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I have a total of 28 preseason prediction type articles I need to review, so let’s get rolling! Fingers are crossed that these recaps don’t make me look like a fool. Let’s begin by reviewing my spring training starting pitchers strikeout rate surgers and breakout candidates. The idea here was that underlying skills posted during spring training do carry em>some predictive value, so perhaps those starting pitchers that enjoyed a strikeout rate spike would see a jump in rate during the regular season as well.

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Well, the season is over! This is the second full season of xStats, and they have undergone numerous upgrades over that span. I some of you found them interesting! Perhaps even useful. With this second season under the belt, it feels fitting to throw out a few xStats awards: Best Starting Pitcher, Best Relief Pitcher, and Best Batter. So, without further ado, here we go:

Best Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw.

Not a terribly big surprise. He has the best curve ball in MLB by xOBA, registering only .126 (min 200 thrown). His slider has the 7th highest swinging strike rate, 23.5% (min 200 thrown). You can see all of the pitch stats here.  It will come as no surprise when I say Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, he’s just about the best in every individual category xStats measures. No other pitcher really got anywhere close to his dominance. While Noah Syndergaard and Jose Fernandez got somewhat close to Kershaw scFIP and xOBA respectively, the gap between Kershaw and the second best picture is still impressively wide. There is little more I can say about Kershaw, he needs to get called up to a higher league to face better opponents, MLB is too easy for him. Read the rest of this entry »

There were big expectations for Marcus Stroman coming into last season on the heels of a strong rookie campaign that saw him throw 130.7 innings of 3.65 ERA, but a very impressive 2.84 FIP. A heavy groundball focus, 4.0 K:BB ratio, and stifling homers (0.5 per 9) laid the foundation for the lofty expectations before a torn ACL in Spring Training put all of that on hold. To his credit, he returned in time to make four starts in the regular season and three more in the postseason which rejuvenated the hype to the point where he was the 26th starter off the board this past draft season.

I don’t need to a deep breakdown of his season to show that it didn’t live up to said hype. His 4.37 ERA says it all. However, he did have a 3.71 FIP and the breakdown of his season might actually be enough to yet again foster some hype heading into his age-26 campaign. He likely won’t go as a top-30 arm again, but those who look beyond the surface stats will see a tale of two halves, the second of which saw a surge in strikeouts unlike anything he’d done before and at no expense to his league-best 60% groundball rate. This jump in strikeouts will be our focus today.

(By the way, I’m splitting the sample right down the middle – April through June, July through September.)

In the first half, he pitched to a 5.33 ERA in 101.3 innings with just a 16% strikeout rate – worse than the passable-but-modest 20% rate he’d posted in 2014-15. His fastball was the biggest issue, netting a 7% strikeout rate that stood 94th of the 96 qualified starters. This folds in both his four-seamer and sinker, but neither were anywhere near the 16% league average strikeout rate for fastballs. Adding in the cutter boosted him to 10%, but he still slotted just 81st. The soft stuff had a passable 31% mark, just over the 29% average, but the slider, curve, and change accounted for just 30% of his plate appearances, muting the impact of those strikeouts.

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I usually get three or four of these Bold Predictions right every year, and I’ve grown comfortable with that level of success. Any more and they aren’t bold enough, any less, and they’re useless. That said, wait till you see number one. It’s a doozy. It’s *so* wrong that it should probably invalidate all my hits. It’s *so* wrong that I’m questioning why any of you are here right now. It’s *so* wrong I want to throw crap.

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First, a few words about my offseason writing at Rotographs. Besides reporting any possible relevant fantasy news, I plan on systematically going through two groups of players and work on their 2017 values. I will start at the top of the 2017 rankings and also somewhere in the middle and work my way down each list. I may be able to do a handful of players each article or I might by limited to just the two players. Either way, I will start putting together a 2017 draft ranking.

Additionally, I will try to follow Eno’s schedule for the other writers (e.g. players on playoff teams for the next couple of weeks). If they are looking at outfielders for that specific week, I will also look at outfielders.

The other project I will work through is being able to put a better evaluation on prospects for fantasy purposes. I will use the evaluations of various prospect writers and publications and put their evaluations into something which can be used in fantasy circles. I have some ideas of what I want to accomplish, but I am sure there will be some roadblocks and detours on the way. I will start this series Friday.

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This will be my final starting pitcher streamers article of the season and sadly, my final article of the regular season. So if you’re in the thick of the championship run, let’s take a gander at some of the starting pitchers you should consider streaming that are likely to be available in your league.

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Last week I unveiled my Top 24 Pitchers for 2017 and yes, it was an amazing list, I know, buuuuttt I feel like your appetites weren’t satiated so here’s the next 16 pitchers on my list right now giving you a top 40 to chew on until at least November.

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Friday brings a full slate of games, including a ton in which lesser owned pitchers are scheduled to start. Rather than discuss each one, I’ll instead just discuss those worthy of streaming.

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Congratulations on playing meaningful (fake) baseball this late into the season! At this point, your nerves, eyes, and pitching staff are shot, and you’re plugging leaks with sieves. Or maybe I’m just projecting.

Either way, maybe you’ll find this guide to the rest of the week’s streamers useful. If you’re in a redraft roto, I suggest using up your innings by Friday. The best prospect pitchers probably don’t have the innings to step in and pitch five or six on the weekend, the veterans will get some rest, and you’ll be left with some unsavory matchups, in large part, if you wait for Saturday and Sunday to blow out the rest of your innings.

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