In the coming weeks, we’ll be covering each team’s potential depth charts in an effort to shine a spotlight on the interesting playing time battles that will be waged this spring. Obviously none of these depth charts are set in stone — rather they should function to focus your attention in the right places to find cheap fantasy value.

This week, we begin a team-by-team look at depth charts in the infield, outfield, starting rotation and bullpen, and we’ll be highlighting position battles and any other interesting stories. We start with the National League West division and today I will be analyzing the starting rotation in Arizona. The top four are pretty much set in stone, with Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley and Brandon McCarthy slotted in. That last spot, however, is very much up for grabs and is worth monitoring.

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Trevor Cahill has come a long way in four seasons. After a questionable performance during his rookie year, Cahill has steadily improved over his career. His WAR reflects this too, as it’s risen from 0.6 to 3.4 over the last four seasons. A decent chunk of that improvement can be tied to Cahill’s strikeout rate, which has also steadily risen over his career. While Cahill has been around for what seems like a long time, he’s still young, not turning 25 until March. Because of that, it’s still plausible to think there’s a chance for Cahill to get even better.

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Right-hander Brandon Morrow has been a fantasy sleeper since transitioning to the starting rotation full-time in 2010. He’s always been a guy with electric stuff, huge strikeout rates and solid FIPs/SIERAs — but his ERA has never seemingly lived up to the billing due to low strand rates and poor command. For many owners, he became the quintessential fantasy tease the past few years: a guy with enormous potential who always disappointed in the end.

As they say…

Fool me once — 4.49 ERA in 2010 — shame on you.
Fool me twice — 4.72 ERA in 2011 — shame on me.

Fool me three times … well, that wasn’t going to happen for many owners. Consecutive years of disappointment proved too much. In fact, several people I know blacklisted Morrow and simply refused to draft him for the 2012 season.

However, those fantasy owners who drafted the right-hander last year and trusted Morrow would finally deliver on his potential were rewarded. He compiled a 2.96 ERA, cut his walk rate to a career-best 2.96 BB/9, and posted the tenth-best WHIP (1.11) among all starters who threw at least 100 innings. Injuries held him back from a top-tier fantasy season, but the message came through loud and clear: Brandon Morrow has finally arrived.

But perhaps that was the wrong message to hear.

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They say adversity creates opportunity, whoever “they” are. But there’s likely no group that appreciates that quite as much as fantasy baseball mavens. With Chris Carpenter apparently headed for the disabled list, potentially aeternum, there’s an obvious trickle down effect on the St. Louis Cardinals rotation. The immediate beneficiaries are likely to be some combination of Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, and/or Shelby Miller.

What we know is the Cardinals still have Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia. What we don’t know is how healthy Garcia is after having his ailing shoulder derail his ability to pitch in the playoffs this past season. But uncertainty about Garcia only further cements Lance Lynn in the rotation. Lynn, as you’ll recall, was bounced from rotation to bullpen after he started to get shelled in August. It wasn’t entirely clear if they wanted to use Lynn as a potent setup man for Jason Motte or if they planned for him to start games. With Carpenter down, they probably get their answer whether they wanted it or not.

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Monday’s surprising Oakland/Houston trade has generated a lot of buzz in baseball circles. While most of the discussion centered around Jed Lowrie and Chris Carter, one interesting name headed out of the Bay Area is Brad Peacock, former Nationals blue-chipper who was moved to Oakland last offseason in the Gio Gonzalez deal. Many may remember there was a fair amount of sleeper buzz last spring surrounding Washington’s former number one prospect, even after he was slated to start the season in Triple-A. Unfortunately, he just never seemed to put it together. Peacock, who seemed to be a candidate to be the first recall after the Athletics broke camp, eventually struggled to a 6.01 ERA for the Sacramento River Cats, never getting the call to make the trip short trip west down I-80.

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In the two drafts the Rotographs staff has done so far this winter, James McDonald hasn’t exactly been a hot commodity. In the snake draft, he was skipped entirely and he hardly fared better in the auction, where he went for just a dollar. Mike Minor, on the other hand, came off the board in the 15th round in the snake and was one of the intriguing $9 pitchers from the auction. Simply put, were a majority of drafts to happen in this week, Minor would be rostered in pretty much every applicable league while McDonald would probably enter the season as a waiver wire option.

