Sleeper SP: Marco Estrada
Of starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last year, the top three strikeout-to-walk ratios belonged to Cliff Lee, Colby Lewis, and … Marco Estrada. His 5.32 K/BB as a starter helped propel him to an overall 3.64 ERA, which marked the best season of his career and put him on fantasy radar for the first time.
The 29-year-old doesn’t possess a power repertoire that naturally leads to lofty strikeout rates, but Estrada proved to be a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners who plucked him off the waiver wire last season. He ended the 2012 season with the tenth-highest strikeout rate (9.26 K/9) among starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings.
But perhaps fantasy owners shouldn’t have been surprised that Estrada could rack up the strikeouts once he was given a full-time role in the starting rotation. After all, he has a career 9.02 K/9 strikeout rate and a career 10.2% swinging-strike rate. His career has only been 262.1 innings over bits and pieces of the past five years, but at the very worst, this is becoming a legitimate trend worth watching.
Marco Estrada offered more than just strikeouts last season, though, which is what makes him such an intriguing sleeper for the 2013 season. The right-hander also severely limited free passes, which helped him maintain a low WHIP (1.14). He was one of the few pitchers available in later rounds — or the waiver wire — who offered an above-average strikeout rate without sacrificing WHIP or ERA last year.
His 3.64 ERA also appears sustainable. His 3.35 FIP and 3.19 SIERA suggest he actually pitched better than his 2012 ERA otherwise indicates. Estrada occasionally struggles with giving up home runs — and that issue can be exacerbated by mostly pitching in Miller Park — but his home run rate was only slightly above the league average last season. He is essentially a lock to serve as the Brewers’ number-two starter and should be the beneficiary of a potent Brewers offense. That could lead to a double-digit win total for Estrada, which would be yet another advantage for fantasy owners in standard roto leagues.
Some have expressed concern regarding his slight velocity drop from 2011 to 2012. He dropped almost a mile per hour on his average fastball from 91.0 mph to 90.2 mph, but it’s important to remember that his 2011 velocity numbers mostly came out of the bullpen. That obviously lends itself to higher velocities. Most likely, Estrada’s velocity dip is most likely a result of transitioning to the starting rotation, not an indication of a potential injury.
Despite Estrada’s career year in 2012, he doesn’t project to cost and arm and a leg on draft day. In the most recent auction draft discussed on this site, Estrada went for $4. In the most recent snake draft, he wasn’t drafted until round 18. For a starting pitcher who can potentially provide value in strikeouts, WHIP, ERA, and wins, that’s a steal.
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
I owned him each of the last two seasons until finally believing the Brewers would never let him be a full-time starter. Ugh.
I scooped him off waivers last year – he was a crucial cog in my wheel of scrapheap starting staff. IIRC, wins were hard to come by for Estrada, but I held him for his K’s.
NOBODY ELSE READ THIS, I WANT HIM FOR MYSELF
THIS
Here’s what happens:
Yes, he IS currently a sleeper, but this is the fourth sleeper article I’ve seen about him already, and we’re two months away from drafts. The guys over at Yahoo will read this and the others and rank him at his potential, meaning 4-5 rounds earlier than he’s currently going in early drafts. In March, if you want to draft him, you’ll be taking him not as a steal but at his potential max value, which means he won’t be a value at all, and will bring much more risk since you’ll have to take him over many more established arms. So, sleeper right now, yes. Sleeper in March? Doubt it.
This is impossible to read without thinking of some crotchety old man
Anyone see him actually pitch? Well I have. The guys fastball is very flat and hittable which makes him prone to very bad games. He’s basically a 2 pitch pitcher (fb and curve).
I think Estrada is similar to Ricky Nolasco in being more “hittable” than his K/BB suggests, which is why his ERA always ends up higher than his FIP or xFIP. But I still like him a lot because he forces hitters to beat him. As long as you’re not expecting him to be a stud, you shouldn’t be disappointed.
I’ve seen Estrada pitch a lot, and I disagree on a couple points. His fastball is rather flat. It does have jump late at hitters, though, but he’s absolutely not a two-pitch pitcher. His best pitch is his changeup. Opposing hitters only hit .239 off his changeup last year and he got a swinging strike 13.9% of the time — throwing it 17-25% of the time depending on the year.
Unfortunately half of the guys in my league are from the Southern part of Wisconsin. He won’t be a sleeper in my league
I know this is an old post…but…I just have to vent now that it’s April…
I HATE walks…ok…make that….I DETEST walks…(fantasy pitchers should have a K/BB ratio of well over 2.5)…and I most especially detest the cardinal sin of walking the opposing pitcher AND/OR walking the lead off batter…and Mr. Estrada walked the opposing Cubs pitcher in his last outing…and then…surprise, surprise…paid the price as the next guy hits a home run…
That’s a huge red flag for me when evaluating pitching talent ’cause good pitchers just do not do that…if they have confidence and/or command of their pitches then opposing pitchers shouldn’t be an issue even if they luck into getting on with a hit…I mean…just throw the damn ball in the strike zone, don’t get cute, and make the opposing pitcher prove they can hit it…this guy is lucky he has K potential…he gets one more start for me.