Can Mat Latos Regain His Velocity?
Mat Latos began and ended his 2014 season by missing time because of injuries. Between the two layoffs, he seemed to produce like he did in the past with a 3.25 ERA (3.34 for his career). One difference between his previous couple of seasons and 2014 was a huge drop in strikeouts. They went from 8.0 K/9 in both 2012 and 2013 to 6.5 K/9 in 2014. The biggest reason for the decline in strikeouts was a near 2 mph drop in his fastball velocity. This off season he was traded from the Reds to the Marlins where he hopes regain some of the zip on his fastball, but I wouldn’t count on it.
On average, pitchers lose some velocity every season with the amount of decline starting to really increase from the age 26 to 27 season.
Latos’s drop happened right before this age range, but the decline is on average a quarter to a third of a mile per hour. Not the nearly 2 mph decline Latos saw.
So should we expect much of a rebound with Latos’s velocity? If so how much? I examined data from 2005 to 2014 for when a starter threw a minimum of 10 IP (fastball velocity stabilizes quickly) and started at least half their games for three consecutive seasons. I did the same for relievers (half of their appearances were in relief each season). Here is how the data broke down.
Note: I included median values because I wanted to make sure a few large values didn’t dominate the average change.
Starters
| MPH change | Average change (Y1 to Y2) | Median Change (Y1 to Y2) | Average change (Y2 to Y3) | Median Change (Y2 to Y3) |
| +1 or more | 1.6 | 1.5 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| +0.5 to +0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| +0.4 to -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| -0.5 to -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| -1.0 to -1.4 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| -1.5 to -1.9 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| -2 or less | -2.3 | -2.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
Relievers
| MPH change | Average change (Y1 to Y2) | Median Change (Y1 to Y2) | Average change (Y2 to Y3) | Median Change (Y2 to Y3) |
| +2 or more | 2.4 | 2.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| +1.5 to +1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| +1 to +1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| +0.5 to +0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| +0.4 to -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| -0.5 to -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| -1.0 to -1.4 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| -1.5 to -1.9 | -1.7 | -1.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| -2 or less | -2.4 | -2.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
Well a huge bounce back doesn’t look likely, but his velocity change (officially -1.9 mph) falls right at the difference between the last two ranges. Looking at the starters who saw -1.7 mph to -2.1 mph change here are the results:
| Category | Value |
| Average change (Y1 to Y2) | -1.9 |
| Median Change (Y1 to Y2) | -1.8 |
| Average change (Y2 to Y3) | 0.0 |
| Median Change (Y2 to Y3) | -0.2 |
| % Increase | 48% |
| Largest Increase | 1.5 mph |
| % Decrease | 52% |
| Largest Decrease | -1.7 mph |
The future doesn’t look bright for Latos. The “good” news is his velocity will likely not decline any further in 2015, but neither will it go up. Looking at the 97 pitchers who lost between 1.0 and 1.4 mph, 11% gained 1 or more mile per hour after the loss. On the other hand, 16% lost an additional 1 mph or more.
Don’t ever assume a pitcher will regain lost velocity after experiencing significant decline. The best case estimate is the pitcher will stay constant. If Mat Latos see’s a large bump up, great, but he will be the exception instead of the rule.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Is age taken into account for those charts? I would think older starters are more likely to lose velocity and not regain it than someone of Latos’ age.
Latos is actually fairly old for a pitcher on the aging curve and should start seeing some significant aging without the injury.
Also, I was running into some sample size issues as seen by the starting pitchers having less categories than relievers.
I don’t know why but I thought of Brad Penny while reading this. Brad Penny When he came up had a heck of a fastball. He never quite missed enough bats and was his own worst enemy with a walk rate of over 2.5/9. Latos has better stuff, misses far more bats, but has the same control problem that kills his efficiency to be that premier #1 starter. He could still be a better than average pitcher if his k rate declined as long as he cut out the walks to 2/9 or lower. Penny had more issues to deal with in vhis early prime like that strange nerve thing. So he broke down pretty quickly as far as his shelf life. Latos should have a good career regardless of how much velocity he gets back as long as he is able to better harness his control. hope that helps get people thinking even if it flushes my post down the toilet of the internets!
The main problem you are seeing with Mat Latos is he doesn’t pitch with his legs. While other pitchers pitch with their legs and at least attempt to keep their arms healthy Latos pitches solely with his arm. He’s dying. I think that this downward trend will continue and may increase in the wrong direction for him.
Well at least if he’s dying and pitching with his arms, then he is positioned well on the mound. Maybe they can bury his feet in the ground and use him like a slingshot or a Weeble to pitch. Pitchers who pitch with their legs never have the ability to pitch well again once they are dead.
I am fairly certain Latos has also changed his profile over the last couple of years being more of an asset in the WHIP dept (less BBs at least) and growing into a GB guy. One would have to think watching long popups leave Great American was a nice little incentive to head in the direction. Now in Mia and not pitching the entire season with an injury, is it hard to see him come back with more of an aggressive state of mind in his walk year using the park as an advantage? I don’t know, just seems interesting like a classic throw my arm out and hope it lasts bc if he does go 200+ IP with 200 K and decent run support with 15 W his payday is Shields. Yes, he came up at 20 I believe and does use his size which looks like more strain on the arm. Is the stride short? That usually puts more stress on the shoulder. Rich Wilson pointed out at the start of last season how Walker shortened his stride to gain in the cmd dept, but also predicted an injury which seemingly came true on command.