Exercising Caution With Brandon Morrow
Right-hander Brandon Morrow has been a fantasy sleeper since transitioning to the starting rotation full-time in 2010. He’s always been a guy with electric stuff, huge strikeout rates and solid FIPs/SIERAs — but his ERA has never seemingly lived up to the billing due to low strand rates and poor command. For many owners, he became the quintessential fantasy tease the past few years: a guy with enormous potential who always disappointed in the end.
As they say…
Fool me once — 4.49 ERA in 2010 — shame on you.
Fool me twice — 4.72 ERA in 2011 — shame on me.
Fool me three times … well, that wasn’t going to happen for many owners. Consecutive years of disappointment proved too much. In fact, several people I know blacklisted Morrow and simply refused to draft him for the 2012 season.
However, those fantasy owners who drafted the right-hander last year and trusted Morrow would finally deliver on his potential were rewarded. He compiled a 2.96 ERA, cut his walk rate to a career-best 2.96 BB/9, and posted the tenth-best WHIP (1.11) among all starters who threw at least 100 innings. Injuries held him back from a top-tier fantasy season, but the message came through loud and clear: Brandon Morrow has finally arrived.
But perhaps that was the wrong message to hear.
In many ways, what we saw last year was a slightly different version of Brandon Morrow. His fastball dropped in velocity by almost a mile per hour. His swinging-strike rate dropped to 9.0%, which was by far the lowest mark of his career. And as noted above, his 2.96 BB/9 walk rate was a career best. It’s decreased for three-consecutive seasons. He seemingly has committed himself to sacrificing velocity and strikeouts for better command.
This isn’t to say occasionally taking the foot off the gas pedal to regain command of the vehicle is inherently bad. It obviously paid dividends last year with a 2.96 ERA, and he held opposing hitters to a mere .213 batting average. There are, however, three main reasons owners should remain cautious and not overspend on Morrow, expecting similar results.
(1) The young man who vastly underperformed compared to his FIP and SIERA suddenly dramatically prevented far more runs than expected.
| Year | ERA | FIP | SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 4.49 | 3.16 | 3.31 |
| 2011 | 4.72 | 3.64 | 3.31 |
| 2012 | 2.96 | 3.65 | 3.91 |
According to FIP and SIERA (more so the latter than the former), Morrow actually had the worst season of his Blue Jays’ career in 2012. His K/BB ratio actually lowered from 2.94 K/BB in 2011 to 2.63 K/BB. Certainly not a dramatic drop, but the lack of improvement in that regard suggests his plunging ERA was not supported by better peripherals. He also benefited from a .252 BABIP, and although I hesitate to attribute that wholly to luck, the right-hander is predominantly a fly-ball pitcher and the Blue Jays’ outfield isn’t anything special defensively.
(2) Injuries. Morrow has struggled with injuries throughout his career. Last year, it was a strained oblique. The year before, it was forearm inflammation. He has only thrown more than 150 innings once in his career. Predicting injuries for pitchers is always a delicate and imprecise dance, but Morrow has never been a paragon of durability.
(3) He may no longer be a source of elite strikeout totals. His 7.80 K/9 strikeout rate ranked 50th among starters who threw at least 100 innings in 2012. That’s nothing to get excited about anymore. Even Joe Blanton posted a higher strikeout rate than Morrow last year.
Essentially, if his ERA increases next year and more closely mirrors last year’s SIERA, FIP and xFIP without an increase in strikeouts, he’s nothing more than a mediocre starting option in most fantasy formats. Add in the fact that Morrow has been prone to injury throughout his big-league career, and fantasy owners should tread cautiously on draft day to ensure they don’t overpay for the right-hander based upon his 2012 ERA and past reputation as a prime sleeper candidate.
If the strikeouts return and he can maintain his lower walk rate, the previous paragraph becomes moot. He would then be a potential top-20 starter with the standard injury-concern caveat. I’m just not sold the strikeouts will return to pre-2012 levels, so I hesitate to value Morrow as highly as some fantasy owners may on draft day.
Overall, Brandon Morrow remains a mid-tier fantasy option and absolutely has a home in fantasy rotations. Just be careful not to overvalue him and view last season as an outgrowth of his previous struggles. He was a different pitcher last year. Owners should value him based upon those numbers.
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
Any idea what his new rotation-mates might do to his performance? Getting guys like Dickey, Josh Johnson, and Buehrle certainly takes a little pressure off of Morrow (at least more so than guys like Brett Cecil and whoever else was in that Toronto rotation).
