With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.
For this series, I want to focus on pitchers going after pick 300 in the NFBC ADP. It’s just some more grinding away.
Starting and Relievers, Part 1 & 2($$):
Deep League Starting Pitchers
Those who have been smart enough to pick up a copy of the 2021 Baseball HQ Forecaster (and likely posted a picture of it to their Twitter) have already read through the “Other Diamonds” portion of the text. It’s my favorite part. In it, there is a section called Paradoxes and Conundrums and it states that a player’s year to year improvements can be labeled as, “a point in a growth trend, an isolated outlier or a complete anomaly…” I loved that line when I read it. But, so much strange happened in 2020 and I think it should have some say. In this post, I’ll go over three pitchers who increased their K% from 2020 to 2021 but whose gains might be skewed by the 2020 season. Two of these pitchers really just rose back up to where they were in 2019. An increase in K% is wonderful but is it a trend, an outlier, or, to incorporate my own twist, to be expected?
1/4/22
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IN FOCUS: SP Ranking Debates Pt. 1
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With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.
For this series, I want to focus on pitchers going after pick 300 in the NFBC ADP. While I’ve moved well past pick 300, three names just dropped below after 300 so I will go back to examine them before moving further down the list.
Starting and Relievers, Part 1 & 2($$):
Deep League Starting Pitchers
Almost done with the first set of rankings as I still have OF and RP coming after the SPs today. My rankings with the individual comments will come after the new year, but these will lay the groundwork and show you where I’m at to start. These are for 5×5 15-teamers with a 20-game eligibility threshold.
Let’s discuss in the comments!
Here is the first run of my top-150 starting pitcher rankings for 2022. I create these by turning my personal projections into dollar values and using those, along with non-projection factors, to rank accordingly.
These will change, as my projections do, over the course of the offseason, with many being driven by adjustments in playing time projections more so than changes in talent rates. ADP information is taken from NFBC, previous values are calculated with FanGraphs auction calculator. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, I reviewed the pitchers who had most underperformed their Statcast xHR totals through May 24. Today, let’s now review the pitchers who had most overperformed their xHR totals, meaning they allowed fewer home runs than Statcast calculated that they “should have”. Did these pitchers allow a higher HR/FB rate over the rest of the season? Let’s find out.
We’re finally winding down the in-season metric reviews, and today, we return to Statcast’s xHR calculation, but this time for pitchers. So we’ll be reviewing the pitchers that had allowed significantly more home runs than expected according to Statcast through May 24 and find out how each performed over the rest of the season. Like I did for my hitter review, this is essentially comparing HR/FB rates through the first two months with the rest of the season, since actual fly balls are used in the calculation and Statcast is calculating how many of those should have left the park versus what actually did. Let’s find out if these pitchers did enjoy major HR/FB rate improvement over the rest of the way.