Quick Looks: Roark, Bonilla and Wheeler
Why I watched: An 3.05 ERA with the Rangers in ‘14
Game(s) Watched: 9/24/14 vs Astros
Game Thoughts
• Wore a dirty hat.
• The 24-year-old righty pitches worked top down with not much side to side break.
• His fastball was between 91-94 mph which he kept down. At times it had some sink and glove side break.
• He threw a 81 mph 12/6 sweep curve with some late break.
• His change was at 85-86 mph which was straight and sometimes it dropped. It was very inconsistent. The first three of them he threw were in the dirt.
• He started the game with no control (15% BB% on the season), but settled down as the game went on.
• He or his pitches weren’t ready for the majors, but because of the all the Ranger injuries he was forced into MLB service. He needs more minor league coaching.
Final thoughts: He wasn’t ready to pitch in the majors, but his pitches were decent when he controlled them. Don’t let this call up determine any future take on him. He isn’t going to touted, but he could turn into a usable starter if he can get the walks under control.
Why I watched: Top prospect I have been down on because of walk issues.
Game(s) Watched: 9/25/14 vs Nationals
Game Thoughts
• During 1st inning Lucas Giolito was in the broadcast booth to talk baseball.
• He threw a four-seam 95-98 mph straight fastball which sometimes broke to the glove side.
• His change was straight and at 89-92 mph. He kept the pitch low in the zone.
• His slider was between 89-91 mph. It acts exactly like his change but with some late sharp drop. At times it is really tough to tell the difference between the two pitches.
• His curve was between 80-81 mph and was a loopy pitch with 12/6 break.
• All the pitches seemed good and are all rated above average in SwStr% and GB% except his change which is worthless statistically (16% Zone%, 7% SwStr%).
• He nibbles around the plate. He gets into tons of deep counts and has led to a 10% BB% rate in his first couple of seasons.
Final thoughts: I wonder if a less is more with Wheeler. Drop the change and become a fastball/slider/curve guy like Kershaw. Get those three pitches down cold. Also, he needs to trust the pitches and just throw them for strikes.
Why I watched: His ERA has been three quarters of a run less than his FIP in his first two seasons
Game(s) Watched: 9/23 vs the Mets
Game Thoughts
• The 28-year-old righty’s four-seam fastball was straight and at 88-92 mph.
• His two-seamer was between 87-92 mph with some release side break.
• His slider was at 83-84 mph with 1/7 motion with some nice sharp late break.
• He threw one curve and it was at 77 mph and went into the dirt in front of the plate..
• Nothing stood out, which is why he may have flown under the prospect radar. Average pitches lead to average results which is useful in the majors.
I saw nothing to explain is low BABIP which is leading to an ERA less than his ERA estimators.
Final thoughts: He flew under the radar by being average and there is some usefulness to that. He reminds of his teammate, Doug Fister. Both won’t walk or strikeout a bunch of batters, throw a bunch of innings and keep their team in the game. If Doug Fister is draftable in your league, so is Roark.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Top 5 best SP “stuff” I saw, last year. (Fernandez was #1)
^^^^^ Wheeler ^^^^^
He has some Sherzer in him. I like floor with a chance to improve quite a bit.
It’s a small sample size, but Bonilla’s changeup was incredibly unhitable last year. He posted a 47% contact rate on it. I wish I could find a list of contact rates on different pitch types, but that’s got to be at the top. The only other pitch I could find below a 50% contact rate was Kimbrel’s knuckle curve.
If I had to guess, Bonilla would have >50% contact rate on the pitch in a full season, but it’s at least very encouraging, especially when his curve ball was swung and missed on nearly as often.
Obviously, his control issues could prohibit him from ever being a successful major league player, but he’s definitely a player to keep an eye on.
Roark isn’t average when it comes to command or consistency. Also, his BABIP is low because he pitches up in the zone and gets lots of pop-ups.
I’ve watched Wheeler a good bit since his June 2013 call up, and while I see his upside, he really needs to gain better control of the strikezone. There were way too many times he would get to 90+ pitches in the 4th inning because of what is described by the writer in the story. In fact, that is what has seemed to plague Met starters in recent memory, letting things get out of hand by walking guys and finding ways to give up big hits to guys like Freddie Freeman, Jimmy Rollins, etc on a consistent basis.
I hope he has grasped that better for this year, because watching it start after start was painful to watch. He has great stuff, but I’d like to see a WHIP at around 1.1-1.5, if not better.