray on DraftKings. On FanDuel, my pool might be a simple 45% Wheeler, 45% Ray, and 10% Morton; or 45-40-15, I’m that high on these three over the rest. That said, on DK, we can spend up to be contrarian with a really strong projection in Julio Urias.

Urias is just a notch below those three, but no one’s gonna play him at that stupid price. Urias is another guy who’s taken a lep in his own way this season. Before this season, he’d never pitched seven-or-more innings in a game. In 2021, he’s done it six times. He’s never had sub-2.00 BB/9; this season, he’s only giving up 1.87. As a starter, his xERA has never been under 3.50; this season, it’s 3.49.

There’s an argument that he’s on par with Morton, ignoring salary — and it’s hard to ignore the salary. Paying up for him could be a great contrarian play.

In 100 lineups, will I — personally — have any Urias? Probably not. But in 150, we can slide in 5-to-10% exposure. The matchup sucks, but the Mets can wet the bed against anyone in a great pitchers’ park in Citi Field.

We can afford Urias with any of these three, so he’s a good option for lineups that include some chalkier hitting.

TIER THREE: STORNG SP2s — Alzolay, Luzardo, and DeSclafani

The arguments for Adbert Alzolay and Jesus Luzardo are simple: they’re big strikeout pitchers facing each other’s piece of crap high-strikeout teams in Marlins Park — one of the best pitchers’ parks in MLB.

They’re equally priced cheaply on both sites, so we can basically just wait for ownership to decide which one on whom to go heavier. If ownership is near equal, we can split the difference. In single-entry, we can flip a coin.

Alzolay has more baked-in strikeouts, both have control issues, both have power prevention issues. Luzardo has a little worse control, Alzolay has a lot worse power prevention. But we don’t really have to factor in the power so much in this ballpark with these two flaccid lineups.

Anthony DeSclafani is an interesting pivot if both of these guys carry a ton of ownership. He’s unspectacularly fine in every way and draws a really good strikeout matchup. The Rockies are probably the best run prevention spot on the slate and Vegas agrees, giving them only a 3.00 implied run total. This is all a strong boost to DeSclafani’s mediocrity. He isn’t free, so Alzolay and Luzardo reserve that bump, also carrying better matchups, but DeSclafani is superstrong on this slate.

The great part about this tier is that we can feasibly play two of these three on DraftKings and play whoever we want as bats because the combo should be low-owned. A way to optimize lineups that don’t spend up in both pitcher slots is to basically cap the cumulative pitcher salary in the build rules at, say, $18.5k.

WHY NOT SO-AND-SO?

The rest of the pitchers on this slate aren’t bums. They just don’t check the boxes like the ones I mentioned.

Shane McClanahan is a very, very good pitcher, but his 8.9% barrel rate suggests his 1.18 HR/9 can go up. The Twins are bad — real bad — right now, but there’s still a ton of power in their lineup. And trusting a Rays pitcher with so many innings to compile feels rough on this slate.

Tylor Megill is also a very, very good pitcher, but I have a rule about starting pitchers against the Dodgers. I don’t do it on full slates.

Tyler Mahle is the hardest pitcher to ignore because his strikeout upside is huge. But this is a bad strikeout matchup and Citizens Bank is a home run ballpark. Mahle’s Achilles’ heel being home runs to left-handed hitting and control has me staying away from attacking Bryce Harper, Brad Miller, and patient right-handed hitting.

Jack Flaherty coming off the IL is tough because the Royals can’t hit right-handed pitching. He should be great per inning because Jack is Jack, but I question the pitch count.

Patrick Sandoval and Austin Gomber are fine pitchers. But they’re not matchup-transcendent. Facing the Astros and Giants is just too steep a hill to climb.

The same goes for Dane Dunning.

Mike Minor is another really good pitcher, but he struggles with power prevention to right-handed hitters and the Cardinals have a lot of power from the right side.

Zack Greinke is still really good in real life, but the strikeouts aren’t there for fantasy. Hell-not for $10k.

Tyler Alexander is a gas can.

Nick Pivetta isn’t a gas can anymore, but with so much strong pitching, we have to attack somewhere with bats. I’d rather attack Pivetta’s weaknesses tonight than fish for his strikeouts. It’s easier to attack bad control and power prevention than pitch through it.

Zach Plesac gets the results, but his 10.2% barrel rate, coupled with only 7.15 K/9 is too dangerous for little upside.

Michael Pineda has to face the Rays, who carry a 113 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. We can attack the Rays’ 25.2% strikeout rate, but we need the baked-in strikeouts to do it. Pineda only has 7.84 K/9.

Brett Anderson is a gimmick.

Cole Irvin is a very good real-life pitcher. Excellent control and power prevention and gets to face the Rangers’ 78 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. But their cumulative strikeout rate goes down to 23.0% after the trade deadline and Irvin has a very low 6.58 K/9.

Chris Flexen is like a worse Cole Irvin and has to face the Blue Jays.

Madison Bumgarner isn’t a gas can yet, but he’s getting there and has to face the Padres. He’s worse than Pivetta, facing a better team than Pivetta.

Spenser Watkins has 6.19 K/9 and a 9.8% barrel rate.

Mitch Keller has 5.81 BB/9 and a 9.9% barrel rate.

I’m not playing them, as of right now, but we can totally play McClanahan and Mahle for the strikeout upside. The rest are getting totally ignored for these reasons.

Stats cited are since 2020 unless otherwise noted. Park factors via EV Analytics.