Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Kuhl, Bailey, Pollock, Upton & More

Chad Kuhl: Quick Look

The 23-year-old righty has been getting some love because of his improved second half when he has posted a 2.37 ERA with 11.3% K%-BB% and a 50% GB%.

I will start with his 2016 MLB.com grades of:

  • Fastball: 60
  • Slider: 50
  • Changeup: 45
  • Control: 50
  • Overall: 50

His grades weren’t this high until this year. Most places saw him as a low-level bullpen arm.

Year(publication): Overall grade
2016 (BA): 40
2015 (BA): 45
2015 (MLB): 45

Baseball America never gave him any pitch grades, but MLB.com did in 2015 and the only change was his Slider was rated at 45 vs. 50. These grades where that bad

Some pitchers with similar comps to his 2016 MLB.com grades are:

Chad Kuhl Prospect Grade Comps
Name Year Report Publication Fastball Slider Changeup/splitter Control/Command
Chad Kuhl 2016 MLB 60 50 45 50
Buck Farmer 2014 MLB 60 50 45 50
Sean Manaea 2016 BA 60 55 45 50
Amir Garrett 2016 BA 60 50 45 45
Eduardo Rodriquez 2014 MLB 55 50 50 50
Justus Sheffield 2016 2080 60 55 50 50
Anthony Desclafani 2014 MLB 60 55 45 55
Edwin Diaz 2014 MLB 60 55 40 50
A.J. Cole 2015 BA 55 50 50 55
Erick Fedde 2016 MLB 60 55 50 55
Josh Hader 2014 MLB 60 45 50 45
Brandon Finnegan 2015 MLB 65 55 50 50
Mark Appel 2016 MLB 65 55 50 50
Jose De Leon 2014 MLB 65 55 50 50
Michael Feliz 2014 MLB 65 55 50 50
Blake Snell 2014 MLB 60 55 50 45
Michael Lorenzen 2014 MLB 65 50 40 45

Some good, some bad. Truthfully, I looked at all this information after I watched his start. I think he is making great adjustments and the information on him may be getting dated with each additional start.

Note: I watched the August 20 game because the Pittsburgh video feed angle is way better than the one for Milwaukee home games which was his last start.

  • Nice straight up stance with smooth delivery home.
  • Fastball: Four-seamer at 92-95 mph. He had perfect command of this pitch. It’s not special in any way besides the command.
  • Sinker: Sat at 91-94 mph with sink and a small amount of glove-side run. Not curvy.
  • Slider: At 85-88 mph with a nice break to his glove side. It is his chase pitch with an 18% swinging-strike rate. This pitch is a plus pitch and should have at least a 55 grade.
  • Change: At 86-87 mph with 12-6 sink for strikes. Looked like a hard curve. Hittable groundball pitch.
  • He can really mix up his pitches and they all generally break in differently so he shouldn’t have much of platoon issues. Besides the slider, none of the pitches break a ton, so I could see him be a possible weak contact pitcher.

I am not sure how to value him going forward because he keeps changing from his old scouting reports. One current example of him changes is that he is throwing his four-seamer more than his two-seamer.

I think he will useable fantasy pitcher, but his limited strikeout rate will bring down his value. I was looking for some current comps to his 2H strikeout, walk, and groundball rates and came up with Jimmy Nelson, Michael Wacha, and Tanner Roark. I think he could improve as he refines his pitches and be better than all three. I think he has some decent current fantasy value, but watch his last month to find out if he stabilizes his production.

Fastball Velocity Changes

• I have slacking at publishing pitchers with velocity changes. I have decided to change the process a bit. Instead of doing the list daily, I am going to look back over the past seven days and use the velocity readings from those days. Here is the current list of pitchers and their in-season and changes from 2015. Two starters stick out with a 2 mph velocity bump compared to the early in the season, Yordano Ventura and Robbie Ray. Here is each K% from the 1H to the 2H:

Name: 1H K%, 2H K%
Ventura: 17%, 20%
Ray: 26%, 33%

• On the velocity loss front, Homer Bailey’s velocity is in free fall.

I didn’t like the whole Homer Bailey rehab experience. He tried to rush back in less than a year and then had several setbacks. Unless he does a complete 180 to end the season, am staying away from owning him in 2017.

• Another interesting pitcher showing some velocity decline is Carlos Martinez.

His fastball velocity has been down lately and his strikeout rate has followed.
Year (half): FBv, K/9
2016 (1H): 96.5, 7.6
2016 (2H): 95.8, 6.6

The 6.6 K/9 is not close to the 9.2 K/9 he was posting last season and which people expected when they drafted him. I am a little concerned with the recent drop and want to see how he ends the season.

Pitchers getting shutdown

• The Phillies are looking to shut down Vince Velasquez and Jake Thompson soon.

“We’ve talked about it,” Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said Saturday. “I haven’t been involved in in-depth conversations, but I know at some point Thompson is going to be cut short, and Velasquez is going to be cut short at some point. But it’s not an exact science right now. We don’t have a definite date yet. Maybe another week. It depends on how many innings they give us now.”

• The Tigers are going to limit Michael Fulmer’s starts.

The Tigers have their next scheduled off-day next Thursday. If manager Brad Ausmus kept his rotation on turn, Fulmer would pitch the day after that. However, the Tigers can push him as far back as Sept. 6, the day after Labor Day, without needing an extra starter.

Archie Bradley is likely to reach an innings cap soon.

As rookie right-hander Archie Bradley’s innings continue to climb, the Diamondbacks are working through their options on how to handle him. They could limit him within his outings. They could skip starts. They could shut him down before the end of the season.

Notes

• Last week, A.J. Pollock made his return to the field. In a small sample, his 2016 average exit velocity (87.3 mph) is a bit lower than his 2015 value (88.9 mph).

• I was asked recently if I thought Justin Upton’s drop was from an injury. I didn’t find anything with an injury but did find that he and his brother aged similarly.

• The Royals have announced Matt Strahm will likely start for the Royals in 2017. He could be a nice buy low as a current middle reliever in keeper leagues and be a decent starter next season.

• I expect Pablo Sandoval to get zero love next year, but with a new shoulder and figure, he is the true buy low candidate.

 





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Brock Paperscissors
7 years ago

Great stuff, Jeff!