Archive for Starting Pitchers

It’s that time of year when teams will be churning through starting pitchers hope to improve their Strikeout and Win totals. Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned guys (under 10% owned):

Buck Farmer (1% Yahoo) at Cleveland (vs. Mike Clevinger)

Just looking on the surface, I would say roll with Farmer and collect some strikeouts (8.9 K/9) and take an ERA hit. The problem is that those strikeouts came early in the season. In his major-league stint in June, he posted 11.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Since returning, those numbers are 5.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. There’s no guarantee his strikeouts will return.

Additionally, his flyball nature (48% FB%) has pushed his home run rate up to 1.7 HR/9. The home runs have inflated his ERA up to 6.32 with his ERA estimators hovering around five.

With Cleveland hitting on all cylinders right now, the Win is unlikely. With little chance for the Win and strikeouts, I would pass on him. Read the rest of this entry »

Dillon Peters

• The 24-year-old, 5’9 lefty throws straight to home (no weird angles) from ¾ arm slot. I watched his last start from September 6th when he faced the Nationals.

• Fastball: 88-92 mph and it usually had a late dip. A few other times it had as much rise as a normal four-seamer. Looking at the pitch information, it seems to be just one pitch considering the spin axis. One possible explanation is that he lost fastball velocity as the game went on.

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As the season winds down, here are two pitchers who owners may want to consider as options as other starters get shut down.

Lucas Giolito

Over the last year or so, I haven’t been kind to Lucas Giolito. In four starts major league starts last season, he issued more walks (5.1 BB/9) than strikeouts (4.6 K/9). His fastball velocity dropped from the high to the low 90’s. He was a top ten prospect coming into the 2016 season but his stock dropped to the point where his 2017 prospect rankings were closer to 50th overall.

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It’s the final month of the season and every pitching matchup holds extra weight. Maybe one of your regular arms is slated pitch in Coors and in Arlington or you’re in need of an extra few starts from now through September 14th. Over at my site Pitcher List, I helped tackle this question by outlining the Top 100 Starters for the rest of the season according to their ROS schedules, providing estimations for each starter’s schedule from now until the end of the year. Instead of focusing on the entire month of September, here we’re going to take a look at ten lesser owned arms that could help you later this week or find themselves in good matchups for the next round:

Note: Owned rates are according to ESPN Leagues.

Good Matchups

Kyle Gibson (@KCR, SDP) – 8.7% owned

You may be surprised to see Gibson here. I’m surprised to see Gibson here. His career 6.17 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, and 4.73 ERA have secured him a comfortable spot on the third page of your waiver wire for ages, but in his last three starts, Gibson has been a new man, sporting a 1.37 ERA, 9.15 K/9, and 0.92 BB/9. His whiff rates have jumped to 13.9% in those starts after a near 9.0% prior and given he’s facing the paltry lineups of the Royals and Padres next, he’s worth a look for your squad.

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A quick look at some August standouts and how likely they are to be useful for the September stretch run:

Luke Weaver | Cardinals – 1.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 34% K, 27% K-BB in 21 IP

The 23-year old right’s emergence in August might’ve facilitated the trade of Mike Leake to Seattle on Wednesday. Weaver has fanned 10 in both of his last two starts thanks in large part to a 34% K rate with both his fastball and changeup. After 119.3 IP last year and 124.7 two years ago, he shouldn’t have issues making it to the finish line this year with 106.7 under his belt so far.

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Some quick thoughts on a pair of AL East arms who threw on Monday:

Pomeranz Soaring Despite An Interesting Flaw

It wasn’t Drew Pomeranz’s best effort, but he managed a baseline quality start and wiggled out trouble that a 2.00 WHIP would normally lead allowing him to hand a lead to the bullpen after the Red Sox jumped the Jays for four in the seventh. I don’t hear many Red Sox fans clamoring for Anderson Espinoza these days (the return for Pomy last summer) as Pomeranz has been the team’s second-best starter behind Chris Sale this year.

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Pitchers who lose velocity early in the season get noticed immediately and get an “injury” or “something’s wrong” label. This late in the season, velocity changes can come in as noise as pitchers have 20 games of good numbers to even out the results. Here are a few pitchers seeing a recent drop in their velocity whose owners might not have noticed.

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If you’re just looking at the full season results, you may not be aware of how fantastic Patrick Corbin has been. In his last 14 starts, he has posted a 2.69 ERA and 3.47 SIERA, reminding us of his breakout 2013 season. After missing the entire 2014 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Corbin picked up right where he left off when he returned in 2015, posting a 3.60 ERA/3.44 SIERA over 16 starts. But then he suddenly fell apart last year as his control deserted him, he was afflicted with gopheritis, and his ERA ballooned to 5.15 as a result. And now, the Corbin with sterling control and the wicked slider is back.

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Interestingly, it feels like I haven’t heard nearly as much this year about pitchers coming close to a potential innings limit. Actually, I’ve heard nary a peep about such a risk. But maybe it’s just because I don’t read other fantasy or real baseball news sites or fantasy message boards. But whether or not others have discussed it yet or not, there are going to be a smattering of starting pitchers who are shut down before the season ends. Let’s discuss four that may face such an early shut down.

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You wouldn’t know it if you were just focusing on his 3.42 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but this has easily been Cole Hamels‘ worst season as a Major Leaguer. His SIERA, xFIP, and FIP have all jumped above 4.00 for the first time, while both his xFIP- and FIP- have surged into the triple digits for the first time (higher is worse). Hamels missed two months of action thanks to an oblique strain, but since it was a non-arm injury, we certainly couldn’t blame it for the collapse of his underlying skills. What’s going on here?

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