Archive for Starting Pitchers

Two weeks ago, I facetiously appended “Deep A.L. West-Only Leagues” to the end of my column’s title since the two players I wrote about both played in the A.L. West, specifically in Oakland. As if there are A.L. West-only leagues. Actually, are there A.L. West-only Leagues? Or any division for that matter? Do any of you play in divisional-only leagues? If so, why? And how’d you settle on your division? Please let me know in the comments because I’m dying to hear what a frustratingly unsatisfying experience that must be.

Well, this week I’m at it again championing two more unheralded and under-owned A.L. West players toiling away in fantasy obscurity, eager for the opportunity to play on a contender. Even one of the digital variety.

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I honestly can’t believe the season is almost over. I’m already sad about it, but instead of moping I want to enjoy these final few weeks of the regular season before what should be a great playoff and World Series. The day-to-day volatility of baseball can make it tough to find key waiver pickups with less than a month to go. Usually we need a couple of weeks to truly see if a guy can deliver for you, but we simply don’t have that kind of time so our gambles need to be even more calculated than in May or June when we still have more season in front of us than behind. I’ve been meticulously combing the waiver wires looking for every little edge and I think I’ve found some arms for those of you in need of strikeouts.

THE REDS

Brandon Finnegan: The Reds schedule shapes up to leverage multiple starters for some strikeouts starting with Finnegan this weekend. His next three starts are at Pittsburgh, home against Pittsburgh, and then at Milwaukee. Those two teams are both top-5 in strikeout rate against lefties – top-5 being bad in this case.

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Today’s MASH Report is being brought to you by Ryan Butcher and Wade Davis. The pair were given a few days off recently to get themselves back together. Butcher was sent to the minor and Davis to the DL. While both may have needed a break, one interesting note exists about them missing time, both pitchers experienced a drop in their fastball spin rate right before the decision was made

These are the first two times I have seen a major league team admit that a pitcher’s spin was used to decide on how they handle a pitcher. It has been known for a while that changes in spin rate can help detect injuries. Eno Sarris talked to FanGraphs friend, Kyle Boddy about this issue.

From that discovery flowed others. “Spin-rate changes are actually one of the best predictors of injury,” pointed out Boddy, a fact that was confirmed as a known within many parts of the baseball community by multiple sources. At Driveline, pitchers have their spin rates monitored constantly for the earliest signs of unhealthy fatigue.

The problem for the general public, we have not had good access to pitch spin data until StatCast began releasing data last year. Here is a detailed look at the two pitchers whose spin rate change cause their team to act and can we make any conclusion from them.

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September baseball is the last call of the fantasy baseball saloon, and we’re all desperately scanning the room looking for that last great chance at glory. More often than not — especially if your ERA and WHIP are tanked and all you need is quality — we’re looking down that list of probable starters, looking for a pitcher worth picking up. Even better, a pitcher we could pick up and actually keep for his last few starts, something to keep us from blinking through the beer goggles of desperation again tomorrow.

Let’s take a look at some of the lesser-owned pitchers and see if any of them separate themselves.

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Earlier this week, I presented my top 100 starters for the rest of the season. Apart from not slotting two of the game’s biggest talents (including the very best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw), I’m happy with the list. I gave a quick thought or two about each as well, but today I want to highlight three (plus a quick honorable mention) who are lower on the list, but could make a big September impact.

Let’s actually start with the Honorable Mention.

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While his ERA only dropped marginally from 2014, last year Chris Archer vaulted into the elite, thanks to pumping up his slider usage, which dramatically boosted his strikeout rate. Unfortunately, the 2016 season did not begin the way he, or his owners, imagined it would. He ended the month of June with an ugly 4.76 ERA, his control had deteriorated, and he was giving up homers like never before. So how did he cure his issues? By throwing even more sliders, of course. Let’s break down his season into two parts, which seem to correlate with the time he further upped his slider usage.

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Can you believe we’re entering the final full month of the regular season? That’s so sad. However, the stretch run is also one of the best times of the year, especially if your fantasy team is a contender. I’ve compiled my Top 100 for the rest of the season with a quick thought or two on each. Let me know what you think. Who is your big gamble arm for September? Anyone you think will be vastly better than his current numbers? Also, let me know if there are any glaring omissions.

Chris Tillman is unlikely to reach the September 10th return they originally set which puts him in limbo. If he can return by September 15th, that should be four starts, but I left him off due to the injury uncertainty. If you have him on your DL, obviously hang on, but I’m not necessarily targeting him on the wire.

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It hasn’t exactly been an easy season for fans of East Bay baseball. Facing a rotation eviscerated by injuries and trades and clubhouse chemistry, once impervious to losing, lost, there hasn’t been much for A’s fans to gloat over. Not that expectations were all that high to begin with, but this? The best that can be said about 2016 is that at least the front office made a firm commitment to its youth as soon as it became obvious that meaningful baseball would not be played in the Coliseum at the same time meaningless football would be. And for that fantasy managers and particularly those digging for championships in deep leagues, should be thankful.

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Chad Kuhl: Quick Look

The 23-year-old righty has been getting some love because of his improved second half when he has posted a 2.37 ERA with 11.3% K%-BB% and a 50% GB%.

I will start with his 2016 MLB.com grades of:

• Fastball: 60
• Slider: 50
• Changeup: 45
• Control: 50
• Overall: 50

His grades weren’t this high until this year. Most places saw him as a low-level bullpen arm.

Year(publication): Overall grade
2016 (BA): 40
2015 (BA): 45
2015 (MLB): 45

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Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Pirates picked up a former Yankee and he’s excelling with them. It’s only four starts so let’s not get too crazy, but I think a lot of us were eager to see what – if anything – Ivan Nova would do with Pittsburgh. Not only was he going to be under the tutelage of Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, but he’d also be going from Yankee Stadium to PNC Park for his home games, a colossal shift for a pitcher with a 1.3 HR/9 rate since 2012 including a horrific 1.8 this year with the Yankees.

On the heels of a complete game against Houston, Nova has a 3.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with Pittsburgh in 25.3 innings. His K/9 rate is actually down half a strikeout to 6.4, but his walks have tumbled so much that his strikeout percentage is the same 18% he had with the Yankees. Nova has generally been a better-than-average walk suppressor, but with Pittsburgh he’s on a new level. He’s currently walking just 1% of the batters he’s faced as a Pirate. And that ghastly home run rate is down to 0.7 HR/9. The only time he’s ever been lower was when he had a 0.6 in 2013, unsurprisingly his best season ever.

This isn’t Nova’s first good four or five start run this year. He closed May with a 3.41 ERA in five starts and he opened July with a 2.66 through four starts. So we shouldn’t just assume he’s gone to Pittsburgh and become the next J.A. Happ or something. He could just be having a nice run, something he’s done many times before. The sharp drops in homers and walks have me intrigued, though. Let’s see if there are discernable differences early on. Obviously, league and park change alone will account for some improvement, so we’re looking beyond that to his approach against righties and lefties.

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