On Monday I ran the 2015 Steamer projections for starting pitchers through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared them to early NFBC ADP data to identify some possible bust candidates. I looked at four guys specifically, but there are a few more names that I think are worth discussing.

Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres

Despite having a 2.55 ERA last year, early drafters seem to recognize that Cashner has some limitations. He’s going 35th among starters, but given his ERA last year and some perceived name value, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was going at least in the top 30. Presumably concerns about his ability to pitch a healthy number of innings and his lack of strikeouts in recent years have tempered Cashner enthusiasm. But according to Steamer, drafters are still too enthused as Cashner comes in 67th in the Steamer rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rangers took a significant step on Monday toward restoring some semblance of stability to a rotation that was among baseball’s worst last year, acquiring Yovani Gallardo from the Brewers for three minor leaguers. I’ll let others pick apart the deal from a real-life perspective; at the very least, the Rangers are getting a guy who has averaged 192.5 innings a season since 2009, a period during which he’s made at least 30 starts each year.

On the fantasy side of things, however, it’s hard to see this as helping a career that has been trending downward for some time; last year, Gallardo generated slightly negative value and finished 86th among starting pitchers, according to Zach Sanders’ end of the season rankings. Now, Gallardo, who turns 29 next month, is joining a league that features the DH, while having to toil in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball.
Read the rest of this entry »

I am huge proponent of the pitch type work which has led to the Arsenal Score here are FanGraphs. One possible issue with pitch type data is a reasonable amount of data needs to be collected before any conclusions could be draw. I am going to take it a step further today and look for MLB ready fastballs knowing just the pitcher’s velocity and break. Just knowing how the pitch’s speed and trajectory, some conclusions can be drawn on how the pitcher will perform in the future.

This past summer, I found how to estimate a pitcher’s fastball ground ball (GB%) and swinging strike rate (SwStr%) knowing just the velocity and break. The ground ball rate was the same for all pitches while the swinging strike rate varied a bit. Well, I went into meld/average mode to come up with a method to find a simple way to determine how productive a fastball may be knowing its current break and speed.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week I ran the 2015 Steamer projections through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared them to early NFBC ADP data to identify potential sleepers and busts. This week we’ll do the same with starting pitchers. We’ll start with busts today.

Mat Latos, Miami Marlins

Latos is being drafted as the 45th starting pitcher off the board, which is basically just above the cut line for guys that have to be owned in all shallower mixed leagues. Once you get past the top 50, you’re pretty much in streaming territory. But Steamer doesn’t think he’s anything more than a potential streaming option as he comes in 84th in the projection rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

Lisalverto Bonilla

Why I watched: An 3.05 ERA with the Rangers in ‘14

Game(s) Watched: 9/24/14 vs Astros

Read the rest of this entry »

Because I’m a hopeless dweeb starved for baseball, I was watching the Mets’ last game of the 2014 season the other day. Sure, sitting through a meaningless game between the sub-.500 Mets and the hapless Astros — when I already know the outcome — might raise questions about my insomnia and/or social life, but keep in mind that the Mets haven’t played winning, feel-good baseball since the Bush administration, and there was a lot to be positive about on Sept. 28.

Lucas Duda cranked home run No. 30 and passed the 90-RBI mark, validating once and for all management’s decision to trade Ike Davis. Bobby Abreu collected the last hit of his career and was rewarded with a heartfelt, rousing ovation from fans who had booed him for years when he was a Phillie. In general, the atmosphere at Citi Field, coming at the conclusion of a strong second half and a 15-10 record in September, hinted that 2015 could be a year of actual competitive baseball in Queens and that there was a lot to look forward to.

And Bartolo Colon notched his 15th victory.
Read the rest of this entry »

Gibson ranked 109th on Zach Sanders’ postseason starting pitcher rankings.

Tommy John surgery cost Kyle Gibson a significant part of 2011, and nearly the entire 2012 season. As a result, the former first-round pick — as a college pitcher — didn’t debut until he was 25, or see full-time action in the big leagues until he was 26. Being a bit behind the curve has sort of been the key theme in Gibson’s career, but he made headway in that department in 2014 — in some respects.

Gibson’s overall like of 13-12, 4.47 ERA and 5.4 K/9 is definitely not what some might consider progress. In fact, the American League average starting pitcher had a 3.92 ERA, 3.85 FIP and 7.4 K/9 — marks Gibson missed by quite a bit. But where the tall righty gets a pass is in groundball rate, where his 54.4 percent mark doesn’t only smoke the league average rate (43.2 percent), but rather ranks seventh league wide. A 6-foot-6 righthander getting that kind of downward plane is a very, very good thing. Read the rest of this entry »

Carlos Martinez

Why I watched: He has been getting a little love and hate here at FanGraphs. Also, I wanted to see why the Cardinals are hesitant to make him a starter.

Game(s) Watched: 9/18/14 vs Pirates

Game Thoughts

• The 23-year-old righty works fast.

• He shows his emotions quite a bit on the mound. Once he got the sign for a change, he grimaced and then threw it in the dirt.

Read the rest of this entry »

Mat Latos began and ended his 2014 season by missing time because of injuries. Between the two layoffs, he seemed to produce like he did in the past with a 3.25 ERA (3.34 for his career). One difference between his previous couple of seasons and 2014 was a huge drop in strikeouts. They went from 8.0 K/9 in both 2012 and 2013 to 6.5 K/9 in 2014. The biggest reason for the decline in strikeouts was a near 2 mph drop in his fastball velocity. This off season he was traded from the Reds to the Marlins where he hopes regain some of the zip on his fastball, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Read the rest of this entry »

As good as he has been as General Manager of the Oakland Athletics, one wonders if Billy Beane would like a taksies-backsies on Hisashi Iwakuma.

It might be hard to remember that Iwakuma was originally posted all the way back in 2010 when they were still making cars called “Pontiac” and “Saturn”. Oakland won the rights to negotiate with Iwakuma, but recognizing he was a year away from free agency, they may never have been all that serious about securing his services at the asking price of his agent, which was reportedly a little ridiculous. So it goes.

Read the rest of this entry »