Bartolo Colon, Somehow, Keeps on Chugging Along

Because I’m a hopeless dweeb starved for baseball, I was watching the Mets’ last game of the 2014 season the other day. Sure, sitting through a meaningless game between the sub-.500 Mets and the hapless Astros — when I already know the outcome — might raise questions about my insomnia and/or social life, but keep in mind that the Mets haven’t played winning, feel-good baseball since the Bush administration, and there was a lot to be positive about on Sept. 28.

Lucas Duda cranked home run No. 30 and passed the 90-RBI mark, validating once and for all management’s decision to trade Ike Davis. Bobby Abreu collected the last hit of his career and was rewarded with a heartfelt, rousing ovation from fans who had booed him for years when he was a Phillie. In general, the atmosphere at Citi Field, coming at the conclusion of a strong second half and a 15-10 record in September, hinted that 2015 could be a year of actual competitive baseball in Queens and that there was a lot to look forward to.

And Bartolo Colon notched his 15th victory.

OK, so that last accomplishment pales in comparison to the rest of that day’s good vibes. But still, you kinda have to respect the final numbers for a 41-year-old who officially tips the scales at 285 pounds: a 15-13 record for a losing team, a microscopic walk rate, 30 starts for the second year in a row, and 202.1 innings, the most he’s pitched since 2005. All in all, it was a fine season for Colon, good enough for him to earn positive value and finish 63rd among starting pitchers in Zach Sanders’ end of the season rankings.

Basically, it’s probably safe to say he fulfilled most owners’ best-case scenario for him, since most probably didn’t expect him to repeat his sterling 2013 campaign, in which he put up 3.9 WAR. That’s when Colon, as you may recall, compiled his best year in nearly a decade, going 18-6 with a tiny walk rate and a 2.65 ERA that was good enough for second among qualified AL starters.

But several factors broke his way, including an 80% strand rate, good fortune on HR/FB% and the fourth-highest run support among qualified starters. Leaving hitter-hating O.co Coliseum for the more offensively-neutral Citi Field, it stood to reason that his numbers would take a bit of a hit.

Thing is, Colon improved on his 2013 season in several ways. His microscopic 1.3 BB/9 was the best of his career, with his 3.6% walk rate the lowest among qualified starters. His 6.7 K/9, while a full strikeout below league average, was among his best showings in recent years. His 3.68 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA were both better than his 2013 marks, and, along with his 3.57 FIP, suggests he was cheated a tad on his 4.09 ERA. All this in a season in which the peripherals that helped float him during his 2013 year fell back to earth.

Part of what makes Colon a fun character to watch in real-life is that, at this stage in his career, he simply does what he does, and he is who he is. He throws strike one — his F-Strike% is fourth among starters with at least 700 innings since 2011. He throws fastballs — no starter relied more heavily on his heater last year than he did. He pitches to contact — his 87.9% rate was the highest among qualified starters, while his 5.6% whiff rate was the lowest among that same group.

He’s also a good fit for the Mets. Colon generates a lot of fly balls, and although the likes of Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer won’t be of much help in the outfield corners, at least he’ll have Juan Lagares in center, the man whose 25.3 UZR/150 ranked first among qualified outfielders. Plus, while Colon’s strikeouts rely heavily on looking strikes — 47% of his punchouts came that way, second only to Mark Buehrle — he’ll once again be pitching to Travis d’Arnaud, who’s established himself as a capable pitch-framer behind the plate.

That’s assuming, of course, he’s on the Mets in 2015. With a logjam of young starting rotation candidates, the Mets would love to ship Colon to another team, though as of this writing, it appears more likely that either Dillon Gee or Jon Niese, both 28 and cheaper than the $11 million that Colon is owed for this season, will be moved. In any event, we’ll assume for the moment that Colon will return to the NL East, where he’ll get to face the impoverished lineups of the Braves and Phillies on a regular basis.

Of course, none of this is to say that Colon, who turns 42 in May, is anything more than, at best, a deeper mixed league option for 2015. He gives up too many hits, a regression in his strikeouts is predictable and the 4.16 ERA that Steamer forecasts, based on the assumption that Colon surrenders a few more home runs, doesn’t sound unreasonable.

Then again, it’s not like anyone is drafting Colon to anchor their pitching staff, and he was plenty valuable in NL-only formats last year, where just having a rotation spot often is enough to merit attention. We’ll see how long Colon can hang around the majors, but he remains a competent and capable major league starter, one who will likely be cheap enough on draft day to make him a solid candidate to outperform his price tag.