Archive for Starting Pitchers

I’m enamored with Jimmy Nelson. I’ll get that out of the way immediately. Fair or unfair — and rational or irrational for that matter — I am a sucker for big pitchers, and Nelson fits the bill at 6-6 and 245 pounds. He’s built like a workhorse and has avoided any significant injuries. That said, he’s yet to eclipse the 200-innings mark. After pitching 180.1 innings across Triple-A and the majors last year, he’s in a position to make 2015 his first season of reaching or exceeding 200 innings. As you’ve probably guessed as a result of sharing my infatuation with Nelson, I expect them to be very good innings. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a month in and it’s time to update the NL SP tiers. A month can and definitely has changed things, but we need to be careful not to overreact to what we’ve seen so far, for better or worse. It’s a fine balance, though. We don’t want to overreact, but if we stay married to all of our preseason notions too long, we could miss the boat on guys, again for better or worse.

For May, I’ve got 10 tiers covering 70 names. I realize that there are 75 guys currently in rotations, but 10 of them just didn’t make the cut. Meanwhile, five injured arms not currently in rotations did merit a spot, thus the 70 count. I don’t yet have a fun theme for naming the tiers, but if the tiers are named by the time you read this, it means I came up with something and didn’t edit out this sentence.

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The other night was just another typical evening for Clay Buchholz. Five earned runs, including four early, caused frustrated fantasy owners to see 7.11 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in the box score. A quick Twitter search for Buchholz shows the bandwagon (if there was one) has emptied fast. Mass media is feeding the frenzy, especially with the Red Sox performing so poorly over the first few weeks of the season. Buchholz continues to say things about not getting breaks, such as “…ground balls when you want to get them hit at guys for double plays. It seems like the ball is finding a lot more holes right now.” But is he lying?

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It’s no secret that CC Sabathia has struggled mightily since 2013. It’s also no secret that his troubles have coincided with a swift decline in fastball velocity. Check out his velocity trend since 2011:

Last season he lost over two miles per hour off his fastball to a mark that dipped below the important 90 mph threshold. And yet despite the obvious signs of decline, I remained stubbornly optimistic, thanks to a still respectable SIERA. I (foolishly?) boldly predicted that Sabathia “reminds us of his glory days and earns top 40 starting pitcher value” this year.

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It’s oldies week here on our dumpster dive as we look at two players who, at one time or another, have generated interest in fantasy only to flame out. But they’re back with playing time opportunities, and do enough well to at least place them on the radar in AL-only leagues. As a reminder, I’m using CBS for the ownership percentages.
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For all the Anthony DeSclafani and Chase Anderson love I’m getting in my inbox and Twitter feed, there’s equal parts consternation when it comes to Drew Hutchison and Shane Greene. Rightfully so. The point with the deep sleepers is to hit the lottery, but that holds a hidden second moment, just as important as the first: cutting bait before it’s too late. Have we reached that moment with the two early season duds?

First, it’s tempting to see every pitcher through the new stats on the website. Shane Greene is top 15 in Soft%! Anthony DeSclafani is top 20! Drew Hutchison is almost exactly league average in soft, medium, and hard contact allowed!

But we shouldn’t.

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Yesterday, I dove into the Baseball-Reference S/Str (swinging strike rate) metric and identified those starting pitchers who have enjoyed the biggest surge compared to last season. So naturally, today I’ll check in on the other side of the coin — those starting pitchers who have suffered through the largest decline in swinging strike rate. Obviously, knowing that a pitcher is inducing fewer swings and misses is worrisome, but we’ll see if there’s any hope for a rebound.

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A week ago, I identified the starting pitchers whose xK% marks were most above their actual strikeout rates. The swinging strike component is the most significant in my xK% equation, so let’s take a look at which pitchers have enjoyed the biggest surge in their S/Str (Baseball-Reference metric) this season. The 2015 numbers do not include yesterday’s starts.

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I will continue to implement player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Michael Lorenzen (CV: 50/FV: 60)
4/29/15 vs Brewers

Game Thoughts
• This game was the 23-year-old righty’s first MLB start.
• His fastball was 93-95 mph with either no break or just a bit on the release side. It was his only called strike pitch of the night. He nibbled with it around the zone seeing a ton of full counts. Also, he got too much of the plate at times with it thereby giving up three homes.
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It’s tier update time! I’m notoriously stubborn when it comes to changing my opinion of a player and three or four starts is far too small a sample to convince me to make any real dramatic adjustments. However, there are some scenarios in which I will reconsider — a change in fastball velocity, a change in pitch mix, an injury, or perhaps the pitcher’s defensive support performing better or worse than expected. That’s really about it. I care little for actual results at this point unless there’s a significant change in results not explained by the aforementioned factors. Like, if Mark Buehrle was suddenly striking out more than a batter per inning. My xK% equation is fantastic in small sample sizes since it’s based on per-pitch metrics and not innings or batters faced. But still, the underlying components themselves could quickly change.

As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

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