Just as important as monitoring fastball velocities for spikes to identify potential breakouts, velocity declines might hint at potential injury and/or a drop in performance. So let’s now review the six pitchers who experienced early season velocity declines versus 2021 and find out if their velocities rebounded.
I am almost all the way through my pitching projections and as I start to compare my projections versus ADP I am noticing guys that I think are nice values or guys that are extremely overrated early in draft season. Here are a few of the starting pitchers I have ranked well above where they are going versus other starters in terms of NFBC draft champions ADP.
We don’t need a post telling us that Spencer Strider is a really good pitcher, but there might be a need for one that he’s already one of the greatest in the game. And his strengths play to everything we want in fantasy.
Shohei Ohtani tops the list of pitchers for obvious reasons, but the next nine or so are more jumbled than we might think. Taking a look at where Strider ranks among all pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched tells an important story:
Let’s continue reviewing how the first start fastball velocity surgers performed over the rest of the season. Did they maintain their velocity spikes and post a higher strikeout rate or did their gains fade?
Early in the season when we have a limited sample size to work with, I like to investigate those metrics that stabilize the quickest. Fastball velocity is one of those metrics. Since velocity is highly correlated with strikeout rate, a spike in velocity might hint at a strikeout rate surge, and perhaps a breakout. I originally identified six starting pitchers that enjoyed a velocity bump in their first start versus their 2021 marks. Let’s see if they were able to maintain those increases over the rest of the season.
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:
Kyle Bradish (364 ADP)
The 26-year-old righty showed some positive signs of last season with an 8.5 K/9 and a 4.01 xFIP. He improved in the second half (.396 BABIP to .253) when his ERA dropped from 7.38 to 3.28 and his WHIP from 1.77 to 1.16. His core talent didn’t change with his K%-BB% dropping from 13.2% to 12.5% but his ground ball rate going up from 42% to 48%. Very bland profile.
With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the FanGraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 50 starting pitchers according to Steamer’s projections. Read the rest of this entry »
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:
David Peterson (364 ADP)
The 27-year-old lefty has a ton going for him. A 94-mph fastball. His ERA and ERA estimators were all under 4.00 last season. He had a 10.7 K/9 which was 14th best among all starters with at least 100 IP. He mixed up his pitches by throwing four of them over 12% of the time. His slider is his borderline elite with a 25% SwStr%. He gets a ton of sink on his pitches and had a 49% GB% leading to a 0.9 HR/9.
The only item keeping him from being one of the elite arms in the game is a lack of control.
Let’s finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that resulted in an ugly 5.68 ERA, he did manage to post a superb 14.1% SwStk%, giving us hope that he would eventually break out thanks to a strikeout rate surge. Let’s find out what happened.
I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:
Garrett Whitlock (300 ADP)
With the recent news that the 26-year-old righty will be in the Red Sox rotation, I decided to take a look since his ADP is just at 300. Read the rest of this entry »