Zero effect one way or the other.
Completely disagree. Just because you don’t have a stat for it doesn’t mean it doesn’t have an effect. Not having to be the ace for a pitching staff could do a lot for psychologically fragile types. Whether Morrow is one of those, I do not know. But don’t bury your head in the sand and think these players are just machines who spew out stats.
Step away from the numbers for one minute. These are human beings we’re talking about here and human factors like Peter mentions are most certainly a factor in their performance.
Actually, the numbers have shown that whoever gets to throw after Dickey will get a real, but small, boost.
If his era is close to his fip or siera last year, I’d take a 3.65 to 3.90 era from a guy with that Blue jays line-up behind him. And at least it ws an oblique and not his arm last year.
I’m not saying Morrow isn’t worth drafting. I am saying, however, that owners should ensure they don’t overpay for that potential 3.60-3.90 ERA w/ middling strikeouts based upon last season’s numbers. That still has value, but not in front of someone like Brett Anderson in rounds 11-15.
Yeah, that makes sense. My league is a points league so he’s actually fairly cheap since he was out much of last year.
Wait… wouldn’t Anderson be an even greater injury risk? And he’s never been a strikeout king himself.
I don’t disagree with the statement but Brett Anderson seems like an oddball choice of guys to compare him to. Anderson K’s even fewer guys and has even more injury risk.
For years, Morrow underachieved because of his total inability to get the DP with runners on. He went for the strikeout, boosting the Ks but resulting in the opposition cashing in (when they crushed the pitches he was grooving). His ERA was higher because of this; he actually set some kind of record for consecutive starts without a DP.
Last year, he sacrificed the K to get the DP. You can see it in his boosted GB%, but his pitch selection in those situations is revealing.
The Ks are going to stay around 8, but he is a better pitcher. I would look for him to keep the lower ERA and lower K rate. I like his chances of winning WAY more games with this offence.
/.251 babip out of nowhere.
Morrow could very well improve on his sustainable metrics and throw another great year, but if he turn’s into a 3.7ish ERA pitcher that makes him barely above league average; the offensive environment has deflated so much that having an ERA of 4 means you’re bad at your job now.
Remember, though, that it’s a lot harder to be a starter than a reliever, and as a result an average SP has a higher than league-average ERA. (I’m not sure if WAR makes that adjustment, but it’s been shown to be true that a pitcher’s ERA jumps about 1 run when he moves from the pen to a starting role.)
@NeilS
Last year, per the league average, relievers had an ERA .52 less than starters. That gap is somewhat wider than in past years.
Totally missed this response! Anyway…
You’re making the wrong comparison. (Admittedly, this is partially my fault because my comment can be easily read to suggest that the league-average ERA for a starter is a point higher than that of a reliever. I didn’t actually meant to say that.)
The meaningful comparison isn’t ‘all starters’ vs. ‘all relievers’. Those are totally different populations. Generally, starters are better pitchers. So, since it’s hard to start than relieve, we *would* expect that the superior ability of the starters to be somewhat mitigated, and thus for the gap between the two populations to smaller than the true-talent gap.
But back to my point about the one-run difference: to make a meaningful comparison, you need to control for talent – and you can only easily do that if you use the population of pitchers who both started and relieved in the same year. And their ERAs are about a point better when they come out of the bullpen.
he’s a guy i’m still not sure what to make of. watching most of his starts it’s clear the strikeout is there when he needs it, as is the mid-upper 90’s fastball. he just seemed to throw a lot more two-seamers early in the count to get quick outs and keep the ball in the park more. definitely not an erosion of stuff – his fastball, slider and changeup all graded above average last year – more just the evolution of a pitcher. I still view him as a work in progress. if healthy i think he still has a shot at the elite tier, but i agree i wouldn’t go nuts on drafting him early
You may want to research the fact that Brandon is a diabetic and when not on the mound wears an insulin pump. There is no doubt this has added to the erratic nature of his performances over the years.
I’ve been watching Morrow, and he has proven to have electric stuff, but inconsistant. Only a few young pitchers break thru and stay close to elite.
Many more take a few years to get it together. Look at the MLB stat histories of Cliff Lee, Halladay, Greinke, Chris Carpenter, to name a few. They all knocked around, and broke to elite status at age 28-29, after a few years with average stats with very good stuff.
Could Morrow follow this pattern?