Deep League Waiver Wire – Cotton and Marte

Two weeks ago, I facetiously appended “Deep A.L. West-Only Leagues” to the end of my column’s title since the two players I wrote about both played in the A.L. West, specifically in Oakland. As if there are A.L. West-only leagues. Actually, are there A.L. West-only Leagues? Or any division for that matter? Do any of you play in divisional-only leagues? If so, why? And how’d you settle on your division? Please let me know in the comments because I’m dying to hear what a frustratingly unsatisfying experience that must be.

Well, this week I’m at it again championing two more unheralded and under-owned A.L. West players toiling away in fantasy obscurity, eager for the opportunity to play on a contender. Even one of the digital variety.

Jharel Cotton (4% Yahoo, 6.4% ESPN, 22% CBS) – one of a trio of young arms acquired in the deal that sent Josh Reddick and Rich Hill to the Dodgers, Cotton dazzled in his debut last Wednesday against the Angels. Though to be fair, Mike Trout and Albert Pujols both sat meaning Cotton faced just three hitters all day sporting a wRC+ over 100. Regardless, two walks and two hits over 6.1 IP in a Major League debut is noteworthy. It’s especially noteworthy when said starter entered his debut with a 20.25% career MiLB K-BB% and the notoriety and fanfare associated with being a Fringe Five darling.

Cotton features a four pitch mix, from which his changeup truly stands out; Eric Longenhagen recently graded it as plus-plus. Long-time Cotton champion, Carson Cistulli, also recently expounded upon the attributes that make his changeup great as only he can here. The fastball sits in the low 90s and touches 94 setting up an unsporting 15 mph differential. He also mixes in a slider and occasional curve but primarily lives off that devastating change. Throwing 25 in last Wednesday’s start, Cotton generated 14 swings and 4 misses, perhaps none more chortle-worthy than this.

Despite setting off some alarm bells in warmups, Cotton lived in the zone, raked in the first pitch strikes, and induced an impressive number of whiffs. He did however, do this.

Normally, one homer in one game, particularly a debut, would hardly be worth noting except the word on Cotton is that he’s homer prone. I don’t know that I necessarily share these concerns (yet) but I do feel compelled to at least present the evidence.

Cotton has suffered two bouts of gopheritis in his career, one of which came over 125 innings in High-A ball in 2014 and the other this season in AAA prior to joining the A’s organization. Now, these two stops represent the two longest stints of his minor league career, so while I’m plugging him into my lineups immediately, I’m also hesitant to shrug the homers off. And in his debut on Wednesday, Cotton sat a little higher in the zone than I’d like to see. Angels hitters hit fly balls in 65% of their ABs but fortunately only one did any damage as Cotton limited hard contact both on the ground and in the air for the rest of the day. Against a more potent lineup, Cotton’s line could have looked much different so it’ll be important to watch his fly ball rate as he racks up Major League starts.

On the other hand, while Oklahoma City has a below average HR park factor, we know what a hitter’s haven the rest of the Pacific Coast League is. So we have to take any inflated home run rates with a grain of salt. For his career, Cotton’s HR/9 sits under 1 and he gave up just 3 homers with AAA-Nashville over 38.1 innings. While the homers are something to watch for, it may also be too early to ascribe the homer prone label just yet.

Cotton’s stinginess with the free pass and his ability to miss bats make him an exciting add over the final weeks and a no brainer if he’s still available in dynasty formats. His schedule is a mixed bag with favorable match-ups against the Royals and Angels book-ending precarious turns against the Rangers, including one in Arlington on Sunday.

Cotton wasn’t in the A’s plans at the start of the season but half a dozen pitcher injuries later, he is now and looks to be for a while. An incredible changeup and impressive control highlight a package that should provide strikeouts and quality innings down the stretch and for those looking towards next year, Cotton is worth the add.

Jefry Marte (3% Yahoo, 8% ESPN, 8% CBS) – so, about those three Angels I mentioned above with a wRC+ over 100. One of them happens to be Marte. The 25-year old native of the Dominican Republic has been accumulating both ABs and position eligibility, sporting the 1B, 3B, and OF designations in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. Over the last month, he’s been particularly effective, posting a .233 ISO and 132 wRC+ to go with four homers and his fair share of walks. Marte’s hot hitting over that time has brought his overall season line up to .263/.311/.483 but more importantly marks a significant change in his approach. Please forgive the arbitrary endpoints but:

So he’s chasing less, making more contact in the zone, falling behind in the count less frequently, and whiffing less. All good things. He also seems to be hitting the ball harder too but in doing so he’s doubled down on his pull happy approach. In fact, his Pull% ranks third in baseball over that time and his tendency to go the other way, dead last.

This should make him easy to defend but for whatever reason, opposing defenses have yet to adjust. In fact, they’ve shifted just 7 times over the last month, or for just 15% of his plate appearances, a nominal adjustment over the 12% of the time defenses shifted prior to then (also to be clear, the shift frequency data I cite only counts plate appearances ending in a ball-in-play so we’re not factoring in times the defense shifted and Marte struck out, got beaned, took a walk etc.).

Against righties, teams absolutely should shift as Marte is far more likely to pull a ball into the ground, doing so on 65% of his ground balls and half is ABs overall. Over the last month, his splits are even more extreme as his ground ball Pull% has spiked to nearly 75%. Strangely though, defenses are shifting Marte more frequently against lefties, despite the fact that he’s far more likely to go the opposite way.

The table above illustrates that teams are shifting nearly twice as often when Marte is actually less likely to pull the ball and specifically pull a ball on the ground. Marte’s improvement over the last 30 days has been notable in that he’s swinging at better pitchers and making better contact which have led to better results. But his most significant change has come against lefties and teams have yet to catch on.

And wouldn’t you know it, the Angels are scheduled to face lefties J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano, and Cole Hamels over the next 10 days setting Marte up nicely. Given his recent adjustments at the plate and upcoming matchups with southpaws, he’s definitely worth a flier over the final couple weeks of the season, at least so long as defenses insist on teeing him up.