Looking solely at the duo’s final numbers, that wide of a split seems odd. Minor looks the better of the two in this light, but the difference looks like it should be measured in rounds or dollars not drafted or not. Take a look: Read the rest of this entry »

Of starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last year, the top three strikeout-to-walk ratios belonged to Cliff Lee, Colby Lewis, and … Marco Estrada. His 5.32 K/BB as a starter helped propel him to an overall 3.64 ERA, which marked the best season of his career and put him on fantasy radar for the first time.

The 29-year-old doesn’t possess a power repertoire that naturally leads to lofty strikeout rates, but Estrada proved to be a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners who plucked him off the waiver wire last season. He ended the 2012 season with the tenth-highest strikeout rate (9.26 K/9) among starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings.

But perhaps fantasy owners shouldn’t have been surprised that Estrada could rack up the strikeouts once he was given a full-time role in the starting rotation. After all, he has a career 9.02 K/9 strikeout rate and a career 10.2% swinging-strike rate. His career has only been 262.1 innings over bits and pieces of the past five years, but at the very worst, this is becoming a legitimate trend worth watching.

Marco Estrada offered more than just strikeouts last season, though, which is what makes him such an intriguing sleeper for the 2013 season. The right-hander also severely limited free passes, which helped him maintain a low WHIP (1.14). He was one of the few pitchers available in later rounds — or the waiver wire — who offered an above-average strikeout rate without sacrificing WHIP or ERA last year.

His 3.64 ERA also appears sustainable. His 3.35 FIP and 3.19 SIERA suggest he actually pitched better than his 2012 ERA otherwise indicates. Estrada occasionally struggles with giving up home runs — and that issue can be exacerbated by mostly pitching in Miller Park — but his home run rate was only slightly above the league average last season. He is essentially a lock to serve as the Brewers’ number-two starter and should be the beneficiary of a potent Brewers offense. That could lead to a double-digit win total for Estrada, which would be yet another advantage for fantasy owners in standard roto leagues.

Some have expressed concern regarding his slight velocity drop from 2011 to 2012. He dropped almost a mile per hour on his average fastball from 91.0 mph to 90.2 mph, but it’s important to remember that his 2011 velocity numbers mostly came out of the bullpen. That obviously lends itself to higher velocities. Most likely, Estrada’s velocity dip is most likely a result of transitioning to the starting rotation, not an indication of a potential injury.

Despite Estrada’s career year in 2012, he doesn’t project to cost and arm and a leg on draft day. In the most recent auction draft discussed on this site, Estrada went for $4. In the most recent snake draft, he wasn’t drafted until round 18. For a starting pitcher who can potentially provide value in strikeouts, WHIP, ERA, and wins, that’s a steal.

One of the things I’ll be watching this Spring is how the Seattle Mariners are using Charlie Furbush and what kind of results Blake Beavan and Hector Noesi are getting. If you listen to the organizational talking heads, it really seems to suggest that the rotation going into the season will be Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez, Beavan, and Noesi. As a Mariner fan, that should depress the hell out of you, but as far as fantasy baseball is concerned, Charlie Furbush is probably way more talented than the two at the back end of the rotation.

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The first lesson I learned from this draft is one I want to share with you even before the table of players and prices; it’s just that important. Do not try to do an auction draft on a phone. Snake drafts are unpleasant but doable; auctions are a recipe for disaster.

Lesson learned? Good! Here are the National League starting pitchers who were drafted in the recent Rotographs and friends mock auction. Read the rest of this entry »

The New York Mets have finally signed a major league free-agent this winter. Shaun Marcum will head to New York on a one-year deal, pending a physical. The 31-year-old pitcher has been effective throughout his career, with a 3.76 career ERA. Even though he missed a significant amount of last season with an injury, it was surprising to see a pitcher of his caliber receive little interest on the market. At the same time, Marcum wasn’t at his best last season, tossing just 124 innings with a 105 FIP-, his highest since 2008. If Marcum can stay healthy, he could be in for a resurgent season.

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